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Carla Esparza vs. Weili Zhang Odds: Weili Zhang Given 77% Chance to Defeat Carla Esparza at UFC 281

Carla Esparza vs. Weili Zhang odds and betting breakdown for Saturday's fight at UFC 281. When Carla Esparza vs. Weili Zhang odds opened, the fight was seen as a close contest. Now, Weili Zhang has opened up a massive lead with the sportsbooks.
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Carla Esparza vs. Weili Zhang Odds: Weili Zhang Given 77% Chance to Defeat Carla Esparza at UFC 281

When: Saturday, November 12, 10:00 p.m. ET / 7:00 p.m. PT

Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Before the #2 pound-for-pound fighter on the planet Israel Adesanya puts that ranking and his middleweight belt on the line in the main event, there’s another title fight in the co-main event that should not disappoint. When Carla Esparza takes on Weili Zhang on Saturday night, she’ll be putting her recently acquired strawweight belt on the line for the first time looking to pull off her first-ever successful defense. 

Let’s take a closer look at both fighters, and where the odds are headed as fight night approaches in The Big Apple. 

We have over $5,000 in free bets waiting for you to claim for Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili at UFC 281

Carla Esparza (19-6-0, 4 KOs)

Picking up her first strawweight title via beating Rose Namajunas in The Ultimate Fighter season 20 finale, Esparza lost it to Joanna Jedrzejczyk in her next fight, losing four of her next seven in seemingly fading into obscurity with the promotion. 

Then, in April 2019, Esparza got back on track with a win over Virna Jandrioba and hasn't looked back since, picking up far more wins before her second title fight against Namajunas in May. As a massive underdog, Esparza got the job done once again, this time via a split decision in a fight she in reality dominated.

Right now, you can bet $5 at DraftKings on any fighter at UFC 281 this weekend. If they win, you win an extra $200!

Weili Zhang (22-3-0, 11 KOs)

Beginning her pro MMA career in 2013, Weili lost that initial fight before going on to win 21 straight un en route to an August 2019 UFC title fight. Beating Jessica Andrade for the strawweight belt then, Weili defended it once vs. Jedrzejczyk before ultimately losing to Namajunas via KO/TKO in April 2021. 

She’d lose the rematch to Namajunas as well, beating Jedrzejczyk for a second time in June to set up this fight, Weili’s fourth time fighting for the belt. On paper, this fight is about as close as a fight could be, with the only big edge coming in Weili’s significant strikes landed per minute at 5.78.

Carla Esparza vs Zhang Weili Odds

FighterOddsImplied Probability
Carla Esparza+30025%
Weili Zhang-34077.3%

Click here for the latest Carla Esparza vs. Weili Zhang odds

For one of the few times in UFC history, the champion came into the odds market as a sizeable underdog, having only grown in size since. Opening at -150, Weili has ballooned as high as -340 as fight night approaches, with Esparza moving from +130 to +300.

As of Tuesday night, BetRivers has the best number (+310) on the champ, while favorite bettors would be best suited to head over to FanDuel (-360) to get down their action. 

Click here to see the latest betting odds for Carla Esparza vs Weili Zhang

How To Bet On Carla Esparza vs Zhang Weili

Now that you have the low down on Carla Esparza vs. Weili Zhang, let’s take a closer look at the best promos for you to get in on the action


Johnny has been covering the sports betting markets and handicapping games for the better part of the past decade. Along the way, he has written for publications such as All-In Magazine, Blitz Predict, FantasyPros, Betting Pros, Sportsbook Review, and most recently, OddsChecker. In addition to giving out picks on Twitter, Johnny is the host of the podcast The Daily Sports Bet -- a 10 minute or less listen with actionable insights and no fluff or BS. Starting the podcast in June, he closed out 2021 up 26 units with a winning percentage of 55%.


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