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AT&T Pebble Beach Odds Preview: Patrick Cantlay and Daniel Berger Lead the Way

Tom Jacobs looks to break down this week's field at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which has returned to its familiar three-course rotation and Pro-Am format, after a year's break due to COVID.
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AT&T Pebble Beach Odds Preview: Patrick Cantlay and Daniel Berger Lead the Way

We are into week three of the California swing already (where did that time go?) and we get the weakest field of the stretch so far, here at Pebble Beach.

With the financial appeal of the Saudi International, and the lack of interest in playing a pro-am format working against event organizers here, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will be delighted to at least welcome back World No.4 and reigning player of the year, Patrick Cantlay and defending champion, Daniel Berger.

Cantlay is the only representative from the World's Top-10 here this week, while Jordan Spieth and Daniel Berger give us another couple from the top-20. The official line is that the amount of players from the World's top-50 has doubled in this year's renewal, but the harsh reality is, the best players have opted to play elsewhere or take a break.

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How To Watch The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Television: Thursday-Friday, 3 p.m.-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). Saturday, 1 p.m.-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-7 p.m. (CBS). Sunday, 1 p.m.-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6:30 p.m. (CBS)

Qualifying Criteria For The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Former winners of the event

All former winners of The PLAYERS Championship

Winner of any Open Championship

Sponsor's Exemptions (KFT Finals)

Sponsor's Exemptions

Winners of any WGC event

Winners of Arnold Palmer Invitational, Memorial Tournament and Genesis Invitational (three-year exemption)

PGA Tournament winner over the past two years

Career money exemption

Commissioner's exemption (Foreign players)

PGA Section Champion\Player of the Year

Top 125 from last season's FedEx Cup (inc. non-member)

KFT Points Winners (The 25 and Finals 25)

KFT Graduates

126-150 on last season's FedEx Cup standings (reshuffled)

Reshuffle of categories 29-33

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Last Year

Daniel Berger got the victory here in 2021, his fourth on Tour and second since the return to golf from the pandemic, and he did it in style.

Berger was incredibly solid all week, sitting 11th after round 1, before sitting 2nd after each of the next two rounds. A final-round 65 saw him rise above Jordan Spieth (1st) and Patrick Cantlay (2nd) who both started ahead of him on Sunday.

Spieth was still making his way back to the top, and many will argue he still is, but he was just coming off a hot week in Phoenix where he had shot a 61 in round 3. He had a two-shot lead here going into Sunday, but with bogeys on 3 and 5, canceling out birdies at 2 and 7, it was a tough task for Spieth heading into the back nine.

Spieth made three birdies coming home, but a costly bogey on the par-5 14th look to end his chances as Berger continued to push.

After an eagle on two, birdie on 3 and a birdie on 6, Berger was cruising until a bogey on 8 reminded him how hard it is to win.

It was a strong back-nine for Berger though who started it with a birdie on 10, another on 14 leaving him with the chance to make birdie on 18 to avoid a playoff with Maverick McNealy who had finished strong.

Berger hit his approach from 250 yards to 30ft and looked primed to get down in two, before holing the eagle putt from over 30ft to secure the title in style.

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The Favorites

Patrick Cantlay +700 (Bet $100 to win $700)

Patrick Cantlay would be the favorite in this field regardless of course form, as his dominance in 2021 leaves him at No.4 in the world heading into this week.

Unfortunately for the rest of the field though, Cantlay has enjoyed his time at Pebble Beach over the years, finishing 9th, 11th and 3rd in three of his five visits, making the cut on the other two occasions.

It has been much of the same for Cantlay to start the season, finishing 4th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, before finishing 9th on the first leg of this Californian swing, at the Amex.

Such is his quality, he will actually be disappointed with that effort in La Quinta and will be desperate to turn consistency into winning form here at a famed venue, and he is clearly the most capable of doing so.

Far and away the most obvious favorite, it will be up to the likes of, Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, and a couple of experienced major winners to push him all the way here.

Daniel Berger +1400 (Bet $100 to win $1400)

Daniel Berger got the better of his rivals on Sunday here last year, and the Florida product will be hoping for a repeat performance 12 months later.

Berger has previous of defending, as he won the FedEx St Jude Classic back-to-back in 2016 and 2017, despite some downtime due to injury and form in 2017.

Neither are a problem for Berger here, and he will look to return to the scene of his last victory and get 2022 off to a strong start, taking advantage of some stellar iron play.

Berger ended last season ranked 5th in SG Approach and currently sits 4th after his first couple of events of this, so it will be his irons and wedges that power his defence this week.

After an up-and-down week at Torrey Pines, Berger eventually finished T20 on a course he's never really excelled on, and this backs up his T5 at the Tournament of Champions to start the year.

Berger ranks 1st in Course Form, finishing 10th, 5th and 1st here in three starts and while Cantlay is a strong market leader, Berger makes strong claims as well.

Will Zalatoris +1600 (Bet $100 to win $1600)

Will Zalatoris came agonisingly close to a breakthrough victory at Torrey Pines last week, losing out to another maiden victor in Luke List, in the playoff.

He's bullish about his future though, and when he was asked how he felt after the round last week, he focused all his attention on to this week. The last time he came as close as this to winning was on the Korn Ferry Tour and he missed out on a spot in the playoff by one that week, but went on to win on his very next start, so he will be hoping for the same here.

His off-the-tee prowess is somewhat negated here, but his strong iron and wedge play can keep him in contention, and it will come down to how many putts he can make as to whether he will contend.

His course form reads 68-56 here, but back in 2018 on debut, when a lesser player, he was 8th after round 1, 13th after round 2 and still inside the top-30 going into Sunday, before a disaster final round saw him fall away.

A much improved player this time around than on his first effort in 2018, if he can pick himself up after a tough break last week, he can improve on both showings here.

Jordan Spieth +2000 (Bet $100 to win $2000)

Spieth is a former winner of this event (2017) and he had an obvious chance to back that up here last year, holding the 54-hole lead, so it makes sense that he's priced at the top of the market, even if there's question marks over his current form.

All in all, Spieth has made nine starts here, making every cut and finishing outside the top-21 just once. Four top-10's (4-7-9-3) in addition to his win will mean he has his backers, even if the game looks out of sorts at the moment.

Spieth has started 2022 with a middling finish (T21) at the Tournament of Champions, before missing the cut at Torrey Pines last week, and in his last start of 2021 we saw him finish dead last in the Hero World Challenge, so who knows what to expect from the Texas native.

He was in similarly poor form in 2019 before he finished T9 here, so he's capable of finding it on this course without his best stuff, I just wouldn't want to rely on that.

Jason Day +2000 (Bet $100 to win $2000)

Jason Day was one of the players pushing Zalatoris last week, as he went into the final day tied for the lead with him, but despite holing out for eagle on the Par-4, 14th, Day couldn't keep up with Zalatoris' ball-striking.

Still, a 3rd place finish was plenty good enough for the Aussie who's been struggling with his swing over recent years, as he looks to overcome back issues and prolong his career.

49th at the Amex and 3rd last week, Day now comes to an event that has so far evaded him, despite some ridiculous course figures. Day has finished inside the top-7 in each of his last five visits here, and only missed the cut once in his 12 starts. In his other 11 starts here, he's finished worse than 14th just once, and came closest when 2nd behind Ted Potter Jr, who won by three strokes in 2018.

Day needs a big year in 2022, and you feel this could be the chance for him to get that first win since 2018.

The Field

  • Kiradech Aphibarnrat
  • Ryan Armour
  • Aaron Baddeley
  • Sangmoon Bae
  • Mark Baldwin
  • Paul Barjon
  • Ricky Barnes
  • Daniel Berger
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  • Jonas Blixt
  • Joseph Bramlett
  • Scott Brown
  • Hayden Buckley
  • Bronson Burgoon
  • Dean Burmester
  • Jonathan Byrd
  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Alex Cejka
  • Cameron Champ
  • Kevin Chappell
  • Stewart Cink
  • Wyndham Clark
  • Austin Cook
  • Ben Crane
  • Joshua Creel
  • Joel Dahmen
  • Jason Day
  • Luke Donald
  • Brett Drewitt
  • Tyler Duncan
  • Austin Eckroat
  • Matt Fitzpatrick
  • Dylan Frittelli
  • Brice Garnett
  • Robert Garrigus
  • Brian Gay
  • Michael Gligic
  • Lucas Glover
  • Lanto Griffin
  • Scott Gutschewski
  • Bill Haas
  • Chesson Hadley
  • Adam Hadwin
  • Brandon Hagy
  • James Hahn
  • Nick Hardy
  • Brandon Harkins
  • Brian Harman
  • David Hearn
  • Bo Hoag
  • Lee Hodges
  • Charley Hoffman
  • Tom Hoge
  • Beau Hossler
  • Mark Hubbard
  • Mackenzie Hughes
  • John Huh
  • Peter Jacobsen
  • Stephan Jaeger
  • Matt Jones
  • Sung Kang
  • Chan Kim
  • Chris Kirk
  • Kevin Kisner
  • Kurt Kitayama
  • Jim Knous
  • Russell Knox
  • Satoshi Kodaira
  • Ben Kohles
  • Kelly Kraft
  • Matt Kuchar
  • Andrew Landry
  • Nate Lashley
  • Hank Lebioda
  • Min Woo Lee
  • Tom Lehman
  • David Lingmerth
  • David Lipsky
  • Davis Love III
  • Justin Lower
  • Peter Malnati
  • Brad Marek
  • Denny McCarthy
  • Tyler McCumber
  • Max McGreevy
  • Maverick McNealy
  • Troy Merritt
  • Keith Mitchell
  • Ryan Moore
  • Taylor Moore
  • Trey Mullinax
  • John Murphy
  • Grayson Murray
  • Matthew NeSmith
  • Seung-Yul Noh
  • Andrew Novak
  • Sean O'Hair
  • Ryan Palmer
  • Taylor Pendrith
  • Cameron Percy
  • Mito Pereira
  • Pat Perez
  • Scott Piercy
  • D.A. Points
  • Ted Potter Jr.
  • Seamus Power
  • Andrew Putnam
  • Aaron Rai
  • Chad Ramey
  • Chez Reavie
  • Doc Redman
  • Seth Reeves
  • Davis Riley
  • Patrick Rodgers
  • Justin Rose
  • Matthias Schwab
  • Charl Schwartzel
  • Chase Seiffert
  • John Senden
  • Greyson Sigg
  • David Skinns
  • Alex Smalley
  • Austin Smotherman
  • Brandt Snedeker
  • J.J. Spaun
  • Jordan Spieth
  • Scott Stallings
  • Kyle Stanley
  • Kevin Streelman
  • Chris Stroud
  • Brian Stuard
  • Adam Svensson
  • Callum Tarren
  • Nick Taylor
  • Vaughn Taylor
  • Sahith Theegala
  • Curtis Thompson
  • Michael Thompson
  • Brendon Todd
  • Martin Trainer
  • Cameron Tringale
  • Kevin Tway
  • Peter Uihlein
  • Dawie van der Walt
  • Bo Van Pelt
  • Camilo Villegas
  • Johnson Wagner
  • Jimmy Walker
  • Nick Watney
  • Richy Werenski
  • Vince Whaley
  • Jared Wolfe
  • Brandon Wu
  • Dylan Wu
  • Cameron Young
  • Will Zalatoris

Incoming Form

Below is the top-10 for adjusted scoring average over the past 15 weeks (excluding the PNC Championship, QBE Shootout and the Hero World Challenge) :

Patrick Cantlay - 4-9

Will Zalatorisb - MC-54-MC-37-6-2

Daniel Berger - 5-20

Justin Rose - 57-40-12-33-6

Lanto Griffin - 6-7-64-40-3-30

Matt Kuchar -35-22-37-7

Ryan Palmer - MC-44-27-26-12-16

Cameron Tringale - 56-59-2-MC-7-MC-3

Seamus Power - 21-12-11-MC-4-15-3-14

Mackenzie Hughes - 25-4-29-2-MC

Past Champions (10 Years)

2021 - Daniel Berger (-18) - 2 stroke victory

2020 - Nick Taylor (-19) - 4 stroke victory

2019 - Phil Mickelson (-19) - 3 stroke victory

2018 - Ted Potter Jr (-17) - 3 stroke victory

2017 - Jordan Spieth (-19) - 4 stroke victory

2016 - Vaughn Taylor (-17) - 1 stroke victory

2015 - Brandt Snedeker (-22*) - 3 stroke victory *Tournament record

2014 - Jimmy Walker (-11) - 1 stroke victory

2013 - Brandt Snedeker (-19) - 2 stroke victory

2012 - Phil Mickelson - (-17) - 2 stroke victory

Early Leans

We have been really unlucky here over the past fortnight as Will Zalatoris (35/1) lost out in a playoff at Torrey and Seamus Power (35/1) also sat just two back after 54-holes and looked likely to charge on Sunday, before collapsing early on. This 35-40/1 range then looks a fruitful place to target going forward.

This is one event where I think it is wise to wait for the tee times and weather reports before investing heavily. If the reports suggest a stronger wind on a specific day and everyone you have picked is playing Pebble on the toughest day, it could be a disappointing week. It is not necessarily the end if this does happen, because targeting players who can cope with said conditions should be a prerequisite anyway, but it would be wise to keep an eye on the times and weather.

These early leans are presented without the knowledge of either the tee times, or a weather report close enough to the start. As it stands it looks like it is gusting slightly more on Thursday, but there is not enough to go on Monday morning.

Kevin Kisner +4000 (Bet $100 to win $4000)

Kevin Kisner has been in great form to start 2022, finishing 8th at the Tournament of Champions, a course he's not expected to compete on, and then 3rd at the Sony Open the following course, on a course that suits.

Add to this his win at the Wyndham, and previous 10th place finish here and there's plenty of reasons to think he could go well on a layout that rewards accuracy and doesn't require distance.

Kisner has ranked 8th and 22nd his last two starts in SG Approach and a performance with the irons akin to what he produced at the Tournament of Champions could well see him get in contention here.

In addition to this 10th place finish here in 2015, he finished 28th in 2019 where he was 3rd after day one and 8th after 36 holes.

He's figures here since haven't been great, but we know he turns up a lot of the time on courses that suit, which this does, as his win at the Wyndham and playoff loss at The Greenbrier attest to.

Lanto Griffin +5000 (Bet $100 to win $5000)

I am going to go back to the well with Lanto Griffin, who charged on Sunday at Torrey, to card a 65 and finish in 30th place.

That sort of momentum should see him come into this week full of optimism, after a strong start to the season has seen him post finishes of 6th, 7th and 3rd already. It was an average start to the week last time out, opening with a 73 to leave him battling with a 68 to make the cut, but he did so, and his reaped the rewards come Sunday.

A Saturday 73 took him well out of contention but he posted the round of the day yesterday and has now ranked 12th in SG App in each of his past two starts.

Griffin was 9th here in 2020 and he has won on a Robert Trent Jones Sr course on the Korn Ferry Tour and a Rees Jones (Jones' son) on the PGA Tour, at the Houston Open, so Spyglass Hill at least, should be a favourable spot for him. His best round in 2020 (67) came on that course, which is meant to be the toughest, so if he can go well there and get to grips with the scoring courses, he could be in for a big week. He might also be a good target for the lowest round of the day at Spyglass Hill, as he finished just one shot adrift of Cantlay's 66 there in 2020.

Tom Hoge +5000 (Bet $100 to win $5000)

It feels like it is going to happen for Tom Hoge sometime soon, and while he burned us at the Sony Open (MC) and many others at Torrey (MC) in recent weeks, its the spike weeks that have allowed him to finish 4th at the RSM and 2nd at the Amex that make him appealing.

Before his most recent start he had been disappointing here, but he was 12th last year, and sat in 2nd place after 54-holes, two behind Jordan Spieth. One bad swing on the 18th hole cost him a top-10 finish last year, and with the form he's shown, I think he can go close again here.

I mentioned a link to The Greenbrier in my course preview, and his 2nd place finish there in 2019 provides further confidence in this pick, as does his recent 2nd at the Amex, which is also in California and on Poa greens. Hoge has also played some solid golf at the Wyndham in the past, which doesn't hurt his case.

Given his top-3 finishes on short coastal tracks in Hawaii and the Mayakoba as well, I see no reason why he cannot contend here, with his sharp iron and wedge game.

Brandon Harkins +10000 (Bet $100 to win $10000)

You'll probably see this name a lot this week as a longshot, so I doubt by the time you read this, it will be an original selection but I like Brandon Harkins chances of elevating his game to PGA Tour-contention level this week.

Harkins has been a journeyman golfer so far in his career, but in two starts here, he has finished 15th and 28th, which were impressive results given his status on Tour. Add to that his recent win last week on the Korn Ferry Tour, in the windy Bahamas, and the fact he won the Pebble Beach Invitational, hosted here back in November, I think the California native can succeed. I don't want to put too much stock into that win in the Invitational event, despite it including some strong players, but he had a seven-shot lead at one point during the second round, so those good feelings around Pebble Beach cannot hurt. There has also been crossover in the two events in the past.

Harkins should have been back on the PGA Tour in 2020, but COVID happened and the season got pushed into a wraparound season, and he fell outside the cutoff for a card. Determined now to secure a card for next season, this is a great opportunity for him here, so he'll be desperate to take advantage.

Harkins has put in some strong work with his coach in the off-season, who happens to be the Master Instructor at Pebble Beach's Academy, so he should be more prepared than ever for this test, especially after winning for the first time.

Confidence, course form and seemingly an improving player, Harkins ticks a lot of boxes.

Greyson Sigg +15000 (Bet $100 to win $15000)

This appears to be the type of event we should be targeting Greyson Sigg in, based on early showings, and given he currently ranks 12th over the last 15 weeks in SG Approach, I like his chances of succeeding here.

Sigg has previous of winning here, having won the Carmel Cup as an amateur, and while amateur results should be treated with caution, it is a nice bonus.

Sigg's best finish so far on the PGA Tour came in the wind-affected Bermuda Championship (T22), and subsequent finishes of T33 at Mayakoba (final-round 64) and T25 at the AMEX give further confidence, especially with the latter coming on Poa greens, in an event that also features three courses and a Pro-Am format.

He finished T34 last week at Torrey, which was impressive given distance isn't his forte, and I like the solid form shown, from the former Georgia standout.

Sigg was a two-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2021, and I think he can win in his rookie season on the PGA Tour, with this possibly being one of the most suitable stops on TOUR.

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Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on all the major Tours. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, and was delighted to see his Forest team win promotion this season!

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