Nurmagomedov vs. Gaethje Odds: 56.5% of All Bets on Khabib to Win

Over half of bettors are expecting Khabib Nurmagomedov to remain undefeated after UFC 254
Brian Good
Tue, October 13, 10:13 AM EDT

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje Preview

It’s been over a year since we’ve last seen Khabib Nurmagomedov in a UFC octagon, but that certainly hasn’t diminished any of the excitement surrounding his next bout. On Saturday, October 24 at UFC 254 on Fight Island, the unbeaten Russian will return to the ring to take on Justin Gaethje, the interim lightweight champion.

One may expect such a long layoff from fighting to drive down the price of the former champ, but oddsmakers aren’t concerned with the time off. As of Tuesday, Nurmagomedov is still a massive favorite and the majority of bettors are backing him to move to 29-0 in his career.

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Khabib Nurmagomedov is considered by many to be one of the best UFC fighters of his generation. He’s currently the No. 2 pound-for-pound fighter in the company, behind another GOAT in Jon Jones.

His last fight was against Dustin Poirier ended with a bloodied Poirier tapping out in the third round. Three of Kahbib’s last five wins have come via submission, along with 10 of his 28 career victories.

He’s widely regarded as one of, if not THE, best wrestler in the UFC, and uses relentless pressure to force his opponents into a corner. That style will make for an interesting clash with Gaethje come October 24.

Justin Gaethje

A former Division I wrestler, Gaethje has abandoned his wrestling roots in the UFC and often looks to win the fight on his feet with devastating punching power.

Gaethje’s last 11 fights have all ended via KO or TKO, and he’s won nine of those 11 bouts. His last loss came in 2018 to Poirier, Nurmagomedov’s last opponent.

Despite the fact that he comes from a wrestling background, expect Gaethje to keep the fight standing when he can and try and land massive blows to weaken or stop Khabib. The key will be whether or not he can do what no one else has been able to do against the undefeated Russian: Slow him down enough to make him take his foot off the gas.

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje Betting Breakdown

The best odds you can currently find on Khabib Nurmagomedov sit at -250, but he’s as short as -340 in some places. That brings up another great example of how shopping for the best price can make sure you maximize your profit.

A $100 bet on Khabib at -340 wins you $29.41, but that same wager at -250 would bring in $40. At -250, oddsmakers are implying a 71.4% chance he wins the UFC 254 main event. Despite his short odds. Bettors are also favoring Nurmagomedov as 56.5% of all moneyline wagers are on him to win.

Gaethje is currently +240, which means oddsmakers give him a 29.4% shot at pulling off the upset. Even with the long odds, bettors aren’t convinced he can beat the undefeated Khabib.

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Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje Odds

Fighter ML Odds (Click to Bet) Public Betting % Winnings on $100 Wager
Justin Gaethje +225 56.5% $225
Khabib Nurmagomedov -250 43.5% $40
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