2022 NFL Draft Odds: Will Drake London Be the First Wide Receiver Selected?

2022 NFL Draft Odds: Will Drake London Be the First Wide Receiver Selected?

Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, the odds for who will be the top dog among this year's wide receiving class are broken down across nine names. One of Ohio State's two stud receivers, Garrett Wilson, finds himself at the top of that list with a 47% implied probability to be first off the board. In that first tier, he's followed closely by USC's Drake London at a 41% implied probability.

The second tier consists of two SEC talents in Alabama's Jameson Williams and Arkansas' Treylon Burks (at 11% and 10%, respectively), while the third tier is a one-person list in the form of Buckeye Chris Olave (3% implied odds). And finally, the fourth tier includes four players each of whom have lower than a 2% implied probability to go ahead of all others.

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2022 NFL Draft - First Wide Receiver Drafted Odds

*Odds Available at FanDuel at Time of Publishing*

These paint a good picture, but are the odds in agreement with expectations from industry-wide mock drafts? Who can we expect to have their name called first, and who is a nice value to pull the slight upset and make some happy bettors on draft night?

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Most Likely: Drake London, USC (+145) (Bet $100 to Win $145)

Across a number of popular, highly held mock drafts, the latest have London going ahead of Wilson and within the first 15 picks. Common landing spots include the New York Jets at number 10, the Commanders at pick 11, the Texans at 13 and the Eagles at 15.

For New York, London and his big-bodied playstyle could be a great compliment to last year's receiver pick in Elijah Moore, who seems to be a more natural fit inside. It also seems more likely that the Jets could go receiver in general since this would be their second pick of the first round. Washington is a candidate for the same reason, as they're in search of a reliable producer alongside Terry McLaurin as they build weapons around new quarterback Carson Wentz. Giving the edge to London over Wilson comes down to the four extra inches London has on Wilson, who stands 6'0" -- the same height as "F1" McLaurin.

As for the Texans and Eagles, both selected receivers in last year's draft, but they still need additional weapons and depth at the position. And though the Eagles are another team with a smaller-profile receiver as their established top option, Houston might be in the market for more of a Wilson-sized receiver. Their 2021 pick, Nico Collins, is another big-bodied receiver, so the only reason I could see them opting for London is if they don't believe in Collins' long-term potential. Still, that makes three out of four possible homes that at least make sense for the USC product's size and play style.

Best Value: Treylon Burks, Arkansas (+900) (Bet $100 to Win $900)

The scenario in which Burks somehow jumps the first three names on the list is on one hand unlikely but on the other not so farfetched. For all the promise of London and his Chase Claypool-type size and speed, the former Arkansas Razorback possesses the same explosiveness in his 6'2", 225-pound frame. And his college production was off the charts.

In his three years playing in the NCAA's best conference, Burks improved his numbers each year, ending his career with more than 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2021. He also, in the process, became the only receiver to garner an 85-plus player grade in each of the last two seasons, according to Pro Football Focus.

The consensus among mock drafts to this point shows Burks going between picks 22 and 26 to the Packers, Bills, or Titans. All are interesting spots, sure, but the Packers are one team that has the potential to move up for Burks if they really want to get their guy to replace Davante Adams. They could leverage the pick the 22nd pick they acquired from the Raiders, and even a later pick to leapfrog teams like the Commanders, Texans and Eagles, though it's hard to envision them trading with the Jets to break into the top 10.

That's not the only possibility though, as any of the Commanders, Texans, or Eagles could simply prefer Burks over London, Wilson, and Williams. The same could be said for the Falcons and Jets, who will be in the market for a number-one option. At a return of $900 on a $100 bet, the Razorback receiver makes for an efficient wager.

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