Penn State vs. Iowa Odds Week 6 Betting Preview, Odds and Prediction
Date: Saturday, October 9, 2021
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Location: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
TV Broadcast: FOX
Penn State Nittany Lions Record: 5-0, 2-0 Big Ten
Iowa Hawkeyes Record: 5-0, 2-0, Big Ten
Penn State vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Preview
A blockbuster, Big Ten showdown is on the cards as No.4 Penn State travels to take on the No.3 Iowa at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa this weekend. With the Nittany Lions and Hawkeyes undefeated through five rounds of college football action, first place is on the line as they battle for conference supremacy.
The stakes couldn’t be any higher for both these programs, prompting books to float a tight betting line for this game on Saturday and NCAA football odds that suggest the win is up for grabs.
The hosts opened at -2.5-points and the game total clocked in at 42.5 points. It didn’t take long before these lines were on the move, though. The line moved against Iowa as early betting came down the wire on Penn State, shrinking the point spread to -2 with most sportsbooks. Some sportsbooks have dropped down to -1, which is quite a significant drop, underlining further the unpredictability of this game right now.
Similarly, the game total dropped to anywhere between 41.5 and 40.5 points, depending on the market operator in question. This again marks another significant drop in the betting lines.
Penn State Odds & Overview
Penn State is riding a five-game winning streak into Week 6 of the college football season, capping their sensational run of form with an impressive 24-0 beatdown over Indiana last Saturday.
The win over Indiana was primarily a defensive masterclass. The Nittany Lions forced eight punts, two turnovers and blocked a field goal to lift Penn State to its fifth win of the season.
Quarterback Sean Clifford had a solid performance, going 17-of-33 for 178 yards and three touchdowns. He did have an interception on the day, but the Nittany Lions defense rendered it a moot point. Running back Keyvone Lee led the team in rushing with 74 yards on eight carries while Clifford added another 58 yards on ten carries. Wide receiver Jahan Dodson caught two touchdown passes while putting up 84 yards on eight receptions. Brendon Strange put up ten yards as he connected with Clifford for a passing touchdown.
Iowa Hawkeyes Odds & Overview
Iowa is coming off an impressive 51-14 rout over Maryland, extending its run of form to five straight wins in 2021. Iowa’s defense stole the show, forcing seven turnovers to help lift the Hawkeyes to the impressive win. They intercepted five of Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa’s passes, four of which came in a dominating second quarter that saw Iowa outscore Maryland 31-0.
Quarterback Spencer Petras was kept busy, and he barely had time to put his feet up on the sidelines before his defense was handing the ball back to him. Petras capitalized on those opportunities and put up five touchdowns – three passing and two on the ground.
It was an emphatic win in a game the Hawkeyes figured to be tested by Maryland’s passing game. Books had tipped Iowa as merely 3-point road favorites over Maryland, but the game was nowhere nearly as close as the odds suggested.
Petras finished the night with 21-of-30 for 258 yards and three touchdowns to zero interceptions. He added a couple of rushing scores to his tally. Tyler Goodson led the team in rushing with 66 yards on 19 carries, while Monte Pottebaum rushed 15 yards for a score. Goodson also led the team in receiving with 85 yards on two receptions and a touchdown.
Penn State vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Odds
|Penn State||+2||+110||Over 41|
Books opened this game with the slightest of leans towards the hosts, but that dissipated quickly as early betting came down the wire towards both Iowa and Penn State. According to consensus betting reports, the public is almost split down the middle (55% to 45%) between the pair and that has forced the market to adjust the odds accordingly.
As mentioned above, the point spread is down to -2 or, in some cases, as low as -1, depending on the preferred sportsbook. And the total is down to a low of 40.5 points after opening at 42.5 points.
Meanwhile, the moneyline odds are tighter than an accountants purse now with Iowa favored at -130 after opening at -160. Penn State is now tipped just shy of even money at +110 after opening at +130. In terms of winning probability, Iowa has a 56.5 percent probability of winning and Penn State has 47.6 percent probability of winning.
Penn State vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview
Very little separates Penn State and Iowa. They both have a 5-0 record and a 2-0 record in conference play. They’ve twice faced ranked opponents and won both those contests emphatically.
Point spread betting stats have Penn State and Iowa on identical records against the spread (ATS). The Nittany Lions have a 4-1-0 ATS record underscored by an 18-point winning margin on average and a +5.4 differential versus the spread. The Hawkeyes have a 4-1-0 ATS record underscored by a 21.6 winning margin on average and a +11.9 differential versus the spread.
On the defensive side of the ball, these two programs are exemplary. Penn State has allowed 12 points per game and conceded 314.2 yards per game. Iowa has allowed 11.6 points per game and surrendered 271.4 yards per game.
If there’s a slight difference, it might be on the offense. Sean Clifford and the Nittany Lions have been more explosive and consistent than Spencer Petras and the Hawkeyes offense. Of course, this could be a function of the Hawkeyes defense, thrusting Petras into a managerial role in a game.
Everything about this matchup is a coin toss, which makes predicting the outcome a challenge. It’s no wonder the public is split almost evenly between these standout Big Ten programs. However, Penn State, as the slight underdog, might be in the value spot with the edge on offense.