Buffalo Bills 2021 NFL Betting Preview
- Buffalo Bills Win Total
- Buffalo Bills Division Odds
- Buffalo Bills Super Bowl Odds
- Buffalo Bills Schedule
There’s a lot to be excited about if you are a Buffalo Bills fan in 2021! Quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills agreed to a six-year extension worth $258 million with an NFL-record $150 million guaranteed this past Friday. The $43 million average annual value makes Allen the second-highest-paid player in league history, behind Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and the highest-paid player in Bills history.
The Buffalo Bills matched a franchise record with 13 wins in 2020. At 13-3, Buffalo won the AFC East for the first time since 1995 and secured the No. 2 seed. The Bills reached the AFC Championship game before falling to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The coaching staff, lead by Head Coach Sean McDermott, remains completely intact. QB Josh Allen had his breakout year in his third NFL season, earning second-team All-Pro honors after throwing for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns with another eight scores on the ground. Pair him with Wide-Receiver Stefon Diggs, and they form one of the most dynamic duos in the entire NFL. Diggs had his best season as a pro in 2020, catching 127 passes for 1,535 yards, leading the NFL in both categories. In addition, he grabbed 76.5% of his targets, the best mark of his career and a testament to his chemistry with Allen. The two had instant chemistry, and with an entire full off-season under their belts, who knows what limits these two can reach. While it’s pretty difficult to improve on such productive numbers, it’s also not out of the question for this pairing to become even more dynamic in year two.
Buffalo Bills Win Total Odds
Josh Allen will be leading a team with a win total over/under set at 11 (Over -110). If you want to look at Josh Allen to take home the MVP award in 2021, this total win projection of 11 is good news. All 18 quarterbacks who’ve won the award in the last 20 years led their teams to the playoffs. Josh Allen’s current MVP odds sit at +1300 (Risk $100 to win $1300).
The Bills season win total of 11 is tied with the Ravens and behind only the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Last season the Bills finished third in points scored per game (29.9).
BUFFALO BILLS SCHEDULE AND ODDS
Josh Allen and the Bills finished an impressive 11-5 ATS in the regular season. However, those profits could be tough to come by in 2021, with books bracing for big numbers from Buffalo. Buffalo has a season win total of 11 but is a point spread favorite in 15 of 17 games in 2021, with the Bills laying an average of 6.5 points in those contests. The Bills are favorites in every game except two in 2021. They are road dogs in Kansas City and Tampa Bay, the only two teams currently listed ahead in Super Bowl odds.
Buffalo open their 2021 season at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This matchup the Bills won last year, handing Pittsburgh its second loss of the year. Defensively, the Bills shut down the Steelers offense, especially on the ground, where they amassed just 47 rushing yards. Since coached by Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have been a regular-season underdog of 6 or more only 11 times since 2007, with Pittsburgh going 8-3 ATS (3-8 SU) in those rare situations.
|5||@ Kansas City||+4.5||54.5|
|10||@ N.Y. Jets||-7||48|
|12||@ New Orleans||-2||52|
|13||vs New England||-7||48|
|14||@ Tampa Bay||+4||53.5|
|16||@ New England||-3.5||47.5|
|18||vs N.Y. Jets||-6.5||44.5|
Buffalo Bills Division Odds
The Patriots’ divisional supremacy ended after the Buffalo Bills claimed its first AFC East crown since 1995. Will Josh Allen and company repeat in 2021? The sportsbooks are hinting at this, making the Bills overwhelming favorites of -149 to win the AFC East.
Buffalo won all six of its games against division opponents by an average of 13.8 points a year ago. However, question marks surround the other three teams, and Buffalo finds themselves in a position to thrive again in 2021. The Miami Dolphins finished second in the division at 10-6, though they missed the playoffs in a competitive AFC. The New England Patriots were third at 7-9 with their fewest wins since 2000. And the New York Jets placed fourth at 2-14, losing 13 straight to open the season before closing it out with wins in two of the last three games.
Buffalo Bills AFC Champion Odds
During last season’s playoff run, the Bills almost got tripped up by the Indianapolis Colts in the Wild Card Round, then needed a second-half collapse from the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round to advance to the AFC title game against the Chiefs. Instead, they gave up 31 straight points in the AFC Championship after getting out to a 9-0 lead and fell short of a Super Bowl appearance. As a result, the Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2021 season as the favorites to win the AFC listed at +260 (Risk $100 to win $260).
The Bills feel like the type of team that will use this playoff experience to its advantage and propels it into a Super Bowl. To win the AFC Championship for the first time since 1994, the Bills are currently listed at +650 (Risk $100 to win $650). Oddly enough, the Bills faced off against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game in 1994 the last time they advanced to the Super Bowl.
Buffalo Bills Super Bowl Odds
The Bills have the third-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1200 (Risk $100 to win $1200). The only two teams sportsbooks list ahead are the two teams in the Super Bowl last year: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are the team between the Bills and the big game as the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC will most likely go through Kansas City.
Last year, the Bills played the Chiefs in the AFC championship, and the Bills looked lost and hopeless in a 14 point loss. However, both the Bills and the Chiefs are looking for revenge in 2021, and it will be entertaining to see them possibly cross paths in the playoffs again.
|Futures Bet||Odds||Implied Probability|
|To Win Conference||+650||13.3%|
|To Win Division||-149||59.8%|
|To Make Playoffs||Yes -330/No +300||76.7%|
|Season Win Total O/U||11 (Over -110)||52.4%|
BILLS 2021 OFFSEASON MOVES
- Trades: None
- Re-signings: C Mitch Morse (four years, $44.5 million), S Micah Hyde (two years, $19.3 million), G Jon Feliciano (three years, $17 million), LB Matt Milano (four years, $44 million), T Daryl Williams (three years, $24 million), G Forrest Lamp (one year, $1.1 million)
- Notable Free agent losses: DT Quinton Jefferson (to Raiders), WR John Brown (to Las Vegas Raiders)
- Notable Free agent signings: WR Emmanuel Sanders (one year, $6 million), T Bobby Hart (one year, $900K), RB Matt Breida (one year, $1.1 million)
- Notable Draft picks: EDGE Gregory Rousseau, EDGE Carlos Basham Jr., WR Marquez Stevenson
2020 Buffalo Bills Betting Stats
- Record: 15-4
- MOV: 6.8
- ATS: 11-5
- ATS +/-: +4.6
- Over/Under: 12-4
- Total +/-: +11