Thanksgiving is all about food, family, football and this year, Ole Miss vs. Mississippi odds and betting. After a year filled with scheduling hassles caused the Egg Bowl to be bumped from its traditional time slot on Thanksgiving night, we have a return to normalcy this season. The Ole Miss Rebels and Mississippi State Bulldogs will write the 118th chapter of their in-state rivalry this Thursday night when they tangle in Starkville. Given that both teams have had strong SEC and overall seasons, a high-quality bowl bid joins the coveted Golden Egg Trophy as being at stake in this year’s meeting. The Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State odds have sided with the unranked hosts ahead of this Egg Bowl battle.
Ole Miss Rebels (9-2 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS)
Despite having to overcome a plethora of injuries to offensive skill position players, Lane Kiffin has Ole Miss on the verge of a historic season. A win in Thursday’s Egg Bowl rivalry game would not only all but guarantee the Rebels a New Year’s Six bowl berth, but it would allow this year’s team to be the first in school history to record double-digit regular-season victories. There was a strong belief in Oxford and among those who follow the program closely that this year’s team was capable of big things. The fact that the Rebels have put together such an impressive college football betting season despite each of their top three wide receivers sustaining injuries has been remarkable.
So, why do Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State odds favor the Bulldogs?
Of course, much of the national hype surrounding the Ole Miss program early in the season was thanks to Matt Corral. Although the Heisman Trophy for Corral has dwindled for some reason, it has still been a terrific final season for the junior quarterback. He totaled another 300-yard game with two touchdown strikes in last Saturday’s win over Vanderbilt. The now healthy duo of Dontario Drummond and Braylon Sanders combined for over 130 yards receiving. Ole Miss’ backfield duo of Jerrion Ealy and Snoop Conner continued to impress against the Commodores. The two combined for over 100 yards rushing while Ealy also hauled in a receiving score. While the Rebs’ defense has come nowhere close to matching the level of play by the offense, it has been a drastic improvement for D.J. Durkin’s unit compared to a season ago.
If you're going to bet on Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State odds, take into consideration that while the offense is an elite unit, the defense has also take a major step forward.
The Rebels may enter Thursday’s college football betting rivalry game with the better record, but Mississippi State has a bit of an edge when it comes to momentum. After Mike Leach’s squad started off the season 3-3, the Bulldogs have now won four of their last five games to lock up bowl eligibility. They now have a chance to cap off their season with a statement win on their home field in the heated Egg Bowl rivalry. It has been somewhat remarkable to watch the evolution of Leach’s offensive game plan this season. The Air Raid concept has actually been a lot more balanced in recent weeks than one might think.
In a comeback win over Auburn two weeks ago, the true Air Raid style was on full display. Mississippi State turned a 28-10 halftime deficit into a 43-34 road victory by riding the arm of sophomore QB Will Rogers. He threw a total of 55 passes in that game, completing 44 of them for a whopping 415 yards and six touchdowns. This past Saturday against FCS-level Tennessee state, Rogers went off again for another 391 yards passing and five touchdowns. His accuracy and decision-making have improved dramatically compared to a year ago. The Bulldogs also have tough, physical offensive and defensive fronts capable of giving any SEC team a run for their money. Miss State has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per game defensively in the conference this season.
The following table displays the best Ole Miss vs Mississippi State odds and lines available in the market. As you'll see, the latest Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State odds favor the Bulldogs, despite the fact that they're unranked.
Oddsmakers bucked the rankings for these respective in-state rivals when they opened the Egg Bowl point spread at Mississippi State -2.5. This has led to Ole Miss shaping up as the ever-scary public underdog. At the time of writing early in the week, 73% of spread bets were on the visiting Rebels. Some sharp action has also apparently been on the Rebs, given the move down to a one-point spread. Current moneyline odds give the Bulldogs a 53.5% chance to win outright.
The total for this Magnolia State rivalry has already seen movement in both directions. After opening at 61, the market drove the number up as high as 62 before buy-back began. While the current consensus line is back at the original number of 61, several Las Vegas shops are still hanging onto 61.5. It will be interesting to see where this number shifts moving forward.
On the surface, the betting line favoring an unranked Mississippi State team against a top-10 Ole Miss squad might seem to be a mistake. Despite the rankings disparity, these in-state rivals are very evenly matched in terms of talent. This year’s Egg Bowl carries some of the highest stakes that this rivalry game has had in a long time. Can Ole Miss prove the college football betting odds wrong and secure a potential bid to the Sugar Bowl in the process?
While Ole Miss does hold a 63-48-6 all-time edge in the Egg Bowl series, this has been one of the most competitive rivalries over the last 30 years. Home teams have won each of the last two head-to-head meetings. Before that, the visiting side won four straight Egg Bowls. With Matt Corral officially declaring for the 2022 NFL Draft last week, he will undoubtedly be laser-focused on sealing his Ole Miss career with one final rin over the school’s arch-rival.
From a betting perspective, this game is simply too close to call as far as a side is concerned. While Ole Miss is the better team on paper and in the standings, they have struggled against top-tier SEC competition on the road this season. Thus, we will play under the total as our best bet. Each of the last four editions of the Egg Bowl has stayed under 61 total points. The hype and fanfare around both programs centers around the offenses. However, both defenses have been playing much better of late and will certainly be familiar with the opposition on Thanksgiving Night.
We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.