NFL First Overall Pick Odds: Which Team Is in the Driver’s Seat After a Chaotic Week?

Multiple Week 15 outcomes create chaos in the race to the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
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NFL First Overall Pick Odds: Which Team Is in the Driver’s Seat After a Chaotic Week?

A tumultuous week in the NFL off the field wound up carrying right over to the gridiron itself on Sunday afternoon. In a season that has been defined by parity, there have still been a handful of pretty terrible teams. Thus, the NFL betting odds to land the top pick in next year’s draft have remained highly competitive throughout the season. After a pair of surprising Week 15 results, bettors can anticipate some major adjustments forthcoming to the 2022 NFL Draft odds.

2022 NFL Draft Picture After Week 15 

Texans’ Sweep Season of Jaguars has Twofold Impact on NFL Draft Odds 

The most impactful game on the Week 15 board with regards to the top draft pick was clearly the AFC South Division matchup between the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars. It marked the second matchup between the division rivals this year, with Houston winning comfortably back in Week 1. Despite this, the Jaguars saw the NFL betting odds move heavily in their favor leading up to Sunday’s game. The decision to fire head coach Urban Meyer helped spur the move further. 

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It became clear on Sunday that Jacksonville’s problems span far beyond their former incompetent head coach. The Jags failed to muster 300 yards of total offense against a very poor Texans defense. Trevor Lawrence and Co. went just 3/14 on third-down conversions and wound up losing by two touchdowns. 

The Jaguars had previously been the odds-on favorite to land the top pick in the NFL Draft for the second year in a row. After upsetting the Buffalo Bills, most sportsbooks bumped the Jags’ to being the third choice on the board to pick No. 1 overall. Having now been swept by Houston, the Jaguars would now have to win two of their last three games to surrender draft position to their division rivals. Thus, Jacksonville figures to again be the odds-on favorite to pick first after Week 15.

Lions Damage Their Chances with Stunning Upset

The Texans’ win may have been an upset, but it was hardly the most shocking result in Week 15. That came courtesy of the Detroit Lions. After starting the season 0-10-1, the Lions won for the second time in the last three weeks on Sunday. Detroit went off as nearly a two-touchdown underdog at home to the Arizona Cardinals. 

Not only did Dan Campbell’s team spring the outright upset, but they won by a whole 18 points! Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Craig Reynolds led the charge for a shorthanded offense. Amani Oruwariye’s fifth interception of the season led to a touchdown and effectively thwarted the Cardinals’ comeback bid in the second half. 

After being the NFL betting favorites to land the No. 1 overall draft pick just two weeks ago, the Lions are now slated to pick second. Their tie could come back to haunt them when it comes to setting the 2022 NFL Draft order.

Jets Still in the Running to Pick First

Aside from the Jaguars, Texans and Lions, the only other team with three wins or less is the New York Jets. Despite getting out to an early lead against the Miami Dolphins in Week 15, the depleted Jets once again wound up as losers. Having now lost six of their last seven games, New York remains very much in the running for the No. 1 overall draft pick.

Considering the upcoming schedule, this might be a great week for bettors to jump on the Jets’ odds to land the top pick. Week 16 will see another pivotal game when it comes to the 2022 NFL Draft odds. New York will host the Jaguars next Sunday, December 26th. While the Jets will probably be favored in that game, they are far from a lock to win it on the field. 

It should also be noted that the Texans’ win over the Jaguars was massive for the Jets’ chances given that New York beat Houston last month. 

Remaining Schedules for Top Draft Pick Contenders

Here are the remaining schedules for each of the four NFL betting frontrunners to land the top draft pick in 2022.

Jaguars: @ Jets, @ New England, vs Indianapolis

Lions: @ Atlanta, @ Seattle, vs Green Bay

Texans: vs Los Angeles, @ San Francisco, vs Tennessee

Jets: vs Jaguars, vs Buccaneers, @ Bills

Aside from the Jaguars vs. Jets head-to-head battle next weekend, good luck finding any wins on the remaining schedules for any of these teams. Then again, the Lions did just shock Arizona. Needless to say, the race to draft first overall is far from over!


Henry has had a passion for sports that few can match for as long as he can remember. What started out as a five-year-old taking interest in the New York Jets and their green jerseys has since become a full-fledged career as a writer and sports betting analyst. His coverage primarily includes the NFL, MLB, NBA, NASCAR, college football, and college basketball. In 2020, he ranked among the top-10 most accurate experts ATS in the BettingPros NFL season contest. You can follow Henry’s sports work on Twitter and other social media platforms @HankTimeSports.

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