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Arnold Palmer Invitational Course Preview and Odds: Another Tough Week Incoming in Florida

A strong field has assembled for Arnie's tournament, and after years of seeing this event on our TV screens, we are accustomed to what it takes to win round here. Tom Jacobs takes a look in detail at what the players will have to overcome here, in order to win this great event.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational Course Preview and Odds: Another Tough Week Incoming in Florida

The Course

  • Bay Hill Club & Lodge
  • Length: 7,466 Yards
  • Par: 72
  • Greens: TifEagle Bermuda
  • Designer: Dick Wilson (Arnold Palmer renovation, 2009)
  • Course Record: 62 - Andy Bean (1981), Greg Norman (1984), Adam Scott (2014)

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Dick Wilson, the original designer of this golf course was also the designer of the Dubsdread course at Cog Hill, which hosted the BMW Championship in 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011 as well as the Western Open from 1991-2006.

Tiger Woods is an eight-time winner of this event and won five times at Cog Hill.

Ben Crenshaw won the Western Open in 1992 and this event in 1993.

Justin Rose won the 2011 BMW Championship at Cog Hill and was 2nd and 3rd here.

Wilson also designed the Blue Monster at Doral course, which hosted WGC-Cadillac Championship (2007-2016).

Tiger Woods won on both courses.

Vijay has a win and three runner-up finishes here and finished 2nd at Blue Monster at Doral.

Francesco Molinari has won here and finished 3rd at Doral.

Rose won the 2012 WGC-Cadillac and was 2nd and 3rd here.

Adam Scott won the 2016 WGC-Cadillac and holds the course record here.

Arnold Palmer modified several holes at Quail Hollow back in the day, and I don't think that is irrelevant.

When you look at Quail Hollow form, Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Vijay Singh and Jason Day (all class players) have won both events.

Sean O'Hair won at Quail Hollow and finished 2nd here.

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Correlating Courses & Events

Valero Texas Open - TPC San Antonio

There has been a decent amount of crossover between these two events, to make it noteworthy.

Martin Laird has won both events.

Matt Every is a two-time winner here and finished 2nd at the Valero.

Rory McIlroy has won this event and finished 2nd to Laird at the Valero.

Bart Bryant has won the Valero and finished 2nd here.

Charley Hoffman has won and has three runner-up finishes at the Valero. He has finished 2nd here.

Kevin Chappell has a win and a 2nd at Valero and a 2nd here.

Corey Conners has won the Valero and finished 3rd here.

Justin Rose has finished 2nd at both events.

Sean O'Hair's finished 2nd at both events.

Golf Club of Houston (Houston Open 2003-2019) and Trinity Forest (Bryson Nelson 2018, 2019) may also be worth focusing on, when looking at Texas form, as there is crossover in those events with the likes of Matt Every, Keith Mitchell, Henrik Stenson and Sung Kang.

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Shiners Open (TPC Summerlin)

Tiger Woods has won both events.

Martin Laird has won both events.

Bryson DeChambeau has won both events.

Rod Pampling has won both events.

Stuart Appleby has won the Shriners and finished 2nd here.

Kevin Na has won and finished 2nd at the Shriners and finished 2nd here.

Sungjae Im won the Shriners and has two 3rd place finishes here.

BMW Championship (2017, 2015, 2013 - Conway Farms)

It is a small sample size, but it is worth looking into the 2013, 2015 and 2017 BMW Championship leaderboards.

Marc Leishman won the 2017 BMW Championship at Conway Farms and has won here.

Jason Day won the 2015 BMW Championship at Conway Farms and has won here.

Zach Johnson won the 2013 BMW Championship at Conway Farms and has 3rd, 5th and 9th place finishes here over the past 15 years.

Justin Rose has 2nd and 3rd place finishes here and was 2nd to Marc Leishman at Conway Farms in 2017.

Rory McIlroy was 4th at Conway Farms in 2015 and has won here.

Francesco Molinari was T12 at Conway Farms in 2017 and has won here.

Rickie Fowler was 2nd at Conway Farms in 2017 and 4th in 2015, while also finishing 3rd here in the past.

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Course Form (Past 10 Years)

Below is the Top-10 for adjusted scoring average over the past 10 years at this event:

Rory McIlroy - 11-27-4-1-6-5-10

Bryson DeChambeau - 27-2-46-4-1

Sungjae Im - 3-3-21

Christiaan Bezuidenhout - 18-7

Tyrrell Hatton - 4-69-29-1-21

Matt Wallace - 6-24-18

Keith Mitchell - 6-5-43

Will Zalatoris - 10

Adam Schenk - 29

Tommy Fleetwood - 10-26-3-MC-10

If we remove Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Will Zalatoris and Adam Schenk due to them making less than three starts, the following players with three or more starts enter the fray:

Luke List - 17-7-10-63

Matt Fitzpatrick - MC-27-13-MC-2-9-10

Henrik Stenson - 15-8-5-2-3-MC-4-17-MC-MC

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Key Stats

Stroked Gained Approach - Rinse and repeat from last week, and indeed every week.

Bermuda Putting - Like last week, there are players that hugely favour this surface over those we have seen on the West Coast.

Proximity from 200+ - Three of the four Par 3's will play over 200 yards here, and the 7th plays around that number as well. This yardage will also be imperative when it comes to the Par 5's and some of the longer par 4's, so long iron play is huge here.

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Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on all the major Tours. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, and was delighted to see his Forest team win promotion this season!


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