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UFC Fight Night: Thiago Santos vs. Magomed Ankalaev: Betting Data, Odds, and Preview

Johnny Covers has you covered for the Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev fight with betting data, odds, and a preview.
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UFC Fight Night: Thiago Santos vs. Magomed Ankalaev: Betting Data, Odds, and Preview

When: March 12, 7:00 PM EDT

Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

After a great night of fights at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV last weekend, the UFC heads just down the road to its home at the UFC Apex for UFC Fight Night 203. Headlining the night’s festivities will be a five-round bout between two light heavyweights trending in opposite directions. 

In one corner, former light heavyweight championship contender Thiago Santos (#5) will look to begin one final run up the rankings for another title shot. His challenger, however, is one of the hottest young fighters in the promotion, as Magomed Ankalaev makes his main event debut. 

Let’s take a closer look at both fighters, and see where the action is headed as Saturday approaches.

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Thiago Santos (22-9-0)

Since joining the UFC back in 2013, Santos has had an impressive list of wins that rivals almost everyone’s in the light heavyweight division. With victories over Jack Hermansson, Anthony Smith, Kevin Holland, and the current #1 contender and former champ Jan Blachowicz, Santos has proved time and time again he can stand and hammer with the best of them.

With 68% of his wins coming via KO/TKO, Santos has shown a propensity for power in a division filled with killers. Of his last four wins, three have come via TKO/KO, and having missed one in his last victory against Johnny Walker, I suspect he’ll be aiming for one Saturday at the apex. He also comes into this fight having lost three of his last four, and desperate for a win to stay relevant in the division. 

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Magomed Ankalaev (16-1-0)

Just twice has Ankalaev fought in the United States, with his last coming in February here at the Apex, a decision win over Nikita Krylov. A sambo specialist fighting out of Dagestan, Ankalaev is a grappling specialist that tends to turn his fights into ground and pound affairs.

The striking power is there, however, as Ankalaev comes into Saturday with a significant striking accuracy of 64.57%, landing 3.60 per minute. Both of those are slight edges over Santos, but the biggest difference comes on the ground with a takedown average of 1.15 per 15 minutes, almost double that of Santos (.61).

Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev Odds

Since opening up as a -158 favorite, Ankalaev has seen one-sided action, getting as high as -650 at BetMGM, with Caesars (-550) currently posting the best number. As far as the veteran Santos goes, the +134 underdog has ballooned as high as +450 at BetMGM.

Click here to see the latest betting odds for Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev

Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev Odds & Public Betting Data

According to Oddshark, the overwhelming majority of public support has thus far come in on Anakalaev, with 95% of the action in the favored direction. As fight night approaches, I expect to see some buyback on the heavy underdog, especially if he reaches +500.

How To Bet On Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev

Now we’ve given you all odds and betting data you need to wager on UFC Fight Night, let’s dive into the best betting promo available to you.

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Johnny has been covering the sports betting markets and handicapping games for the better part of the past decade. Along the way, he has written for publications such as All-In Magazine, Blitz Predict, FantasyPros, Betting Pros, Sportsbook Review, and most recently, OddsChecker. In addition to giving out picks on Twitter, Johnny is the host of the podcast The Daily Sports Bet -- a 10 minute or less listen with actionable insights and no fluff or BS. Starting the podcast in June, he closed out 2021 up 26 units with a winning percentage of 55%.


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