Farmers Insurance Open Odds: Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas Lead the Way at Torrey Pines

Tom Jacobs breaks down this week's Farmers Insurance Open and takes a look at those at the head of the market, as well as his own selections across the board. Also included are the Key Stats and Trends expected to factor into the event.
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Farmers Insurance Open Odds: Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas Lead the Way at Torrey Pines

This week, a star-studded field has assembled for the 2022 renewal of the Farmers Insurance Open. While some of the biggest names in golf are over in Dubai, some of those that normally skip this event have made the trip this week, potentially giving this event its strongest field ever.

World No. 1 Jon Rahm will return to one of his favorite spots, as this was the site of his first PGA Tour victory (2017) and his first major win (2021 U.S. Open). He is joined by world No. 4, Dustin Johnson, No. 6 Justin Thomas, No. 7 Xander Schauffele, No. 9 Bryson DeChambeau, and No. 10 Hideki Matsuyama.

After his win at the Sony Open, Hideki Matsuyama is the first player to post multiple victories in this new PGA Tour season, as he added to his ZOZO Championship win back in October.

This event will be hosted by both the North and South Courses at Torrey Pines over the first 36-holes, while those that make the weekend will play 36 holes at the tougher, South Course over the weekend. For my details on the course and what it will take to win there, see my course preview here.

Remember, this event starts a day earlier this week, as the event runs Wednesday through Saturday to avoid the NFL Championship games on Sunday 30th.

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How to Watch the Farmers Insurance Open

  • Wednesday: 12:30 p.m.-4:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
  • Thursday: 3 p.m.-7 p.m. (Golf Channel)
  • Friday: 3 p.m.-5 p.m. (Golf Channel), 5 p.m.-8 p.m. (CBS)
  • Saturday: 2:30 p.m.-4:30 p.m. (Golf Channel), 4:30 p.m.-8 p.m. (CBS)

Farmers Insurance Open Odds

OddsGolfer
+800Jon Rahm
+1400Justin Thomas
+1700Xander Schauffele
+2100Hideki Matsuyama
+2200Bryson DeChambeau
+2200Daniel Berger
+2200Dustin Johnson
+2500Sam Burns
+3200Sungjae Im
+3300Tony Finau
+3400Scottie Scheffler
+3500Will Zalatoris
+3600Brooks Koepka
+4000Jordan Spieth

Click Here for Farmers Insurance Open Odds

Qualifying Criteria For The Farmers Insurance Open

  • Winner - PGA/U.S. Open Championship (five-year exemption)
  • Winner - The PLAYERS Championship (five-year exemption)
  • Winner - Masters Tournament (five-year exemption)
  • Winner - Open Championship (five-year exemption)
  • Winner - World Golf Championships Event (three-year exemption)
  • Winner - Arnold Palmer Invitational, Memorial Tournament & Genesis Invitational (three-year exemption)
  • PGA TOUR Tournament Winner (two-year exemption)
  • Career Money Exemption
  • Sponsor's Exemptions

Last Year

Patrick Reed converted a 54-hole lead that he shared with Mexico's, Carlos Ortiz heading into Sunday last year. Reed may well have had a larger cushion going into Sunday were he not scrutinized for a potential rules infraction once again.

Reed was afforded a free drop because he deemed his ball embedded and actually removed the ball before the official arrived, and he got said ball up and down for par in the end.

He went on to bogey four of his next five holes after that, in what was clearly a moment that rattled him, with the words "not again" probably reverberating around his head.

In the end though, he won the event by five strokes, despite only having a one-stroke lead heading into the back-nine, as Norway's, Viktor Hovland was trying to hunt him down. Hovland unfortunately bogeyed 14, 15, and 17, and Reed converted a bogey-free round of 68 to runaway with the event.

The Favorites

Jon Rahm (+800) (Bet $100 to Win $800)

Jon Rahm is the clear and obvious favorite this week, and for obvious reasons. As already noted, this was the site of his first PGA Tour victory back in 2017, where he eagled his 72nd hole to win, and since then he has finished 29th, 5th, 2nd and 7th in this event. To add to that he won the 2021 U.S. Open at the South Course.

He was in poor form at the end of 2021, in what appeared to be a case of burnout, but his return to golf in 2022 has been special so far. He pushed Cameron Smith all the way at the Tournament of Champions, shooting 33-under and losing by one, and he followed that up with a 14th place finish at the American Express last week, despite being fed up with the event turning into a "putting contest".

He was the 54-hole leader in 2020 before succumbing to Marc Leishman, and in 2019 and 2021 he was 3rd after 54-holes, so he goes into the final round of this event with a chance, more often than not. Even when finishing 29th when defending in 2018, he was 2nd after 36-holes and 12th after 54-holes despite a Saturday 75.

Clearly he's impossible to overlook, and if you were backing him as the favorite in recent weeks, you should do so here. It is not my style to take the outright favorite in golf, given the volatility involved in winning a tournament, but if I was going to do it, Rahm at Torrey Pines would probably be the place.

Justin Thomas (+1400) (Bet $100 to Win $1400)

Justin Thomas has only played this event twice, finishing 10th on debut in 2014, and following that up with a missed cut on his return 12 months later.

He's not played this since, but did finish 19th at the U.S. Open last year, and again, like Matsuyama it should be a good course for him. Thomas is likely to be a player that is put off by the poa annua greens, despite him finishing T9 and 2nd at Riviera which features the same putting surface. He did throw away the title there when 2nd, as he shot a 75 in the final round and maybe these surfaces get in his head.

He's started the season well, finishing T18, 3rd, T5 and T5 and while I will probably avoid him in this range, given the options available, but his chances are respected.

Xander Schauffele (+1700) (Bet $100 to Win $1700)

Given his local ties here, Xander Schauffele is repeatedly one of the favorites in this event, but he missed his first three cuts here and four in the first five, before finishing 2nd here 12 months ago. Now with 25th and 2nd place finishes here when he's got through the cut, plus his 7th at the U.S. Open his favoritism makes plenty of sense and he should be a reliable option.

So far, his current form this season is fairly lackluster as he's not finished better than his 12th place showings in limited fields at the Hero World Challenge and Tournament of Champions. I suspect a return to La Jolla will kickstart his season, but like Thomas, I will respect his chances but look elsewhere.

Hideki Matsuyama (+2100) (Bet $100 to Win $2100)

Hideki Matsuyama is the first two-time winner on this new PGA Tour season, with wins at home at the ZOZO Championship and the Sony Open two weeks ago. That means he's won three times in the past 9 months, as he also won his first major at the Masters last April. This is a ridiculous run of form for Matsuyama, who prior to this run hadn't won anywhere since 2017. He also lost in a playoff at the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational in August, so he could quite easily have won four times since the beginning of April 2021.

While he's never been consistent in this event, he's made 6 of 8 cuts and finished 3rd in 2019, a year after finishing 12th in 2018. It is strange that his best finish here came in 2019, given Rose won at 21-under, the lowest score since Woods won at 22-under in 1999. Matsuyama is typically better at tougher layouts, as the need for good putting is negated, but he clearly went well that year.

I see no reason why Matsuyama can't win again, on a course that suits his game perfectly, despite his up and down form here.

Dustin Johnson (+2200) (Bet $100 to Win $2200)

Dustin Johnson hasn't played this event for the past four years, and in seven starts here he's missed the cut four times and finished better than 43rd just once when 3rd in 2011.

There's enough evidence to suggest he doesn't like this layout,. but his T19 at last year's U.S. Open and his general skillset will always keep you interested in the World No.4.

I think Johnson bounces back in a huge way in 2022, but I expect he will kick start the year somewhere else.

Bryson DeChambeau (+2200) (Bet $100 to Win $2200)

Bryson has played in this event twice and missed the cut on both occasions, back in 2017 and 2018, and he's not returned since. He did play well in the U.S. Open last year on the South Course, as he was 4th after 54-holes and only two back of the trio of co-leaders, but his final round 77 saw him tumble to T26.

He will figure this event out given his new approach to the game and while the U.S. Open setup undoubtedly lends itself more to Bryson's skillset, I do think he can triumph here at some point, even in January. His lack of touch around the greens may well hold him back here, but if he can find more greens and avoid having to scramble too often he may well be in with a shout this week.

I certainly expect him to make the cut as he returns to this event for the first time since his transformation, but he will need to overcome a slow start to the new season to contend. He finished T14 at the Hero World Challenge before Christmas, but there were only 20 players there that week, and his T25 finish out of 38 runners in Hawaii to start 2022 doesn't help either. Likely to be overlooked for those reasons, he might be a sharp play given his additional driving distance since he last played in this event.

Click Here for Farmers Insurance Open Odds

Since 1983, no player has shot over-par on the North Course and won.

Jon Rahm was the first player to win on their course debut, since the inaugural staging at this golf course in 1968.

Jon Rahm was also the first player since Jay Don Blake in 1991 to win their first PGA Tour title at this event. Previous winning form is generally a prerequisite.

11 of the past 13 winners have posted a top-10 at Torrey Pines before winning here. Rahm was the most recent exception, with Scott Stallings (2014) the other.

All of these trends point towards a player with Torrey Pines experience winning here. I wouldn't throw a player out who hasn't posted a top-10, but I would want someone who's played here before and at least shown some positive signs. Not many people can follow the path Jon Rahm takes, especially on this sort of course.

Incoming Form

Below is the Top-10 for adjusted scoring average over the past 15 weeks (excluding PNC Shootout, QBE Shootout & Hero World Challenge) :

  • Jon Rahm - 17-MC-2-14
  • Mackenzie Hughes - 35-25-4-29-2
  • Hideki Matsuyama - 67-59-1-13-1
  • Justin Thomas - 18-3-5
  • Francesco Molinari - 67-MC-WD-6
  • Lanto Griffin - MC-6-7-64-40-3
  • Aaron Wise - 26-8-5-15-26
  • Daniel Berger - 5
  • Luke List - 17-MC-7-MC-11-10-22
  • Tom Hoge - MC-14-32-17-56-46-4-MC-2

Past Champions (10 Years)

  • 2021 - Patrick Reed (-14) - 5 stroke victory
  • 2020 - Marc Leishman (-15) - 1 stroke victory
  • 2019 - Justin Rose (-21) - 2 stroke victory
  • 2018 - Jason Day (-10) - Playoff
  • 2017 - Jon Rahm (-13) - 3 stroke victory
  • 2016 - Brandt Snedeker (-6) - 1 stroke victory
  • 2015 - Jason Day (-9) - Playoff
  • 2014 - Scott Stallings (-9) - 1 stroke victory
  • 2013 - Tiger Woods (-14) - 4 stroke victory
  • 2012 - Brandt Snedeker (-16) - Playoff

Early Leans

Hideki Matsuyama (+2100) (Bet $100 to Win $2100)

I think Matsuyama is going to be slightly overlooked this week due to the wealth of options at the top of the board, and his mixed course form, but he showed at the Sony he can overcome the latter. He was 8th and 5th in T2G his last two starts and 5th and 25 in SG Approach, and those will both lend themselves to success here, as they would most weeks.

Golf is arguably the only sport where we try to avoid people that have won recently, as we don't think they can go back-to-back, but he's got previous of backing up wins in the past.

The week after winning the WGC Bridgestone in 2017, he finished 5th at the PGA Championship and while they were much lesser events, in his two starts following his 2016 WGC Champions win, he won both. The first came on the Japanese Tour, and then again at the Hero World Challenge. That run in 2016 saw him go on a run of, 5-1-2-1-1-1, so he can keep up form when at his very best.

Matsuyama was quoted saying "it was a relief, really to win the Masters" and given the pressure on Japanese athletes, this is no great surprise and I really do think that major victory has freed him up, which his results since the dust settled following Augusta, has backed that up. He's good enough to win any event on any course, and at the odds, I will chance that happens again here, given his record of stringing results together.

Matthew Wolff (+7000) (Bet $100 to Win $7000)

I like this as a buy-low spot for Matthew Wolff, who withdrew from this tournament last year with an injury.

Wolff finished 21st here on debut back in 2020 and finished T15 at the U.S. Open last year, sitting 3rd and one back after 36-holes and 6th and three back after 54, in his first start since the Masters.

To contend in any event after a lengthy break to work on his mental health was extraordinary, no less a major, and that sort of performance, with that lack of playing time is reserved for players of his talent.

He was poor last week, there's no denying that, but I am hoping he can put that behind him quickly, and recapture the form that saw him finish T17, 2nd, T5 and T11 before Christmas.

I will take a chance his talent takes over and he overcomes a poor first outing of 2022, where he blew off the cobwebs in La Quinta.

Will Zalatoris (+3500) (Bet $100 to Win $3500)

Will Zalatoris ranked 5th in SG Approach last week and 7th in SG T2G (two rounds of data) and that's the Zalatoris we got used to over the past two years. He finished 7th here last year, after missing the cut on his debut when a lesser player in 2018, and it was last year's performance that should be the best indicator.

It was pleasing to see him back in form last week when 6th at the American Express, which piqued my interest after a rough finish to 2021. I think he's a huge confidence player, and while he started the new season with finishes of 11th and 14th at the Fortinet and the Sanderson Farms respectively, he followed that up with finishes of MC-T54-MC-T37, so I was out on him until I saw a change in fortunes.

That change came last week when he was a decent price, and while he's shortened up here in a stronger field, I actually think this is a more suitable test, and he's capable of winning in this company, as shown when chasing down Matsuyama at Augusta.

He would have to buck the trend of winning your first PGA Tour title here, but he's got the previous top-10 at the course and his ceiling is high enough for me to believe he can land this title.

Lanto Griffin (+8000) (Bet $100 to Win $8000)

I suspect Lanto Griffin will be popular this week, but its for good reason.

In three starts in this event, Griffin has finished 12-MC-7 and at last year's U.S. Open he also finished T35, despite opening with a round of 76. So far this season Griffin has three top-7 finishes in seven starts, with his T3 finish last week the best of the bunch.

Any further analysis on this outsider would be unnecessary. He ranks 6th in recent form (15 weeks) and 12th in course form (15 years) so I will happily chance he can at least pay off the each way. I like that he already has a PGA Tour win to his name, and on top of his form here and current form, he has finished T9 at Pebble Beach to suggest he likes coastal California tracks.

Mackenzie Hughes (+8000) (Bet $100 to Win $8000)

Mackenzie Hughes goes against the grain of people that should succeed here, as he's not long off the tee, but like Brandt Snedeker and Patrick Reed before him, I do think he can piece it all together this week if at his very best.

He was one of the 54-hole leaders at the U.S. Open last year, which suited him more given the run he could get on the fairways, as it was June rather than January, but he was also 29th here in this event, back in 2019 where he shot four consecutive rounds of 70.

When 54th on debut he was also 11th after 36-holes, so while he needs it all to go his way, I think there may be some value in chancing he can follow in the footsteps of Reed and Snedeker. He ranked 2nd in SG T2G and 3rd in SG App at the RSM Classic and 20th in SG T2G, at the Houston Open, so different areas of his game looked in good shape before the break, it just depends how he comes out in his first start of 2022.

It would go against the grain and it is a bit of a wildcard, but with form at the Travelers (T3 2020), the Canadian Open at Glen Abbey (T8 2018), and Pebble Beach in (T10 2017) all of which I think are positive pointers, I will give him a chance.

Click Here for Farmers Insurance Open Odds

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The Field

  • Ryan Alford
  • Paul Barjon
  • Daniel Berger
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  • Jonas Blixt
  • Michael Block
  • Keegan Bradley
  • Joseph Bramlett
  • Hayden Buckley
  • Bronson Burgoon
  • Sam Burns
  • Cameron Champ
  • Kevin Chappell
  • Wyndham Clark
  • Corey Conners
  • Austin Cook
  • Joel Dahmen
  • Cam Davis
  • Jason Day
  • Bryson DeChambeau
  • Jason Dufner
  • Tony Finau
  • Rickie Fowler
  • Dylan Frittelli
  • Brice Garnett
  • Doug Ghim
  • Michael Gligic
  • Talor Gooch
  • Lanto Griffin
  • Emiliano Grillo
  • Scott Gutschewski
  • Bill Haas
  • Chesson Hadley
  • Adam Hadwin
  • Brandon Hagy
  • James Hahn
  • Nick Hardy
  • Lucas Herbert
  • Jim Herman
  • Harry Higgs
  • Lee Hodges
  • Charley Hoffman
  • Tom Hoge
  • Max Homa
  • Billy Horschel
  • Mackenzie Hughes
  • John Huh
  • Sungjae Im
  • Stephan Jaeger
  • Dustin Johnson
  • Kamaiu Johnson
  • Matt Jones
  • Sung Kang
  • Si Woo Kim
  • Patton Kizzire
  • Brooks Koepka
  • Ben Kohles
  • Kelly Kraft
  • Anirban Lahiri
  • Martin Laird
  • Nate Lashley
  • Hank Lebioda
  • Danny Lee
  • K.H. Lee
  • Marc Leishman
  • David Lipsky
  • Luke List
  • Adam Long
  • Justin Lower
  • Peter Malnati
  • Hideki Matsuyama
  • Tyler McCumber
  • Max McGreevy
  • Maverick McNealy
  • Phil Mickelson
  • Keith Mitchell
  • Francesco Molinari
  • Taylor Montgomery
  • Taylor Moore
  • Trey Mullinax
  • Sebastián Muñoz
  • Matthew NeSmith
  • Joaquin Niemann
  • Seung-Yul Noh
  • Alex Noren
  • Henrik Norlander
  • Andrew Novak
  • Carlos Ortiz
  • Ryan Palmer
  • C.T. Pan
  • Taylor Pendrith
  • Mito Pereira
  • Pat Perez
  • Scott Piercy
  • J.T. Poston
  • Jon Rahm
  • Aaron Rai
  • Chad Ramey
  • Chez Reavie
  • Doc Redman
  • Patrick Reed
  • Seth Reeves
  • Davis Riley
  • Patrick Rodgers
  • Justin Rose
  • Sam Ryder
  • Rory Sabbatini
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Scottie Scheffler
  • Adam Schenk
  • Greyson Sigg
  • David Skinns
  • Alex Smalley
  • Austin Smotherman
  • Brandt Snedeker
  • J.J. Spaun
  • Jordan Spieth
  • Scott Stallings
  • Kyle Stanley
  • Sepp Straka
  • Robert Streb
  • Kevin Streelman
  • Chris Stroud
  • Brian Stuard
  • Adam Svensson
  • Hudson Swafford
  • Nick Taylor
  • Sahith Theegala
  • Justin Thomas
  • Curtis Thompson
  • Michael Thompson
  • Martin Trainer
  • Cameron Tringale
  • Kevin Tway
  • Peter Uihlein
  • Dawie van der Walt
  • Jhonattan Vegas
  • Camilo Villegas
  • Jimmy Walker
  • Nick Watney
  • Richy Werenski
  • Vince Whaley
  • Aaron Wise
  • Matthew Wolff
  • Gary Woodland
  • Brandon Wu
  • Dylan Wu
  • Cameron Young
  • Kevin Yu
  • Will Zalatoris

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Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-host the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on the tours on both sides of the pond. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, but his main passion remains golf, and every year he holds onto the hope of Lee Westwood winning his first major championship.

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