Honda Classic Betting Preview: Louis Oosthuizen to Get Over the Hump

Honda Classic Betting Preview: Louis Oosthuizen to Get Over the Hump

The West Coast swing is officially over as the Tour heads east for four straight events played in Florida as the Masters are now just over a month away. Pinned between two Tour-favorite events in the Genesis and next week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Honda Classic typically features a less than elite field; as it does this year.

Even still, there’s plenty of value to be had for those who dig deep enough, and the weaker than average field typically provides value to bettors. Let’s take a look at the event, course, and field this week and see where the value remains. 

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Past Winners of The Honda Classic

• 2021: Matt Jones
• 2020: Im Sung-Jae
• 2019: Keith Mitchell

Course Preview: PGA National Resort & Spa - The Champion Course

PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, FL will prove to be a challenge to these guys, as there is no shortage of hazards and outside of the majors, consistently proves the most difficult to score on year after year. While it sits under the Tour average in distance at 7,125 yards, PGA National features 15 holes with water in play and one of the most daunting stretches in golf through holes 15-17 aptly named “The Bear Trap”. 

Because of its proximity to the water, the wind will be a factor throughout the weekend with many holes facing directly into it. Because of the hazards throughout and shorter yardage, guys long off the tee have often struggled here. Instead, we’ll be focusing on players who excel in and around the greens and can scramble as they deal with the high winds and high-pressure shots with water in the equation.

As this Florida swing begins, putting on Bermuda greens, as they’ll see this week at PGA National, will also be a key metric to keep an eye on in selecting a winner. With 12 par 4s in total, Par-4 scoring will have a higher emphasis than usual as the distance is largely taken out of the equation throughout. 

Relevant Betting Course Metrics

• SG: Approach
• SG: Scrambling
• SG: Ball Striking
• Bermuda Greens

Outright Picks

Louis Oosthuizen (+2000) (Bet $100 to win $2000)

With the top 12 of the world’s top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) not in the field for this one; at 13th Oosthuizen is #1 at PGA National. He also comes in #1 in the field in SG: Difficult Conditions, and inside the top 15 in SG: Scrambling and SG: Ball Striking. 

As far as the treacherous hazards surrounding many of the greens this week, Oosthuizen also excels in the much-need SG: Approach, ranking top 10 on Tour as of this week. In his four played events to start the 2021-22 season, Oosthuizen has finished T15 twice, shooting 69 or lower in all three weekends he has played. 

Since 2017, Oosthuizen has had two top 25s here at PGA National in his three starts. However, looking at courses that compare in style, such as Innisbrook down the road at Palm Harbor, and Oosthuizen’s track record is even stronger. In his three starts at the Valspar dating back to 2018, Oosthuizen has two top 10s including a 2nd in 2019. 

Russell Knox (+6500) (Bet $100 to win $2000)

Knox’s odds are all over the place this week, as low as +4100 at FanDuel, but I think the +6500 over at DK Sportsbook offers a ton of value. While par should be enough to make the cut this week, Knox is the best player on Tour when it comes to managing The Bear Trap at -6 over the course of his eight appearances here. 

Speaking of those appearances, it’s been quite the mixed bag in total. After his first two appearances finished 2nd and 3rd in 2014 and 2015, Knox has four missed cuts in his six appearances since, which in part leads to his long odds here. 

This season, however, Knox ranks in the top 10 in SG: Approach, as well as SG: Proximity 150-200 yards, two key metrics for success. After playing as much golf as anyone on Tour so far this season with 12 starts (9 made cuts) so far, I like for Knox to break his three straight events finishing T33, and be in contention come Sunday afternoon.

Click here for full 2022 Honda Classic odds