UFC 255 Odds: Shevchenko the Massive Favorite Over Maia

Can Jennifer Maia pull off the major upset on Saturday night?
Brian Good
Sat, November 21, 4:45 PM

We’ve already taken a look at one half of the UFC 255 co-main event HERE, but what about when Valentina Shevchenko and Jennifer Maia meet in the octagon at the UFC Apex on Saturday in Las Vegas?

Well, if you’re going to go by the betting markets and odds, it’s fairly clear that Maia, a massive underdog, stands almost no chance of pulling off the upset. But, with her odds so long, the price has been good enough for just short of half of all bettors to back her.

UFC 255: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jennifer Maia Betting Breakdown

You usually don’t see implied probabilities in the 90th-percentile for main events, but that’s exactly what we have in Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jennifer Maia.

Shevchenko has not lost a professional fight to someone other than Amanda Nunes in over 10 years, with her last defeat at the hands of Nunes coming via a split decision. She’s the second-best female fighter in the company and her odds for Saturday night’s fight reflect just that.

Shevchenko is currently an overwhelming favorite, with her best odds sitting at -1500 and implying a 93.8% chance she wins. Even more alarming, she’s as short as -2000 in some places.

Meanwhile, Maia is 18-6 overall in her professional career with a 3-2 record since joining the UFC in 2018. She has wins over Alexis Davis, Roxanne Modafferi and Joanne Calderwood, with losses to Liz Carmouche and Katlyn Chookagian. Carmouche is also the only person not named Amanda Nunes to ever defeat Shevchenko.

Maia’s best odds for Saturday’s UFC 255 co-main event are +1000, which imply just a 9.1% chance she upsets Shevchenko, but that hasn’t scared off bettors. As of Saturday afternoon, 42.22% of all moneyline wagers are on the longshot.

UFC 255: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jennifer Maia Odds

Fighter Odds Implied Probability Public Betting %
Valentina Shevchenko -1500 93.8% 57.78%
Jennifer Maia +1000 9.1% 42.22%
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