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Honda Classic Odds Preview: Sungjae Im and Daniel Berger Lead the Betting Market

Tom Jacobs is back after three-straight winners in this article, and he will be hoping to make it four in a row, as the TOUR stops in Florida for the first time this season. The Honda Classic suffered due to its spot in the schedule. Despite this, there is still some value to be had.
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Honda Classic Odds Preview: Sungjae Im and Daniel Berger Lead the Betting Market

How To Watch The Honda Classic

Television: Thursday-Friday, 2 p.m.-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). Saturday, 1 p.m.-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6 p.m. (NBC). Sunday, 1 p.m.-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6 p.m. (NBC)

Qualifying Criteria For The Honda Classic

Major Winner (5-Year Exemption)

WGC Winner (3-Year Exemption)

PGA Tournament Winner (2-Year Exemption)

Career Money Exemption

Sponsor’s Exemptions

PGA Section Champion/Player of the Year

Top-125 in FedEx Cup (Previous Season)

Major Medical Extension

Korn Ferry Tour Points Winner (The 25 and Finals 25)

Three-time Korn Ferry Tour Winner (one season)

Korn Ferry Tour Graduates (via reshuffle)

126-150 on previous season’s FedEx Cup (reshuffle)

Last Year

Last year Matt Jones ensured there was little drama here, last year, after he rode on the wings of his opening day 61, which tied the course record. Aaron Wise held the lead after 36 holes, but 69 from Jones on Saturday put him back to three in front. Jones’ final-day 68 put him five strokes clear in the end, for the record-tying margin of victory at this event, joining Camilo Villegas and Jack Nicklaus as 5-stroke victors.

Click here for the latest Honda Classic odds

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The Favorites

Sungjae Im +1400

Sungjae Im is a former winner of this event and a winner already in this new season, so it is no great surprise to see him leading the betting this week.

Aside from his win he's finished 51st and 8th here and as Bermuda is his favourite putting surface, he will be delighted to get back to this venue and Florida in general.

Im is 12th among this field in SG Tee-to-Green and 6th in current form since the start of 2022, so everything points toward another solid week at PGA National for Im.

I can't bet him as a favorite, but I wouldn't put off anyone that wanted to either.

Daniel Berger +1600

Despite some question marks over his health (back), there is every reason to think after a break that Daniel Berger could come back and succeed here.

Berger's finished 20th and 5th so far this season, then missed the cut at Phoenix, before taking last week at Riviera off to recover.

He's lost in a playoff here to Padraig Harrington in the past, and after following that up with two missed cuts, his last three starts read 29-36-4 here.

If he's healthy I suspect he will feature over the weekend here, but I won't take the risk at the odds available.

Brooks Koepka +1800

Brooks as ever is an enigma and you never know quite what to expect from him. This is a home game and he's finished 2nd here before so the temptation would be to bet him, but at the price he's easy to pass for me.

His 3rd place finish at the Phoenix was bordered by two missed cuts, and his T28 at the Tournament of Champions was poor as well, so 2022 has hardly been what he'd have hoped, but there's still plenty of time left, with major season yet to start.

I will wait until then to look at Koepka.

Joaquin Niemann +1800

Niemann was superb at Riviera, winning wire-to-wire and it would be no surprise to see him withdraw before the off.

He has made 2 of 3 cuts here, with his 25th place finish last year his best effort so far, and it would be no surprise to see him eclipse that this week, if he does indeed start.

The odds aren't terrible given his current form and tee-to-green prowess, I again will just stay away from this range.

Shane Lowry +2200

Shane Lowry has played this event four times, finishing solidly on the past two occasions, and he will be looking to follow in his countryman, Padraig Harrington's footsteps and win this event before he hangs them up.

Lowry shot a 67 in his first ever round here, sitting 5th after day one in 2016, and he sat 9th after 36 holes in 2020 and 5th after 36 holes in 2021, so he continues to put himself in good positions, even if his 21st two years ago remains his best effort.

T12, T24 and T14 in his three starts worldwide in 2022, he's posting decent results without having his best stuff, so if he can his very best, we know he can win here on a course that suits.

Incoming Form (2022)

Below are the top-10 in adjusted scoring average since the start of 2022:

  • Joaquin Niemann - 6-8-1
  • Louis Oosthuizen - 14
  • Cameron Young - MC-40-20-26-2
  • Billy Horschel - 23-36-11-6
  • Keith Mitchell - 7-MC-12-10
  • Sungjae Im - 8-MC-11-6-33
  • Brian Harman - 48-3-MC-14
  • Alex Noren - MC-39-6-48
  • Shane Lowry - 12-24-14
  • Denny McCarthy - 48-6-12-MC

If we remove Louis Oosthuizen as he’s made just one start, and go for the next man on the list who’s made three starts or more, Brooks Koepka (28-MC-3-MC) based heavily on his 3rd in Phoenix.

Past Champions (10 Years)

  • 2021 - Matt Jones (-12) - 5 strokes
  • 2020 - Sungjae Im (-6) - 1 stroke
  • 2019 - Keith Mitchell (-9) - 1 stroke
  • 2018 - Justin Thomas (-8) - Playoff v Luke List
  • 2017 - Rickie Fowler (-12) - 4 strokes
  • 2016 - Adam Scott (-9) - 1 stroke
  • 2015 - Padraig Harrington (-6) - Playoff v Daniel Berger
  • 2014 - Russell Henley (-8) - Playoff v Rory McIlroy and Russell Knox
  • 2013 - Michael Thompson (-9) - 2 strokes
  • 2012 - Rory McIlroy (-12) - 2 strokes

For the latest Honda Classic odds, click here

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Early Leans

Cameron Tringale +3100

Cameron Tringale has been playing the most consistent golf of his career, and while he's yet to be rewarded with his maiden PGA Tour victory, I do believe it will come and this looks a good spot for it.

Tringale ranks 11th in SG Tee-to-Green since the start of 2022 and he's been playing well across the board for a long time now, and he will need all facets of his game to succeed here.

He finished 3rd at Torrey Pines and 13th last week at Riviera, so his form on tough golf courses has been good so far this year, and his two missed cuts have come on multi-course rotations, which are always birdie-fests, so I am not concerned about those. His current form is good enough for 15th in this field since the start of 2022, and I suspect he will be higher than that after this week.

In his last three starts here, he's steadily improved (36-27-13) but he was also playing well here in bursts before, without putting together four rounds.

On debut in 2011, he was inside the top-20 after the first 36-holes, and in 2014 he played well again, sitting in 9th after 54-holes, thanks to a Saturday 66. That was his third-straight sub-70 round that week, and while a final round 75 saw him fall to 41st, I think he's better prepared to stick around these days.

In 2019 he was 12th at the 36 and 54-hole mark, and fell away again on Sunday, and in 2020 he was 3rd after day one, 15th after day two and it was only a slow weekend (pair of 72's) that saw him drop to 27th. Last year he was inside the top-10 after the first 36-holes and climbed to 4th on Saturday, but again a final-round 72 saw him fall.

Tringale has sat right around TOUR average in Round 4 scoring average over the past two seasons, so he'll need to improve on that to get a win this time around, but its easy to forget Tringale is just 34-years-old, and should still have his best years ahead of him. We have seen with Luke List and Tom Hoge recently not to give up on talented players, just because they haven't got over the line yet, and I will hope the trend of first-time winners continues this week.

I don't love the odds, but I do really like his chances, so with the premise of this article being "early leans" I will still include him, and hope he drifts to a more attractive price.

Keith Mitchell +4000

Keith Mitchell is boom or bust here, with a win, a 53rd and two missed cuts in four starts, but while he hasn't been consistent on this track, he's been consistent on TOUR dating back to his T3 at the CJ Cup in October.

Since that T3 finish there, where he probably should have won, he's missed just once cut in his past seven starts, and finished inside the top-12 on four occasions in that span. In 2022 in isolation, he has finished T7 at the Sony, MC at the Farmers, T12 at Pebble and T10 at Phoenix.

Mitchell ranks 8th among this field in SG Tee-to-Green since the start of this calendar year, proving his game is in excellent shape, and I am willing to bet on a peak performance on this course once again.

He's not 200/1 like he was here two years ago, but for good reason and I still think there's enough value in backing Mitchell, who's due another victory.

His 2nd at the Corales, two top-8 finishes at Quail Hollow and his T7 finish at the Sony this year all solidify his suitability to this test, so I am happy to chance he goes well again on a course he's already won at

At 40/1, people will want bigger, but what price can you really make a player who's won at this course, is in this sort of form and has no top-10 players to go up against? I will take a shot.

Ryan Palmer +6600

Ryan Palmer has made two cuts and missed two in 2022 so far, but there's a lot to take away from the two he's made.

He finished T12 at the Sony, an event he's won and T16 at Torrey, where he continues to play well, so the fact he's performing at courses he likes, suggests he can continue that trend here.

Palmer has lost in a playoff to Russell Henley here (2014) and also has a 4th place finish (2019) to his name here.

Aside from those two standout performances, he's made 9 of 12 cuts here overall, finishing inside the top-26 six times in total.

When 37th in 2017, he led after 36-holes and sat 5th after 54, but a poor Saturday saw him fall away.

He has six rounds of 66 or better here in the past, so he can go low on this tough layout and that's a staple of his career, going well on tougher layouts, and I will chance he continues his good form both in 2022 and at this golf course.

C.T. Pan +9000

C.T. Pan is an interesting prospect on the PGA Tour, as he pops up on several occasions, in a mix of fields, and his 9th place finish at the Genesis Invitational last week was a good warm up.

He finished 3rd here last year, but everyone was chasing Jones' shadow, and that was the latest in a line of good starts here.

Pan missed the cut in the two years prior to his 3rd in 2021, but he was 37th on debut in 2017, where he sat 5th after 18 holes and in the same spot after 36 holes as well. A 73-72 weekend saw him fall away, but he came back strong a year later, finishing 17th, where he shot 71 the first three days, before a 69 on Sunday saw him climb.

His win at the Heritage is not insignificant given Jack Nicklaus involvement in helping Pete and Alice Dye design that course, and his T18 finish at Quail Hollow last year gives him the Fazio form as well.

Hudson Swafford +18000

Hudson Swafford is one of those two-time winners on TOUR that many like to use as a barometer when suggesting the likes of Tony Finau under-deliver. It is not fair to compare the two given the stark difference of the regularity of Finau contending in major fields and bigger tournaments, but there is no getting away from the fact that Swafford has won twice on TOUR.

The second of those came recently at the American Express, and he had that sort of swagger down the stretch that big-time players have, and I feel he's still got plenty to offer in his career.

With the Sony Open an obvious correlation, his 3rd and 9th place finishes there in the past offer a layer of confidence, as does his form at Tom Fazio and Jack Nicklaus designs.

In my course preview article, I noted there was a lot of crossover with the Canadian Open when hosted at Glen Abbey (Nicklaus design), and Swafford finished 11th there in 2018. He's also a two-time winner at the CareerBuilder/American Express, which features a Nicklaus in its rotation. If we consider the original designer, Swafford's also won the Corales, finished 2nd at the Palmetto, and 10th at the WGC Bridgestone, all of which are Tom Fazio designs.

Like Billy Horschel and Joaquin Niemann in week's past, there is more to Swafford's form line at this golf course as well. On debut in 2014, Swafford was sitting 11th after day one and was still 24th after 54-holes, before falling away on the final day. Two years later he was 5th after 36-holes, thanks to a second-round 65, before a pair of 76's over the weekend saw him fall to 65th. Two years further on again, Swafford opened with a 73, but managed to sit 11th after 54-holes, before again a poor final round saw him tumble on Sunday. Lastly he was 21st two starts ago here, where he was 33rd or better after each round.

Swafford of course needs to put it together for four rounds here, but there's enough evidence that he can score well enough on any given day here, and if his recent win allows him the confidence to hang in over the four rounds, he could provide great value.

The Field

  • Kiradech Aphibarnrat
  • Paul Barjon
  • Daniel Berger
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  • Wesley Bryan
  • Hayden Buckley
  • Bronson Burgoon
  • Stewart Cink
  • Erik Compton
  • Austin Cook
  • Joshua Creel
  • Luke Donald
  • Brett Drewitt
  • Jason Dufner
  • Tyler Duncan
  • Tommy Fleetwood
  • Rickie Fowler
  • Dylan Frittelli
  • Brice Garnett
  • Brian Gay
  • Doug Ghim
  • Michael Gligic
  • Lucas Glover
  • Bill Haas
  • Brandon Hagy
  • Nick Hardy
  • Brian Harman
  • Padraig Harrington
  • Lucas Herbert
  • Jim Herman
  • Kramer Hickok
  • Garrick Higgo
  • Harry Higgs
  • Lee Hodges
  • Nicolai Hojgaard
  • Billy Horschel
  • Beau Hossler
  • Charles Howell III
  • Mark Hubbard
  • Mackenzie Hughes
  • John Huh
  • Sungjae Im
  • Stephan Jaeger
  • Zach Johnson
  • Matt Jones
  • Sung Kang
  • Martin Kaymer
  • Chris Kirk
  • Kurt Kitayama
  • Jim Knous
  • Russell Knox
  • Brooks Koepka
  • Chase Koepka
  • Ben Kohles
  • Kelly Kraft
  • Anirban Lahiri
  • Nate Lashley
  • Hank Lebioda
  • K.H. Lee
  • David Lipsky
  • Davis Love III
  • Justin Lower
  • Shane Lowry
  • Denny McCarthy
  • Tyler McCumber
  • William McGirt
  • Max McGreevy
  • Keith Mitchell
  • Taylor Moore
  • Alan Morin
  • Trey Mullinax
  • Grayson Murray
  • Matthew NeSmith
  • Joaquin Niemann
  • Seung-Yul Noh
  • Alex Noren
  • Andrew Novak
  • Louis Oosthuizen
  • Ryan Palmer
  • C.T. Pan
  • Taylor Pendrith
  • Mito Pereira
  • J.T. Poston
  • Ian Poulter
  • Aaron Rai
  • Chad Ramey
  • Doc Redman
  • Patrick Reed
  • Seth Reeves
  • Davis Riley
  • Patrick Rodgers
  • Sam Ryder
  • Rory Sabbatini
  • Adam Schenk
  • Matthias Schwab
  • Charl Schwartzel
  • Chase Seiffert
  • Greyson Sigg
  • David Skinns
  • Roger Sloan
  • Alex Smalley
  • Austin Smotherman
  • J.J. Spaun
  • Kyle Stanley
  • Brendan Steele
  • Henrik Stenson
  • Sepp Straka
  • Robert Streb
  • Kevin Streelman
  • Chris Stroud
  • Brian Stuard
  • Adam Svensson
  • Hudson Swafford
  • Callum Tarren
  • Nick Taylor
  • Curtis Thompson
  • Michael Thompson
  • Brendon Todd
  • Martin Trainer
  • Cameron Tringale
  • Kevin Tway
  • Peter Uihlein
  • Dawie van der Walt
  • Jhonattan Vegas
  • Camilo Villegas
  • Jimmy Walker
  • Nick Watney
  • Richy Werenski
  • Kyle Westmoreland
  • Lee Westwood
  • Vince Whaley
  • Danny Willett
  • Aaron Wise
  • Jared Wolfe
  • Matthew Wolff
  • Gary Woodland
  • Brandon Wu
  • Dylan Wu
  • Cameron Young


Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on all the major Tours. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, and was delighted to see his Forest team win promotion this season!


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