NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds Update: Is Mac Jones the Best Value Play?

At the halfway point of the 2021 NFL season, Brett Oswalt has examined the latest Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds and who are the best picks.
Brett Oswalt |
Wed, November 10, 4:53 PM EST | 4 min read
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NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds Update: Is Mac Jones the Best Value Play?

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Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots (+350) 

Right now, Mac Jones is doing one thing as good as – if not better than – any of the other candidates for this award: winning. After putting up a 50-burger and taking care of the Jets back in Week 7, the former Alabama standout has made big-time throws to lead the Patriots to victories over the Chargers and Panthers in consecutive weeks.  

At 5-4, New England will push for an AFC playoff spot. And based on stats, Jones’ case isn’t all that bland either. His 5.95 adjusted net yards per pass attempt is undeniably conservative, yet he’s turned in 300 more yards and two more passing scores than top pick Trevor Lawrence in pretty much the same number of pass attempts. In addition, his 68% completion percentage places him eighth in the league – ahead of Tom Brady – and would eclipse Dak Prescott’s rookie year for the best percentage ever posted by a rookie quarterback. 

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons (+3500) 

As with Jones, Pitts also has history on his side. With a string of productive weeks, he’s now tallied 36 catches and one touchdown on 57 targets. Even more impressive, though, is his pace of 1,161 receiving yards over this 17-game campaign. Back in 1961, Mike Ditka set the record for rookie tight ends with 1,076 yards (granted, with 12 touchdowns). At this rate, and with Calvin Ridley away from the team for personal reasons, he could pass that record. 

And it’s not like the Falcons are in a bad spot as a team. Winners in three of their last four, they’re an even 4-4 and two games back of the division-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The lack of established weapons in Atlanta could allow Pitts to be the focal point of a late-season run. 

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos (+10000) 

Look out -- Javonte is heating up! The shifty and dangerous North Carolina product is fresh off of his first-ever 100-yard game after going for 111 yards in an impressive win over the Cowboys on Sunday. In doing so, he averaged 6.5 yards per carry for the third time this season. To this point, Williams has averaged 4.9 yards per rush, thanks in large part to efforts like this, in which he’s able to shed tackle after tackle. 

The Broncos are another team vying for a playoff spot, and while Melvin Gordon will be a factor, it’s hard to deny what Williams could do if given more opportunities. Be sure to shop around for the best value, though; Williams is as low as +25000 odds over at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (+4000) 

These things – as with MVP awards and the like – tend to skew toward the most valuable position on the field: quarterback. That, along with his top pick pedigree, keeps Lawrence in the conversation despite the Jaguars’ lack of wins (at 2-6) and Jones’ more developed case for the award at this position. 

Lawrence has done well to compile starts and stats to this point. He’s had his fair share of struggles but has also notched a couple of big wins along with a pair of 300-yard performances. Unfortunately, he exited Sunday’s upset of Buffalo with an injury. However, Coach Urban Meyer has stated his optimism for the young signal-caller to be back under center this week. If Lawrence is able to go and comes back at full strength, we could see him put up some noticeable games over the second half. Of his remaining schedule, he’ll face five defenses outside the top 25 in pass defense DVOA, not to mention a game against the Texans’ stat-friendly squad. At these odds, he makes for a great value.

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