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Michigan vs. Penn State Odds: Wolverines Travel To Happy Valley for Big 10 Showdown

Betting odds for key Big Ten clash hovering near a pick’em while sharps have hit under the total hard.
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Michigan vs. Penn State Odds: Wolverines Travel To Happy Valley for Big 10 Showdown

A pair of Big Ten Conference heavyweights are set to collide in Happy Valley this Saturday as the Michigan Wolverines travel to face the Penn State Nittany Lions. Both teams have also been among the best in the conference at covering college football betting spreads this season. While Michigan still has hopes of qualifying for the College Football Playoffs, Penn State would love to play spoiler for one of its biggest rivals. Oddsmakers view this Michigan vs Penn State showdown as a virtual coin flip.

Michigan vs. Penn State Week 11 College Football Betting Odds, Picks, and Preview

Michigan Wolverines (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS)

  • Date: Saturday, November 13, 2021
  • Start Time: 12 PM EST
  • Location: Beaver Stadium — State College, PA
  • TV Coverage: ABC

Michigan vs. Penn State odds

Michigan Wolverines Preview

If not for a second-half meltdown against their in-state rivals from East Lansing two weeks ago, Michigan would be entering this college football betting showcase unbeaten. The Wolverines would undoubtedly be seeded among the top-four in the College Football Playoff Rankings as well. It remains to be seen where Jim Harbaugh’s team stacks up in the official Week 11 rankings. However, one has to give Michigan a nod of approval for rebounding from their heartbreaking loss to MSU this past Saturday with a convincing win over Indiana. While the Hoosiers are admittedly shorthanded and playing with a freshman backup quarterback, the Wolverines still had to go out and take care of business after an emotional defeat.

It was truly the Hassan Haskins show for Michigan in last week’s victory. The senior running back continued his phenomenal year with a whopping 168 yards rushing on 27 carries and a score. QB Cade McNamara threw for a pair of TD passes in a game where he didn’t have to do all that much. Defensively, the Wolverines stymied the banged-up Indiana offense. Michigan has now held seven of nine opponents under 20 points on the season. Four of those teams have been held to 10 points or less. The Wolverines’ style is quite clear: pound the ball via the ground game and play solid defense. They rank second in the Big Ten in yards allowed per game and third in points allowed.

Penn State Nittany Lions Preview

James Franklin and Penn State finally got back in the win column this past weekend with a 17-point road win over Maryland. It snapped a two-game losing skid that saw two losses come in starkly differing fashions. After having one of their worst team performances of the season in an embarrassing home loss to Illinois, the Nittany Lions played Ohio State extremely tough two weeks ago. They were the right side in that one, successfully covering the college football betting spread as hefty underdogs. While the odds do list PSU as short home dogs ahead of Saturday’s matchup, this contest against Michigan is viewed as much more even.

Last week saw quarterback Sean Clifford play easily his best game since getting knocked out of Penn State’s loss at Iowa with an injury. He lit up the Maryland secondary for 363 yards passing and three touchdowns. Rather appropriately, all three went to the Nittany Lions’ top wideout, Jahan Dotson. He finished with a massive stat line of 11 receptions for 242 yards and the three scores. Ji’Ayir Brown came up with an interception for a PSU defense that ranks just behind Michigan in points allowed per game (16.7) for the season.

Michigan vs. Penn State Betting Odds and Line Movement

The following table displays the best Michigan vs Penn State college football betting odds and lines available in the market.

TeamMoneylineML Implied ProbabilitySpreadTotal
Michigan-10551.2%-1 (-105)O 48.5 (-110)
Penn State+10548.8%+1 (-115)U 48.5 (-110)

Michigan vs. Penn State odds

The point spread for this Big Ten battle continues to bounce back-and-forth over a true pick’em. Penn State was initially opened as a one-point favorite in the Las Vegas market. The line for this game currently varies from that same Penn State -1 number to the consensus Michigan -1. The implied win probability by current moneyline odds lists both teams within two percentiles of a dead-even 50%.

The college football betting total for this game has also shifted since opening at 52.5. A rush of money on the under has seen the line drop four full points to the current number of 48.5. Considering that these are two of the top-four teams in the Big Ten in scoring defense the move certainly makes sense on the surface.

Michigan vs. Penn State Betting Picks and Prediction

Can Jim Harbaugh win in a high-leverage game? That will be one of the narratives ahead of this highly-anticipated Big Ten collision on Saturday. The Wolverines know full well that they have to win out to have a shot at making the College Football Playoff. The first part of a grueling final three weeks lies in Happy Valley. Expect the Penn State faithful to show up in full force as they look to wash away the bad taste of losing to Illinois in their previous home game.

One potential issue for the Nittany Lions on Saturday could be their run defense. That being said, bettors should fully expect a better effort than PSU put forth against the run in the embarrassing Illinois loss. Will it be enough to slow down Hassan Haskins? Michigan typically splits carries evenly between him and Blake Corum, but the latter suffered an injury in last week’s win. If the Nittany Lions can successfully stop the run, Cade McNamara might be put in some vulnerable situations where he needs to make a play. This one is extremely tight, but it’s hard to go against Penn State on their home field.

Michigan vs. Penn State Prediction: Penn State ML (+105)


Henry has had a passion for sports that few can match for as long as he can remember. What started out as a five-year-old taking interest in the New York Jets and their green jerseys has since become a full-fledged career as a writer and sports betting analyst. His coverage primarily includes the NFL, MLB, NBA, NASCAR, college football, and college basketball. In 2020, he ranked among the top-10 most accurate experts ATS in the BettingPros NFL season contest. You can follow Henry’s sports work on Twitter and other social media platforms @HankTimeSports.


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