Odds format
United States

2023 NFL Draft Number One Overall Pick Odds: Ranking the Top Five Candidates

In rare form, this year's draft saw just one quarterback come off the board in the first round and a measly four in the top 100 selections. Will 2023 be any different? How many quarterbacks are among the top candidates for the first overall pick? Brett Oswalt has you covered.
| 5 mins read
Share to Facebook
Share to Twitter
Copy Link

2023 NFL Draft Number One Overall Pick Odds: Ranking the Top Five Candidates

In the aftermath of the draft, DraftKings released top-pick odds for the projected 2023 NFL draft class. Here's what the landscape, by odds, looks like for the top 10 players.

Odds for First Overall Pick in 2023 NFL Draft
DraftKings' odds to be selected first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft
OddsPositionPlayer - School
+200QBCJ Stroud - Ohio State
+250QBBryce Young - Alabama
+330EDGEWill Anderson, Jr. - Alabama
+1000OTParis Johnson - Ohio State
+1500QBPhil Jurkovec - Boston College
+1500WRJaxon Smith-Njigba - Ohio State
+1800QBTyler Van Dyke - Miami
+2000QBSpencer Rattler - South Carolina
+2500DTBryan Bresee - Clemson
+3000CBEli Ricks - Alabama

Regardless of their standing in the betting market, who are the five players most likely to become the number-one selection at this point in time?

5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR - Ohio State: +1500 (Bet $100 to Win $1500)

If you thought this year was an exclamation point on Ohio State's eight-year run of top receivers, you thought wrong. Even after the departure of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave in the most recent draft, the Buckeyes possess a player who's expected to be the best at his position in 2022.

A rising junior, Smith-Njigba stands 6'0" and 198 pounds, akin to the builds of the two receivers to go before him. One of his most evident talents is his ability to play outside, in the slot, and all over. He has speed and elite route-running skills that allowed him to put up big stats during his sophomore season.

Smith-Njigba was challenged for targets alongside first-round NFL talent, yet he was able to turn 95 catches into 1,606 yards and 9 touchdowns. He had nearly 1,000 yards in the last five games alone.

It's not an everyday occurrence to be able to compare a prospect to those of a different class at the same position, but this is one of those rare opportunities to take advantage of. Smith-Njigba is as talented and proved to be more productive than both Wilson and Olave. And he gets to play another year with CJ Stroud under center, which has many fans and evaluators thinking he will rival the monster receiving seasons of Devonta Smith, Ja'Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson.

4. Spencer Rattler, QB - South Carolina: +2000 (Bet $100 to Win $2000)

As the odds suggest, there's a clear-cut one and two among quarterback prospects early on. What's uncertain is who will be the third guy to lead the rest of the pack. For me, it's the former number-one recruit -- Rattler -- despite an up-and-down college career to this point.

Following his two-plus seasons in Norman under Lincoln Riley, and backing up Caleb Williams this past year, the 6'1" Rattler made the decision to transfer to South Carolina where he'll play under former Oklahoma staff member Shane Beamer. The Gamecocks haven't made a name for their program since Jadeveon Clowney, but that might be a good thing for Rattler to shine brightest in what could be his final collegiate showcase for scouts. After all, he has the attributes.

The production is going to be the blemish here, though -- at least for now. In his time with the Sooners, the Phoenix native completed more than 67% of his passes between 2020 and 2021 and had 39 touchdowns to 12 interceptions in the air. On the ground, Rattler also produced nine scores with his legs. Will he do that and more in a new system in 2021? If he does and does it against SEC competition, he is likely to draw more eyes from his position lower down the oddsmakers' boards.

3. Bryce Young, QB - Alabama: +250 (Bet $100 to Win $250)

Young is the defending Heisman Trophy winner for a reason. The then-sophomore quarterback set the Alabama record for most passing yards (4,872) and touchdowns (47) in a single season, and to boot his 10 adjusted passing yards per attempt ranked sixth in the country. In other words, he was hyper-efficient in distributing the ball to the likes of Jameson Williams, John Metchie, and Slade Bolden.

What about now? All three receivers are gone. But don't you worry -- as usual, Nick Saban and company have regeared through the transfer portal and on the recruiting trail. And there's a chance that given all the circumstances (after winning the Heisman and seeing his receivers get drafted) Young might stand out even more in his bid for the NFL's top draftee.

The only question mark is around Young's smaller frame, which -- historically -- hasn't translated well for most quarterbacks not named Drew Brees, Russell Wilson or Kyler Murray. Could he be another exception to add to the list? You tell me.

2. CJ Stroud, QB - Ohio State: +200 (Bet $100 to Win $200)

For all that Young has proven and can provide at the next level, Stroud gets the nod as a potential first overall pick first and foremost because of his more prototypical build. At 6'3" and weighing in at 215 pounds, he has a solid 3 inches and 20 pounds on the 'Bama quarterback. If you need a reference, the difference is like comparing a slightly lighter Matthew Stafford to a much lighter Russell Wilson. In fact, Young's frame is most like that of Johnny Manziel's.

Not only does Stroud stick out above Young for his more pro-ready frame, but he has this type of arm talent that at least matches if not exceed that of Young on throws downfield.

The 20-year-old's draft stock is already high, seeing as he threw for more than 4,400 yards, 44 touchdowns, and just six picks a year ago. His 91.6 QBR was nearly four higher than that of Young, and we could see more of the same from him this season. With Smith-Njigba as his top target, he could earn his way to the Heisman house and shoot his stock to the moon ahead of next April's big event.

1. Will Anderson, Jr. - Alabama: +330 (Bet $100 to Win $330)

We saw how teams prioritized edge rushers over signal-callers in this more limited QB class, but could that be the case for a second consecutive year? It's not very likely that things repeat themselves given the higher level of talent coming out in 2023. However, Anderson might be a step above this year's shoo-in prospects, Aidan Hutchinson, Travon Walker, and Kayvon Thibodeaux. If he had been able to enter the pool this year, there's a chance he would've gone ahead of them all. Why would I suggest that?

During his sophomore year with the Tide, the 6'4", 243-pound hybrid end did work, tallying 17.5 sacks, nine quarterback hurries, and 34.5 tackles for loss. For his efforts, the one they call The Terminator was awarded the Bronko Nagurski Award, listed as a finalist for the Bednarik Award, and voted (unanimously) a first-team All-American.

Anderson's an already highly decorated player entering a year in which he's almost a lock to be the hands-down best pass rusher. If he's able to put on a few pounds and show even more in the production department, I'd be shocked to see a single quarterback leapfrog him for the top spot.

Want the very best sportsbook promos available in your state? Simply click here

Error fetching data.


Brett Oswalt has been writing about sports for five years, has covered everything from the NBA to College Football DFS, and previously served as an editor at numberFire. He is a Senior Workforce Planning Analyst at Highmark by day, and an avid sports fan and girl-dad by night. He resides in Pittsburgh, PA with his wife, Marley, daughter, Aria, and goldendoodle, Braun.


Almost there!

We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.