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Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez Odds: Ortega Given 63% Chance to Scrap His Way to Another Title Shot

It’s a featherweight banger in the main event on Saturday afternoon! Trent Pruitt breaks down the odds, stats, and trends that matter for Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez.
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Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez Odds: Ortega Given 63% Chance to Scrap His Way to Another Title Shot

UFC Fight Night Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

When: July 16

Time: 2:00 PM EDT

Where: UBS Arena, Elmont, NY

Where to Watch: ABC & ESPN+

Click Here for Complete UFC Fight Night Odds

The UFC hits the road this weekend and heads to Long Island, New York, where we’re settling in for a pretty stacked non-PPV card. This Fight Night main card is littered with numbered fighters, including a highly anticipated main event between #2 Brian Ortega and #3 Yair Rodriguez. The winner will likely punch their ticket to a five-round championship bout with Alexander Volkanovski. Let’s get into the odds, each fighter’s recent history, and the stats and tendencies that matter for this marquee featherweight bout.

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Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez Prediction

BRIAN ORTEGA (15-2-0, 1 NC) 

Brian Ortega will make the walk for the first time since dropping a championship fight with Alexander Volkanovski back in September of 2021. The American-born brawler had the champ on the ropes, giving Volkanovski arguably the toughest challenge of his five title fights. Ultimately, Volk got the better of Ortega and pushed to 0-2 in featherweight championship bouts, where he previously lost to Max Holloway in December of 2018 via knockout in the fourth round. Sandwiched in between the two title fights is a win over the Korean Zombie, a decision victory in which Ortega outstruck Zombie 127-62. 

The 31-year-old boasts a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and he’s often used it throughout his career. Ortega averages 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes and has three submission finishes in the UFC octagon. Two of those tapout victories have come by guillotine choke, while the third was a triangle choke against Diego Brandao in 2016. Ortega’s landing 4.15 significant strikes per minute at a 38% success rate while absorbing 6.69 strikes per minute. 

YAIR RODRIGUEZ (14-3-0, 1 NC) 

Yair Rodriguez is coming off of a losing effort to Max Holloway in November of last year. It was an absolute war, a striking clinic from a pair of the top strikers in the featherweight division. While Rodriguez put up a great effort, it was pretty clear that Holloway controlled the contest. He outstruck Rodriguez 230-159 and added a trio of takedowns over the five rounds.

El Pantera comes into this bout averaging 4.65 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.09. He’s not too crafty in the takedown department, averaging just 0.86 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing at a 28% clip. On the flip side, he’s defending 60% of opposing attempts while trying 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes. It’s worth mentioning that Rodriguez is a black belt in Taekwondo, and he’s been known to throw plenty of leg kicks throughout his fights.


Brian Ortega opened as a -163 favorite in this headlining fight. His odds have stayed pretty constant throughout the week, and you can still get him at -170 at Caesars. As for Rodriguez, the best value for him as an underdog is +145 (via Caesars). 

OddsFighterImplied Chance
-170Brian Ortega63%
+145Yair Rodriguez40.8%

Click Here for Ortega vs Rodriguez Odds


69% of the betting public is backing Brian Ortega to come through as a favorite and get his hand raised on Saturday afternoon. 


Now that we have the best odds for each competitor, these fighters’ tendencies and statistics, and what the public thinks about this fight, check out the best betting promos available.

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Trent is a Chicago native who has been an avid sports fan since he could walk. He played sports throughout his youth and played collegiate rugby at Arizona State University. Trent still resides in Arizona, where he spends his days covering sports from a sports betting perspective. He fell in love with the analytical side of sports in his late teens and has been following the sports betting industry for 10+ years now! You can follow him on Twitter and Instagram for all of his sports betting picks at @Trentbets.


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