Corales Puntacana Championship Betting Preview: Course Preview, Past Winners and Predictions
Corales Puntacana Championship Betting Preview: Course Preview, Past Winners and Predictions
With all attention on the WGC Match Play event in Austin, TX, the official PGA Tour event will be played in Punta Cana, La Altagracia, Dominican Republic at the Corales Puntacana Championship. Originally a Web.com event, it transition to the PGA Tour in 2018 and an alternate event.
The winner of the event will receive 300 FedEx Cup points, a two-year tour exemption, and 24 OWGR points. Unlike the 2020-21 events due to the pandemic, the winner of this event will not receive an exemption to play in the 2022 Masters Tournament.
Past Winners of Corales Puntacana Championship
- 2021: John Dahmen
- 2020: Hudson Swafford
- 2019: Graeme McDowell
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Course Preview: Corales Country Club
Coming in at over 7,600 yards, Corales ranks well above the average course on Tour. With the backdrop along natural cliffs and the Caribbean Sea. With six holes directly along the Caribbean, the stretch of 16-17-18 are amongst the most challenging these guys will see all weekend. Hole #18 (Par 4), which features the need to send the ball over the Bay of Corales on the approach, is the hardest hole on the course with an average score of 4.37
Overall, however, Corales is a wide and forgiving course, and despite being significantly longer than the average course these guys see each week, those who compete on Tour each and every week. In addition to the fairways playing below average from a scoring standpoint, the greens are also generous, with no stimpeter reading of more than an 11.
Guys who go low this week should go very low, with four players having shot 64 or under in the three years the Tour has been here.
Relevant Betting Course Metrics
- SG: Driving Distance
- SG: Birdies
- SG: Par 4s
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Outright Picks
Hudson Swafford (+5000) (Bet $100 to Win $5000)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
Winning here in 2020, Swafford followed up last year with a T6 and has shown some absolute dominance of this course. In his last eight rounds, Swafford has shot 70 below in six rounds shooting a combined -27. In his 10 rounds here, Swafford ranks #3 in this week’s field shooting true strokes gained (average adjusted strokes gained at this course) of +1.36.
As far as metrics go, Swafford ranks 33rd on Tour in driving distance with an average drive of 306.7 yards per drive. He also ranks 33rd in birdie average on Tour at 4.26. With both of those metrics critical for success here at Corales, Swafford is amongst the best in the field as most of those ahead of him will be in Austin this week.
A course he’s had success with in the past is coming at just the right time for Swafford, who enters the week on the heels of four missed cuts over the past five weeks. Even still, Swafford does have a win this calendar year at The American Express Open at PGA West, with a T10 two weeks prior to that at the QBE Shootout.
During a week with a lighter than average field of elite players, I like for Swafford to get back on track and be in contention come Sunday afternoon.
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Emiliano Grillo (+3500) (Bet $100 to Win $3500)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
Coming into the week on the heels of back-to-back missed cuts, Emiliano Grillo is well overdue for a return to the form he knows he is capable of. If history here at Corales is any indication, we could see just that.
In his three starts here, Grillo is 3-for-3 on made cuts and finished T6 here in 2020. In last year’s start here, Grillo finished T21, with back-to-back 68s carrying him into the weekend.
Coming into this week, despite his struggles, Grillo is still top 50 on Tour in Driving Distance (304.4, 46th) and SG: Off-The-Tee (.387, 34th), both metrics needed for success here at Corales. With 22 top 10 finishes on Tour, Grillo has all the tools in his arsenal to compete this week and I expect the lighter than typical field to be just the medicine he needs to get back in contention.
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Johnny has been covering the sports betting markets and handicapping games for the better part of the past decade. Along the way, he has written for publications such as All-In Magazine, Blitz Predict, FantasyPros, Betting Pros, Sportsbook Review, and most recently, OddsChecker. In addition to giving out picks on Twitter, Johnny is the host of the podcast The Daily Sports Bet -- a 10 minute or less listen with actionable insights and no fluff or BS. Starting the podcast in June, he closed out 2021 up 26 units with a winning percentage of 55%.