Usman vs. Burns Odds: Almost 75% of Bettors Backing Underdog Burns

Can Gilbert Burns pull off the upset against Kamaru Usman? Bettors seem to think so
Brian Good
Tue, February 9, 11:21 AM EST

Usman vs. Burns Odds: Almost 75% of Bettors Backing Underdog Burns

At one point, Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns were teammates, sparring and training together while climbing through the ranks of the UFC. This weekend, they’ll be sworn enemies as they face off in the main event at UFC 258.

Usman and Burns have been scheduled to fight for some time. Originally, they were expected to headline UFC 251 in July of last year. But, Burns tested positive for COVID-19 prior to the fight and was replaced by Jorge Masvidal, who Usman defeated.

Now Usman, who hasn’t lost a professional fight since the year 2013, will come in looking to defend his UFC welterweight title against Burns. Burns is coming off the biggest win of his career, a unanimous decision against former title holder Tyron Woodley, and looking to make himself into a household name by beating one of the best fighters in the company.

Can Burns beat his former teammate and training partner? Let’s take a look at the odds and betting trends for UFC 258 to find out.

Usman vs. Burns Betting Trends

It should come as no surprise that Kamaru Usman is entering Saturday’s bout as a sizeable favorite. Usman in 17-1 in his career and comes in riding a 16-fight win streak. Usman has notable wins over guys like Masvidal, Tyron Woodley and Colby Covington, to name a few.

The current welterweight champ is a massive -270 (Click to bet) favorite over Burns, which is relatively the same odds he had last time out against Masvidal, who he dismantled. Usman catches a lot of grief for being a “boring” fighter, controlling guys on the ground with his superior grappling, but those odds still give him a 73% implied probability to come away with the win.

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As for Burns, he comes in sporting a 19-3 overall record and riding a 6-fight win streak. His last loss came via KO at the hands of Dan Hooker, back in 2018. His best odds currently sit at +225, meaning oddsmakers are giving him just a 30% chance to pull off the upset.

Despite the fact that Usman hasn’t lost in almost eight years and Burns has been sidelined for just under a year, the majority of the betting public is riding with the underdog. A whopping 73.33% of all moneyline bets on this fight are on Burns, with just 26.67% of tickets backing the champ.

Usman vs. Burns Odds

Fighter Odds (Click to bet) Implied Probability Public Betting %
Kamaru Usman -270 73% 26.67%
Gilbert Burns +225 30% 73.33%
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