2022 Valspar Championship Betting Preview: Course Preview, Past Winners and Predictions

2022 Valspar Championship Betting Preview: Course Preview, Past Winners and Predictions

Following a soggy PLAYERS Championship that ended with a Monday finish and Cameron Smith win, the Tour heads northwest for the Valspar Championship just outside of Tampa, FL. In what will be one of the shortest weeks of the season for these guys, players that weren’t in the field last week certainly deserve a look.

Mostly cloudy weather will be a welcomed sight for players who had to deal with +30MPH and sideways rain last week, as Innisbrook should be in great condition. In this week’s field, five of the world’s top-10 will be in action as Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas find themselves atop the odds board. Rounding out those in the top-10, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, and Dustin Johnson are expected to tee it up come Thursday. 

With returning champion Sam Burns in the field along with Brooks Koepka, let’s take a closer look at two guys I expect to go low come Sunday after in Palm Harbor. 

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Past Winners of The Valspar Championship

• 2021: Sam Burns
• 2020: N/A
• 2019 Paul Casey

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Course Preview: Innisbrook Resort and Golf Course (Copperhead Course)

Spectators watching the Valspar for the first time this week will have a hard time believing they are still in Florida, as the fairways are lined with pine trees and thick, rolling rough. With elevated tee boxes starting with #1, many golfers will be teeing it up this week as they begin preparation for Augusta now just a few weeks away. 

Coming in at a Par-71 and 7,340 yards, the tight fairways cause issues as players are forced to still hit driver off the tee because of the course’s above-average length. One of the toughest courses in the South East swing, Cooperhead ranks #5 on tour in terms of difficulty. 

Unique to this course, there are five par-3s (vs. the average 4), each longer than 195 yards and averaging a score of 3.13 per hole. Unlike the other courses we’ve seen on the Florida swing, the greens at Copperhead are Poa Trivalis and run very fair in comparison. 

Relevant Betting Course Metrics

• SG: Driving Distance
• SG: Birdies
• SG: Par 3s
• Greens in Regulation
• Poa Greens

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Outright Picks

Louis Oosthuizen (+1600) (Bet $100 to win $1600)

Known for his strong play in the Florida swing of the Tour, Oosthuizen is a killer when it comes to playing here at Copperhead specifically. Looking back over his past four starts here, Oosthuizen has finished no worse than T16 and has three top 10s under his belt. 

In his five starts so far this season (not including a W/D at the RSM), Oosthuizen has two top 20s under his belt and was on-pace for one last week before a Sunday 76 at THE PLAYERS. Coming into the week #7 in the field in SG at Copperhead and well-rested following a light schedule to start the year, I like for the South African to be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon. 

At next month's Masters Tournament you can find Louis Oosthuizen at 50/1 odds to win the Masters. Last year he finished 26th at Augusta.

Top 20 Finish

Viktor Hovland (-180)(Bet $180 to win $100)

I typically would not lay this kind of number for a top 20 finish in golf but Hovland in this spot is an exception to my rule. In his past three starts, Hovland is 3-for-3 in top 10s with a T4 at the Genesis followed up with a T2 at the Arnold Palmer and T9 last week at THE PLAYERS.

Inside the top 10 on Tour in SG: OTT (.713) as well SG: Approach (1.028),  and poised to pick up his first win of the calendar year 2022 seemingly any week. To end 2021, Hovland was the most dominant player in golf, winning the rare back-to-back events in the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba and the Hero World Challenge, shooting sub-70 in all 8 rounds. 

Speaking of sub-70, Hovland went 4-for-4 in that department in his debut here last year, finishing T3 while shooting a 65 on Sunday. While we’ve already seen his outright market shrink to +900, a number too low for me to play at this point, I still think there’s some value left for a guy to finish top 20 who is dialed in as anyone on the Tour.