Penn State vs. Ohio State Odds, Picks and Betting Preview
Penn State vs. Ohio State Odds, Picks and Betting Preview
Among the highly-touted college football betting matchups in Week 9 is this primetime showdown between the Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes. While this would have been a top-10 showdown just a week ago, an upset loss by PSU has relegated them to No. 20 in the AP Poll. Given how Ohio State has been rolling of late, you could say the two teams enter Saturday’s tilt trending in opposite directions. Oddsmakers installed the Buckeyes as a hefty home favorite, and the line has only been bet up since.
Penn State vs. Ohio State Week 9 College Football Betting Odds, Picks, and Preview
Penn State Nittany Lions (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS)
Date: Saturday, October 30, 2021
Start Time: 7:30 PM EST
Location: Ohio Stadium — Columbus, OH
TV Coverage: ABC
Penn State Nittany Lions Preview
James Franklin and Penn State are stumbling into this massive road test following an outright loss to Illinois at home last weekend. It was just the third win of the year for the Illini and it took a horrendous performance from the Nittany Lions to even happen. One of the top defenses in both the Big Ten and the country overall suddenly could not stop the run. Two Illinois backs combined for over 360 yards rushing last Saturday. Penn State was fortunate to play nine overtimes giving up that kind of yardage on the ground.
Of further cause for concern was the fact that QB Sean Clifford actually returned to the lineup last week following the injury that knocked him out of the Iowa game. Even so, Penn State could only muster 227 yards of total offense for the game. Clifford threw for 165 and a score, but PSU’s rushing attack was nonexistent. The best way to attack Ohio State defensively is through the air, but the Nittany Lions will need to be a whole lot better up front regardless of their offensive game plan on Saturday. Last week’s loss was one of the largest college football betting upsets of the season. Illinois was 12-1 on the moneyline, yet emerged from Happy Valley with a win.
Ohio State Buckeyes Preview
Ryan Day and the Buckeyes have had little trouble ever since their home loss to Oregon back in Week 2. While their 21-point win over Tulsa probably could’ve been a bit more convincing, OSU has throttled a trio of Big Ten Conference opponents in each of their last three games. A defense that started the season looking very shaky has allowed all of 37 points in blowout wins over Rutgers, Maryland and Indiana. The Buckeyes held Indiana to just 128 yards of total offense in a 54-7 triumph this past Saturday. C.J. Stroud passed for 266 yards and four touchdowns while running back TreVeyon Henderson continued his stellar season with a pair of rushing TDs and a third score receiving.
Despite all of the early-season struggles, Ohio State has climbed right back into the upper echelon of the FBS in most defensive categories. They enter Saturday’s college football betting showdown ranked 17th in scoring defense. While they are still just sixth in the Big Ten in this same metric, it is clear that the unit has found its footing after the rough start. Four different Buckeyes recorded a sack in the win over Indiana.
Penn State vs. Ohio State State Betting Odds and Line Movement
|Team||Moneyline||ML Implied Probability||Spread||Total|
|Penn State||+700||12.5%||+18.5 (-110)||O 60 (-109)|
|Ohio State||-833||89.3%||-18.5 (-110)||U 60 (+100)|
Ohio State has taken the vast majority of bets thus far and has also seen the spread move in their favor. After being opened at -16, the Buckeyes are now laying -18.5 at home ahead of this Big Ten clash. OSU could be found as high as -19 in the Las Vegas market at the time of writing. This line might reach a full 20 points just yet.
While the point spread has been rising, the total has been shrinking. After opening at 63.5, the over/under has dropped down to the current number of 60 across the market. With Ohio State playing much better defensively and Penn State looking inept on offense last week, the move certainly can be justified.
Penn State vs. Ohio State Betting Picks and Prediction
Was last week’s game against Illinois a trap for Penn State? Perhaps they got caught looking ahead to this clash with the Buckeyes. Ohio State certainly didn’t fall victim to a similar fate as they destroyed Indiana. What the two results have combined to do is drive bettors to back the Buckeyes even as massive home favorites. While public perception is certainly on the side of OSU coming in, recent history in this series suggests that the betting odds might be getting a bit out of control.
After Penn State defeated Ohio State at home in 2016, the Buckeyes have won four straight in this rivalry. However, no margin of victory exceeded 13 points. Two of the wins came by a single point while the most recent meeting in Columbus saw OSU win by 11. One could certainly argue that this year’s Ohio State team is not quite as talented or as defensively sound as some of those recent squads. As this spread continues to be driven up, bettors will have an opportunity to grab a massive number with a contrarian road underdog that is suffering mightily from recency bias.
Penn State vs. Ohio State Prediction: Penn State +18.5 (-110)
Henry has had a passion for sports that few can match for as long as he can remember. What started out as a five-year-old taking interest in the New York Jets and their green jerseys has since become a full-fledged career as a writer and sports betting analyst. His coverage primarily includes the NFL, MLB, NBA, NASCAR, college football, and college basketball. In 2020, he ranked among the top-10 most accurate experts ATS in the BettingPros NFL season contest. You can follow Henry’s sports work on Twitter and other social media platforms @HankTimeSports.