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Michelle Waterson vs. Amanda Lemos Odds: 60% of Bets on Michelle Waterson to Upset Amanda Lemos

A ranked co-main event between #10 Michelle Waterson and #11 Amanda Lemos! Trent Pruitt breaks this one down and provides the odds and stats to help you have a profitable night on the canvas.
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Michelle Waterson vs. Amanda Lemos Odds: 60% of Bets on Michelle Waterson to Upset Amanda Lemos

UFC Fight Night Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

When: July 16

Time: 2:00 PM EDT

Where: UBS Arena, Elmont, NY

Where to Watch: ABC & ESPN+

Click Here for Complete UFC Fight Night Odds

The UFC hits the road this weekend and heads to Long Island, New York, where we’re settling in for a pretty stacked non-PPV card. This Fight Night main card is littered with numbered fighters, including a co-main event between a pair of ranked veterans in #10 Michelle Waterson and #11 Amanda Lemos. Let’s get into the odds, each fighter’s recent history, and the stats and tendencies that matter for this women’s strawweight bout.

Michelle Waterson vs. Amanda Lemos Prediction


36-year-old Michelle Waterson has been trending downward in recent history. The Karate Hottie is coming off of a loss to Marina Rodriguez in May of 2021, and she’s now lost three out of her last four contests. All four of those fights have ended via decision, with the lone victory coming via split decision over Angela Hill. Waterson was outstruck 131-128 in the fight, but she managed a takedown to secure the win. 

The American is pretty active in the takedown department, averaging 1.40 takedowns landed per 15 minutes at a 32% success rate. As for striking, Waterson enters this co-main event averaging 3.57 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 4.13 per minute. It’s worth mentioning that the veteran mixed martial artist is a black belt in American Freestyle Karate and a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. 

AMANDA LEMOS (11-2-1) 

Amanda Lemos saw her five-fight win streak snapped the last time she stepped into the octagon. The 35-year-old Brazilian was submitted via arm triangle at the hands of Jessica Andrade back in April of this year. The submission came just 3:13 into the first round in a fight where Lemos was out-striking Andrade 7-3 up to that point.

Lemos can do a little bit of everything in the cage in terms of her stylistic approach. She’s 5-2 in the UFC octagon, with two of those wins coming via knockout, two by decision, and she has a rear naked choke on her resume. Lemos is averaging an impressive 5.14 significant strikes per minute at a 57% clip while absorbing 4.42 strikes per minute. She’s also versatile when it comes to grappling. Lemos is defending 88% of opposing takedown attempts while landing 1.22 per 15 minutes at a 57% success rate. 


Lemos opened as a massive -400 favorite to get her hand raised on Saturday. However, the public is putting their money behind Waterson, driving Lemos’ odds down to -305 (via DraftKings). As for the underdog, you can still get her as high as +270 at Caesars. 

OddsFighterImplied Chance
-305Amanda Lemos75.3%
+270Michelle Waterson27%

Click Here for Waterson vs Lemos Odds


Despite being a +270 underdog, 60% of the betting public is backing Michelle Waterson to pull off the upset on Saturday afternoon.


Now that we have the best odds for each competitor, these fighters’ tendencies and statistics, and what the public thinks about this fight, check out the best betting promos available.

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Trent is a Chicago native who has been an avid sports fan since he could walk. He played sports throughout his youth and played collegiate rugby at Arizona State University. Trent still resides in Arizona, where he spends his days covering sports from a sports betting perspective. He fell in love with the analytical side of sports in his late teens and has been following the sports betting industry for 10+ years now! You can follow him on Twitter and Instagram for all of his sports betting picks at @Trentbets.


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