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Waste Management Phoenix Open Odds Preview: Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas Set for Desert Duel?

Waste Management Phoenix Open Odds. Tom Jacobs breaks down the field at this week's Waste Management Phoenix Open, and provides his early leans for the week. Last week, 55/1 shot Tom Hoge was highlighted in this very article, so let's get another winner this week.
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Waste Management Phoenix Open Odds Preview: Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas Set for Desert Duel?

After a three-week stint in California, the PGA Tour moves to Phoenix for the Waste Management Phoenix Open, where there is sure to be a party atmosphere on Super Bowl Sunday.

While the Farmers Insurance Open consciously decided to avoid going up against the NFL, the Phoenix Open loves to play out right up until the biggest game of the season.

With a raucous atmosphere on the grounds at TPC Scottsdale, many get their parties started at this event, namely on the Par-3, 16th, before setting off to watch the Super Bowl. The Cincinnati Bengals will be looking to cause an upset against the home favorites, the Los Angeles Rams, and a player down the odds board will look to do the same here in this event. Be sure to check out the content all week long here at Oddschecker as we look to cover the two biggest sporting events of the week.

Make sure you check out the latest Waste Management Phoenix Open odds here

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How To Watch The Waste Management Phoenix Open

Television: Thursday-Friday, 3 p.m.-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). Saturday, 1 p.m.-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6:30 p.m. (CBS). Sunday, 1 p.m.-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6 p.m. (CBS)

Qualifying Criteria For The Waste Management Phoenix Open

PGA Championship winner (Five Year Exemption)

U.S. Open winner (Fiver Year Exemption)

Masters winner (Five Year Exemption)

Open Championship winner (Five Year Exemption)

PLAYERS Champions (Since 1996)

WGC winners (Three Year Exemption)

Arnold Palmer Invitational, Memorial Tournament and Genesis Invitational winners (Three Year Exemption)

PGA Tournament winners (Two Year Exemption)

Career Money Exemptions

Sponsors Exemptions

Top 125 FedEx Cup (Last Season)

Major Medical Extension

Korn Ferry Tour Points Winners (The 25 & Finals 25)

Last Year

At one stage last year, it looked like it was a case of "who's not going to lose this event", until an inspired Brooks Koepka chipped in with eagle on the par-4 17th and then saved par on his 72nd hole, to win by one.

It was Jordan Spieth and Xander Schauffele in the driving seat going into Sunday, both five ahead of eventual winner, Koepka, but neither could get the job done.

Schauffele did manage to finish in T2, with Kyoung-Hoon Lee, but Spieth who shot a superb 61 on the Saturday fell down a further spot.

James Hahn was another player who grabbed the lead at one point, as he went into his back nine in front, but he bogeyed four of his last eight holes to fall to 15-under and four short of Koepka's total.

You could argue with a 65, and two eagles on the day, that Koepka won this event, but the event will live in the memory as a missed opportunity for Xander Schauffele in particular, until he gets that next PGA Tour victory.

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The Favorites

Jon Rahm

Rinse and repeat for Jon Rahm. Not only is he always in decent current form when writing these, but he also seems to have great course history.. Shocking from the World No.1.

The former Arizona Sun Devil may not have won here yet, but he finished 5th on debut back in 2015, long before he was the player he is now, and since then, he's finished 16th, 11th, 10th, 9th and 13th.

What he needs to do to improve on his first showing here remains to be seen, but he should be refreshed and ready for the challenge after taking a break last week, following a disappointment at Torrey Pines.

It is impossible to rule out the World No.1 here, even at the odds.

Justin Thomas

Like Rahm, Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at Torrey Pines, but while Thomas dropped to 20th after co-leading with the Spaniard after 36 holes, Rahm still finished 3rd.

A 73-74 weekend from one of the world's best is not what you expect and Thomas will be looking for a quick bounce back on a course he's enjoyed over the years.

In seven starts here, Thomas has made five cuts, finished 3rd twice and never finished worse than 17th when making the weekend, so you would expect another strong challenge from him here.

There does appear to be something missing with Thomas right now, but he's likely to find it at any point.

Viktor Hovland

No matter where he's been playing, anyone that has won three of their last five events and finished 4th in one other, simply has to be applauded.

Now the 3rd best player in the world, the only thing Hovland can really do to elevate is game is to contend in WGC and Majors regularly. He's won plenty enough, in both good DP World Tour fields and a couple of solid PGA Tour events at the Mayakoba, so while winning here would hardly move the needle, some may consider it important.

There is still some that want him to add to his mainland USA win total, but that will come, and it would be no surprise were it to be here in Phoenix.

He missed the cut here two years ago on debut, but that likely means very little. He is excellent Tee-to-Green and that will be the difference here, especially on a course where eagles need to be made.

Patrick Cantlay

Patrick Cantlay was miserable yesterday at Pebble where he and Spieth were the most likely winners, and he will hope to put that to the back of his mind quickly.

Unlikely to get into the party spirit at the 16th hole here, he is unlikely to benefit from the rowdy crowd, but that's just one hole and on the surface, the course suits as most do on TOUR when it comes to Cantlay.

He made three bogeys and seven pars over his last eleven holes yesterday, with a sole birdie on the last when way out of contention, the only consolation.

When you look at who has won here, he fits the bill perfectly, and his form at the Shriners (1st and 2nd) and the American Express (2nd, 9th and 9th) should serve him well ahead of this test.

Hideki Matsuyama

In eight starts here Matsuyama has back-to-back wins, a 2nd, and a 4th, and the only time he's not made the cut is when he had to withdraw in 2018.

His last three starts here are his worst, and yet he still has two top-16 finishes and his 42nd last year was horrendous by his standards, which highlights his love affair with TPC Scottsdale.

Arriving to this event for the first time as a major winner, Matsuyama will be excited to contend again, especially after a week off has given him time to get over the niggling injury he carried at Torrey Pines.

He's the only player with multiple wins so far on Tour this season, and there would be no surprise were he to make it three wins already, come Sunday.

Incoming Form (2022)

Below are the top-10 in adjusted scoring average since the start of 2022:

Bubba Watson - 2

Jon Rahm - 2-14-3

Harold Varner - 22-1

Luke List - 22-1

Patrick Cantlay - 4-9-4

Russell Henley - 2-14

Tom Hoge - MC-2-MC-1

Matt Fitzpatrick - 6

Viktor Hovland - 30-4-1

Hideki Matsuyama - 13-1-30

If we remove those with two starts or less, the following make the list:

Pat Perez - MC-6-9

Seamus Power - 15-3-14-9

Andrew Putnam - 27-14-6

Denny McCarthy - 48-6-12

Billy Horschel - 22-36-11

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Past Champions (10 Years)

2021 - Brooks Koepka (-19) - 1 stroke victory

2020 - Webb Simpson (-17) - Playoff (Tony Finau)

2019 - Rickie Fowler (-17) - 2 stroke victory

2018 - Gary Woodland (-18) - Playoff (Chez Reavie)

2017 - Hideki Matsuyama (-17) - Playoff (Webb Simpson)

2016 - Hideki Matsuyama (-14) - Playoff (Rickie Fowler)

2015 - Brooks Koepka (-15) - 1 stroke

2014 - Kevin Stadler (-16) - 1 stroke

2013 - Phil Mickelson (-28*) - 4 strokes - * Tournament Record

2012 - Kyle Stanley (-15) - 1 stroke

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Early Leans

Scottie Scheffler 33/1

He gets his knocks, including from myself at times but I finally feel he is a price that I am willing to chance him at.

So far this season he has three top-4 finishes, including two 2nd's, and while it has been the same old story in terms of getting over the line, it will happen eventually.

He's been T25 and T20 in his two starts in 2022, which may see him come in under-the-radar this week given the strength of the top of the market, and considering he was properly in contention thru 54 holes here last year (T3 one back) I cannot ignore him.

Like Schauffele and Spieth, he should have done better on Sunday, but watching Luke List and Tom Hoge get over the line for the first time should remind us that patience is often rewarded, and anywhere he's finished 7th the year before would fill me with confidence.

Russell Henley 50/1

Russell Henley had a great chance to win at the Sony Open two starts ago, and while he let down his backers there, surrendering a five-stroke lead heading into the back nine, I liked his follow up finish of T14 at the American Express.

The American Express is not an event he'd played that well in the past, missing 4 out of 6 cuts there, and posting a best finish of 49th before this renewal.

So not only did he overcome disappointment in Hawaii by finishing 14th but he did it an event he's never particularly enjoyed, speaking to his obvious form right now.

In nine starts here, he has two top-16 finishes and a 30th last year, so while he's never stood out at this event, he's been solid enough and given his current ball-striking prowess, I will chance he posts his best ever finish here, given the easier greens at this event.

In 2015 he finished 59th here, but he was actually 8th after 54 holes and it was a final-round 78 that put to sword a chance of a top-10 finish here.

He's shot two 3rd round 65's here, so should he get off to a faster start this week, we could see him in contention on Sunday once again.

Ranking 1st in SG Approach over the last eight weeks and 2nd in SG Tee-to-Green, not many are going to hit the ball better, it will just come down to his form on and around the greens.

Billy Horschel 60/1

Billy Horschel's form here is better than it first appears, and his current form suggests he can eclipse his previous best of 9th here.

He's made 8 of 9 cuts here, and has two top-11's and four top-24's in total in that span.

Five rounds of 66 or better here show he can go low when in form, and while his irons aren't as hot I would like, he does seem outperform expectation when viewing him solely from a statistical point of view.

You have to go back to the U.S. Open last June for Horschel's last missed cut, and his course figures suggest he will be working on the weekend again here, so hopefully he can fire a couple of low rounds on the weekend.

Horschel has spent five of his last eight rounds in this event inside the top-9, he just needs two piece together two consecutive weekend rounds here.

Max Homa 80/1

It is a home game for Max Homa, who bases himself in Scottsdale these days, and in three starts in this event, he has finished 26th, 6th and 42nd.

He is a better player now, and while he missed the cut at Torrey Pines last time out, it was on the number, and I can see him bouncing back quickly here.

When 6th here in 2020, he opened up with a round of 72, but followed with rounds of 67-64-68 to climb the leaderboard. In each of his other two starts here he's not been in contention, but they were solid enough to think, as an improved player this time around, he can win.

In the key range of 175-200 yards, Homa ranked 23rd last year and he's proven in the past his long iron play is up to the task, so that's a positive.

The week off should have served him well after the missed cut, and I will chance at decent odds he can add another memorable trophy to his cabinet.

Pat Perez 100/1

Pat Perez has on three occasions over his past eleven starts here, sat inside top-6 here after 36 holes and while his best finish in that span is 11th, I think he is not only in great form, but in a perfect mindset to take advantage here.

Perez has always blown hot and cold on TOUR, such is his demeanour and inconsistent game, but he appears to be in that "grateful" stage of his career, which could lead to another trophy.

He's finished 6th (Farmers) and 9th (Pebble) in his last two starts and now gets a home game, and while I don't want to overplay that narrative, as I may have done already with Homa, I think its a benefit for Perez.

It has been over four years since he won last on TOUR and the window is certainly closing, so lets hope he can take advantage of a good spot here.

The Field

  • Abraham Ancer
  • Daniel Berger
  • Keegan Bradley
  • Joseph Bramlett
  • Wesley Bryan
  • Sam Burns
  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Kevin Chappell
  • Stewart Cink
  • Wyndham Clark
  • Corey Conners
  • Joel Dahmen
  • Cam Davis
  • Luke Donald
  • Jason Dufner
  • Tyler Duncan
  • Austin Eckroat
  • Harris English
  • Tony Finau
  • Matt Fitzpatrick
  • Rickie Fowler
  • Dylan Frittelli
  • Brice Garnett
  • Brian Gay
  • Doug Ghim
  • Lucas Glover
  • Talor Gooch
  • Branden Grace
  • Emiliano Grillo
  • Bill Haas
  • Chesson Hadley
  • Adam Hadwin
  • Brandon Hagy
  • James Hahn
  • Brian Harman
  • Russell Henley
  • Lucas Herbert
  • Kramer Hickok
  • Garrick Higgo
  • Harry Higgs
  • Craig Hocknull
  • Charley Hoffman
  • Tom Hoge
  • Max Homa
  • Billy Horschel
  • Beau Hossler
  • Viktor Hovland
  • Charles Howell III
  • Stephan Jaeger
  • Zach Johnson
  • Matt Jones
  • Sung Kang
  • Si Woo Kim
  • Chris Kirk
  • Kevin Kisner
  • Patton Kizzire
  • Russell Knox
  • Brooks Koepka
  • Kelly Kraft
  • Matt Kuchar
  • Anirban Lahiri
  • Martin Laird
  • Nate Lashley
  • Hank Lebioda
  • Danny Lee
  • K.H. Lee
  • Luke List
  • Adam Long
  • Peter Malnati
  • Hideki Matsuyama
  • Denny McCarthy
  • Tyler McCumber
  • Graeme McDowell
  • William McGirt
  • Maverick McNealy
  • Troy Merritt
  • Keith Mitchell
  • Francesco Molinari
  • Ryan Moore
  • Sebastián Muñoz
  • Matthew NeSmith
  • Seung-Yul Noh
  • Alex Noren
  • Henrik Norlander
  • Louis Oosthuizen
  • Carlos Ortiz
  • C.T. Pan
  • Mito Pereira
  • Pat Perez
  • Scott Piercy
  • J.T. Poston
  • Seamus Power
  • Andrew Putnam
  • Jon Rahm
  • Chez Reavie
  • Patrick Rodgers
  • Sam Ryder
  • Rory Sabbatini
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Scottie Scheffler
  • Adam Schenk
  • Adam Scott
  • Webb Simpson
  • Roger Sloan
  • Brandt Snedeker
  • Jordan Spieth
  • Scott Stallings
  • Kyle Stanley
  • Brendan Steele
  • Sepp Straka
  • Robert Streb
  • Kevin Streelman
  • Brian Stuard
  • Preston Summerhays
  • Hudson Swafford
  • Nick Taylor
  • Sahith Theegala
  • Justin Thomas
  • Michael Thompson
  • Brendon Todd
  • Martin Trainer
  • Kevin Tway
  • Harold Varner III
  • Jimmy Walker
  • Matt Wallace
  • Nick Watney
  • Bubba Watson
  • Aaron Wise
  • Gary Woodland


Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on all the major Tours. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, and was delighted to see his Forest team win promotion this season!


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