Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss Odds: Aggies Given 57.4% Chance to Beat Ole Miss
Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss Odds: Aggies Given 57.4% Chance to Beat Ole Miss
College Gameday is headed to The Grove this Saturday ahead of a monstrous SEC showdown between the Texas A&M Aggies and Ole Miss Rebels. Although both sides come in with two losses, neither has been mathematically eliminated from SEC Championship contention. Furthermore, an SEC title could very well propel one of these two teams to an improbable College Football Playoff berth. However, all of those goals disappear without a win in Saturday night’s head-to-head battle. The stakes are high and the atmosphere in Oxford will be electric. Oddsmakers have given the visitors a slight nod as college football betting favorites in this Texas A&M vs Ole Miss matchup.
Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss Week 11 College Football Betting Odds, Picks, and Preview
Texas A&M Aggies (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. Ole Miss Rebels (7-2 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)
- Date: Saturday, November 13, 2021
- Start Time: 7 PM EST
- Location: Vaught Hemingway Stadium — Oxford, MS
- TV Coverage: ESPN
Texas A&M Aggies Preview
Since knocking off top-ranked Alabama, Texas A&M has very quietly gone about their business on the field. Viewed as a candidate to crash the College Football Playoff party back in the preseason, Jimbo Fisher’s team is living up to those lofty expectations over the past month. A&M has now won four straight games after starting the year 3-2. The defensive front was viewed as the biggest strength of this Aggies team before the season began. That strength was on full display last week as the defense held a surging Auburn offense to just 226 total yards and three points. The Aggies actually doubled up Auburn in yards gained per play (6.4-3.2) and flustered Bo Nix into one of his worst performances of the season.
Fittingly, the only touchdown of what was a defensive clinic by A&M came courtesy of the defense. Michael Clemons returned a fumble 24 yards for that score. Kicker Seth Small, who will go down in Aggie lore for his game-winner against Alabama, provided the rest of the scoring with four successful field goals. Texas A&M did churn out plenty of yards on the ground against Auburn. Both Isaiah Spiller (112 yards) and Devon Achane (98) were very efficient with their carries. The Aggies now rank second in the country to No. 1 Georgia allowing just 14.7 points per contest.
Ole Miss Rebels Preview
Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss successfully rebounded from a disappointing loss at Auburn by taking it to Liberty this past week. The Rebels were no match for former Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze and the Flames. They jumped out to a 24-0 halftime advantage and coasted home from there. It was an impressive effort by the Rebels’ defense against a highly-regarded NFL Draft prospect in quarterback Malik Willis. Ole Miss flustered Willis into throwing three interceptions and held the duel-threat player to just 173 yards passing. While the Rebels still rank near the bottom of the SEC in both yards and points allowed per game, the defense remains vastly improved from a year ago.
Unfortunately, Mississippi does not match up well with the strength of the Texas A&M offense: running the football. The Rebels are allowing a whopping 194.0 rushing yards per contest. That average wasn’t helped any in last week’s win as Liberty churned out nearly 300 yards on the ground. Assuming the Aggies will be able to move the ball, the pressure will be on Ole Miss’ own NFL Draft prospect, Matt Corral, to answer with scoring drives. Corral put up another 324 yards passing last week and threw for one score to lead the Rebels offensively. Unfortunately, he continues to be hampered a bit by an injury-plagued Rebels receiving corps. One positive from last week was the return of Braylon Sanders to game action. However, Jonathan Mingo’s status for Saturday’s college football betting showdown against A&M remains clouded.
Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss Betting Odds and Line Movement
The following table displays the best Texas A&M vs Ole Miss college football betting odds and lines available in the market.
| Team | Moneyline | ML Implied Probability | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M | -135 | 57.4% | -2.5 (-110) | O 55.5 (-107) |
| Ole Miss | +120 | 45.5% | +2.5 (-103) | U 55.5 (-105) |
We have seen interesting line moves on both the spread and total for this SEC showdown. Oddsmakers opened Texas A&M as a one-point favorite ahead of this road contest. The betting market has clearly agreed with that assessment. The Aggies have been bet up to -2.5 across the college football betting market. The adjusted lines reflect a 57% chance for Texas A&M to good the outright win in hostile territory.
The total for this matchup between the Aggies and Rebels has also shifted. After opening at 58.5, the sharp action has been one-way traffic on the under. The new total of 55.5 is a full three points lower than the opening number. Considering the recent performances of the Texas A&M defense along with the injuries to Ole Miss’ top receivers, the move does have a clear angle behind it.
Texas A&M vs Ole Miss Betting Picks and Prediction
This primetime SEC matchup is truly an instance of one team’s strength going up against the other team’s strong suit. The chess match between the Texas A&M defense and Ole Miss offense will be fascinating to watch play out. If the Rebels get both Braylon Sanders and Dontario Drummond back as full participants from their respective injuries, bettors should expect the Rebels offense to look a lot better than it has in recent weeks. This college football betting matchup could very well be a statement game for Matt Corral in his bid to become the first Heisman Trophy Award winner in Ole Miss football history.
Putting together that statement game will be easier said than done for Corral, however. He doesn’t figure to get much help from Jerrion Ealy and Snoop Conner in the ground game against the vicious A&M defensive front. The run game is a much bigger component to the Ole Miss offense than most people think. Meanwhile, Isaiah Spiller has to be licking his chops going up against a susceptible Rebels run defense. So long as Zach Calzada avoids making any costly mistakes, Texas A&M should be able to get the job done. It won’t be easy, especially playing in Oxford where the Rebs are undefeated this season.
A stark advantage in the trenches offensively could prove to be the difference. If the Aggies are able to run the ball and put together prolonged drives, they will in turn keep it away from Corral and the Ole Miss offense. This will be huge in enabling A&M to gain the upper hand.
Texas A&M vs Ole Miss Prediction: Texas A&M -2.5 (-110)
Henry has had a passion for sports that few can match for as long as he can remember. What started out as a five-year-old taking interest in the New York Jets and their green jerseys has since become a full-fledged career as a writer and sports betting analyst. His coverage primarily includes the NFL, MLB, NBA, NASCAR, college football, and college basketball. In 2020, he ranked among the top-10 most accurate experts ATS in the BettingPros NFL season contest. You can follow Henry’s sports work on Twitter and other social media platforms @HankTimeSports.