Valero Texas Open Odds Preview: Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth Lead the Betting Market

Valero Texas Open Odds Preview: Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth Lead the Market

This event moved to this course at TPC San Antonio in 2010 and has been there ever since. In the final week before the Masters, there’s a lot to be excited about and as we wonder what the motivations are for the players this week, ahead of their visit to Augusta, we do know that Jordan Spieth is defending his title, as he continued his good form going into the Masters last year, by winning on one of his favorite courses here.

How To Watch The Valero Texas Open

• Thursday-Friday: 4 p.m.-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
• Saturday: 1 p.m.-3:30 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3:30 p.m.-6 p.m (NBC)
• Sunday: 1 p.m.-2 p.m. (Golf Channel), 2 p.m.-6 p.m. (NBC)

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Qualifying criteria for the Valero Texas Open

• Major Winner (5-Year Exemption)
• WGC Winner (3-Year Exemption)
• PGA Tournament Winner (2-Year Exemption)
• Career Money Exemption
• Sponsor’s Exemptions
• Former Valero Texas Open Winner
• PGA Section Champion/Player of the Year
• Top-125 in FedEx Cup (Previous Season)
• Major Medical Extension 
• Korn Ferry Tour Points Winner (The 25 and Finals 25)
• Three-time Korn Ferry Tour Winner (one season)
• Korn Ferry Tour Graduates (via reshuffle)
• 126-150 on the previous season’s FedEx Cup (reshuffle)

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Last Year

Last year, two Valero Texas Open stalwarts, Jordan Spieth and Charley Hoffman finished 1-2 at Texas’ home open, with the former coming out on top.

England’s, Matt Wallace was also a feature, as he went into the final day tied with Spieth, but the Texan separated himself on the front-nine, with early birdies on the par-5 2nd and par-3 3rd.

Hoffman’s performance was pretty remarkable after he started with a round of 75 on Thursday, and had to shoot 66-65-66 to climb the leaderboard over the rest of the week, to get into 2nd.

Matt Wallace didn’t play terribly when he had the chance to win, posting a final-round 70, but Spieth’s 66 was just too good for him to hang with in the end.

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Event Trends

In 2013, this event was moved to the week before the Masters for the first time, and Martin Laird won this event and parlayed that into a Masters invite. 2019 was the next time this event preceded the Masters and once again a player turned this win into the final Masters invite, as Corey Conners became the first player to Monday Qualify and win on the PGA Tour since 2010, and he got a Masters invite.

To follow on from this, Oddschecker colleague, Andy Lack has noted on his Inside Golf Podcast, that 7 of the last 9 events played the week before the Masters have been won by a player who was not in the Masters field.

Of the last 10 winners, 5 were winning a PGA Tour event for the first time.

Each of the last 8 winners here has played here at least once before, and made the cut on their most recent visit.

Incoming Form (2022)

Here are the top-10 players in adjusted scoring average in terms of current form since the start of 2022.

• Rory McIlroy - 12-3-10-13-33
• Hideki Matsuyma - 13-1-30-8-39-20
• Keegan Bradley - 12-65-26-48-11-5-MC-35 (Match Play)
• Chris Kirk - 27-MC-MC-14-7-5-MC
• Adam Hadwin - 25-MC-16-26-MC-9-7
• Gary Woodland - MC-39-MC-5-5-MC-21
• Parton Kizzire - 42-22-MC-10-61-32-22-33
• Corey Conners - 11-MC-MC-38-MC-11-26-3 (Match Play)
• Russell Knox - 7-MC-33-33-33-55-6-57
• Taylor Pendrith - MC-MC-16-49-MC-25-42-13

Past Champions (Since Moving here in 2010)

• 2021 - Jordan Spieth (-18) - 2-stroke victory
• 2019 - Corey Conners (-20) - 2-stroke victory
• 2018 - Andrew Landry (-17) - 2-stroke victory
• 2017 - Kevin Chappell (-12) - 1-stroke victory
• 2016 - Charley Hoffman (-12) - 1-stroke victory
• 2015 - Jimmy Walker (-11) - 4-stroke victory
• 2014 - Steven Bowditch (-8) - 1-stroke victory
• 2013 - Martin Laird (-14) - 2-stroke victory
• 2012 - Ben Curtis (-9) - 2-stroke victory
• 2011 - Brendan Steele (-8) - 1-stroke victory
• 2010 - Adam Scott (-14) - 1-stroke victory

The Favorites

Rory McIlroy (+750) (Bet $100 to Win $750)

Rory McIlroy is one-and-done on this golf course, finishing 2nd to Martin Laird back in 2013, and it’s intriguing to see what his motives are this week.

It sounds strange to question whether a player of any caliber, let alone Rory’s has any plans other than to win, but sometimes players are just looking for a fine-tuning session, in a competitive setting, before heading to Augusta.

The Northern Irishman could do with a confidence-boosting week, in what is, without doubt, his biggest tournament of the year, at the Masters. We know Rory wants to complete the Grand Slam, and every year it doesn’t happen, the harder it becomes, so he’ll be keen to wrap up soon, on a course he’s had near-misses on in his career.

He obviously proved 9 years ago what he can do on this golf course, but he was #2 in the world at the time, and this year he’s a different breed. He did have a decent 2021 outside of the majors, but he will be keen with all the new kids on the block to stamp his authority once again.

Rory Mcllroy is the current favorite in the odds to win this week's Valero Texas Open. He is one golfer to keep an eye on before wagering on the first major of the season at Augusta”.

Jordan Spieth (+1400) (Bet $100 to Win $1400)

Unlike Rory, Spieth plays here often and has already got the win here, so he will feel comfortable in his home state.

He’s searching for something good right now, as he heads to the Masters which he has dominated in years gone by, and regardless of what he does this week, he will be talk of the town at Augusta.

I wouldn’t read too much into his performance this week, in regards to his chances next week, but he has a good chance of winning here, regardless of form.

Hideki Matsuyama (+1800) (Bet $100 to Win $1800)

Hideki played here for the first time last year, and finished 30th but he opened with a round of 67 to sit 4th going into Friday.

Matsuyama’s 2022 has been marred by a neck injury so far, but when he has teed it up for the week, he has played decently and not many can hang with the form he’s shown since winning the Masters a year ago.

He’s won twice more since winning the Masters last year, and if he’s fit again he could find himself in contention on Sunday, although I would hazard a guess that this week is to check his fitness more than anything else.

Should he feel any hint of an issue I could see him pulling out early, to give himself the best chance of defending his title at Augusta, so keep that in mind.

Corey Conners (+1800) (Bet $100 to Win $1800)

Conners had a deep run at the Match Play last week, getting to the semi-final where he lost to Kevin Kisner, before beating Dustin Johnson handily in the 3rd/4th place playoff on Sunday.

How that will affect his week here remains to be seen, but Conners’ course form here reads 26-1-14, so he’ll be looking for another good week as he heads to Augusta where he’s played well before.

Abraham Ancer (+2200) (Bet $100 to Win $2200)

Abraham Ancer found some form at the right time last week at the Match Play, after a lackluster start to this new season.

I wouldn’t get too excited about last week, given the format and golf course and instead we need to look at Ancer’s body of work as a whole, as it relates to this event.

Ancer has made 4 out of 4 cuts here, but last year’s 23rd was his best effort by a margin, and he was never at the top-end of the leaderboard during the week.

Given his lack of strokeplay form, the look ahead at the Masters, and his lack of course form, I would say Ancer’s odds are on the short side, even considering the field, his Texas ties, and his decent effort last week.

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Early Leans

Chris Kirk (+5500) (Bet $100 to Win $5500)

I am going to go with players not in the Masters this week, as they’re doubly motivated to both win a tournament and qualify for the Masters and Chris Kirk, as a Georgia resident might be even more motivated than many.

Kirk has been finding his way back to his best since the pandemic and coming out openly with struggles in his personal life, and he looks ready to breakthrough with another victory.

Since winning on the Korn Ferry Tour in June 2020, Kirk had a decent year in 2021, finishing runner-up at the Sony Open, 8th at Bay Hill, 6th here, and 7th at the Heritage. More recently, in 2022, Kirk has finished 14th in Phoenix, 7th at the Honda, and 5th at Bay Hill. He missed the cut last time out at Sawgrass but that’s doesn’t phase me.

He now returns to a course where he’s finished inside the top-8 three times and has another top-13 finish. He ranked 18th, 20th, and 6th in Tee-to-Green in those three most recent made cuts and now returns to a part of the country he’s had success in, in the past, including a win at Colonial, a 2nd in Houston, and those three top-8’s on this course.

Davis Riley (+6500) (Bet $100 to Win $6500)

So close to victory last time out at the Valspar, Davis Riley will be keen to keep the momentum going in Texas, which he calls home.

He lost out to Sam Burns in that Valspar playoff, but that’s no disgrace given Burns’ sharp ascent to the top of the world rankings over the past year, and Riley’s maiden status.

Riley, as mentioned in the course preview, has already won on this course, albeit in a Korn Ferry Tour event, and he’ll now look to make his PGA Tour breakthrough in familiar surroundings.

He was 20th at the Sony Open earlier this year and that event has been a good indicator to success here in the past, so that’s just an added bonus.

I might be overvaluing one good finish, but with the previous on this course and his close shave last time out, I’ll give him a chance to prove his worth at this level.

Patton Kizzire (+6600) (Bet $100 to Win $6600)

Patton Kizzire has been in solid form this season, particularly since the turn of the year, and after a slow start on his course debut here 12 months ago, Kizzire hit a final-round 65 to finish T9 and he’ll hope for more of the same this week.

Kizzire’s last five starts read T10-T61-T32-T22-T33, but those have all come in better company and the T22 at the PLAYERS from the wrong side of the draw is a good sign.

His ball-striking has been good through this run, and with Sony Open (correlation) and Mayakoba (designer link) wins to his name, he looks likely to be a good fit this week.

Kizzire has finished T3 at Colonial and the Byron Nelson in the past giving him Texas form, and on his Masters debut in 2019 he managed to finish T18 there, so he’ll be keen to get back.

Like Kirk and Riley before him, Kizzire needs a win this week to get into the Masters, so he fits the trends nicely.

Brendan Steele (+10000) (Bet $100 to Win $10000)

Steele is another looking for a win this week for a late Masters invite, and while there’s a bunch of guys at the top of the market looking to spoil their party, I like this group to make a run at that final spot.

Steele in my opinion represents really good value given his course, correlative and current form. Steele has won on this golf course (2011), and has 4th and 8th place finishes to back that up, and he’s also 2nd and 4th at the Sony Open, which we like as a correlative course .

His last two starts have yielded finishes of T26 and T13, with the latter coming at TPC Sawgrass. Steele also bogeyed his final two holes at Sawgrass to cost him a T6 finish there, so he’s really in good shape.

Steele has ranked 4th and 5th in his last two starts in Tee-to-Green, is in great form, and returns to a course he’s won on before, so it looks on paper like the perfect recipe for success.

Kevin Chappell (+20000) (Bet $100 to Win $20000)

At 200/1, I couldn’t resist a small wager on Kevin Chappell, who’s made half his cuts this year and while he’s yet to put four rounds together consistently, he’s shown enough life to give him a chance here.

Chappell finished 15th last week, albeit in a weak Corales field, but I think he can keep the momentum going this week, on a course where he’s won, finished 2nd, and also has finishes of 4th and 15th.

These finishes are a long time ago now, but at the odds, in a field where there are some weak players, along with some that have other priorities, I’ll take the guy with the course history, and everything to play for.

Valero Texas Open Odds

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The Field

• Ludvig Aberg
• Abraham Ancer
• Paul Barjon
• Jonas Blixt
• Keegan Bradley
• Joseph Bramlett
• Ryan Brehm
• Hayden Buckley
• Bronson Burgoon
• Cameron Champ
• Kevin Chappell
• Wyndham Clark
• Corey Conners
• Austin Cook
• Jason Day
• Bryson DeChambeau
• Luke Donald
• Tyler Duncan
• Tony Finau
• Rickie Fowler
• Dylan Frittelli
• Brice Garnett
• Doug Ghim
• Michael Gligic
• Lucas Glover
• Branden Grace
• Lanto Griffin
• Bill Haas
• Chesson Hadley
• Adam Hadwin
• Brandon Hagy
• James Hahn
• Nick Hardy
• Jim Herman
• Kramer Hickok
• Garrick Higgo
• Harry Higgs
• Lee Hodges
• Charley Hoffman
• Beau Hossler
• Charles Howell III
• John Huh
• Stephan Jaeger
• Zach Johnson
• Matt Jones
• Takumi Kanaya
• Sung Kang
• Ben Kern
• Si Woo Kim
• Chris Kirk
• Patton Kizzire
• Russell Knox
• Ben Kohles
• Kelly Kraft
• Matt Kuchar
• Anirban Lahiri
• Martin Laird
• Andrew Landry
• Nate Lashley
• Hank Lebioda
• Danny Lee
• K.H. Lee
• Min Woo Lee
• David Lipsky
• Luke List
• Adam Long
• Justin Lower
• Robert MacIntyre
• Peter Malnati
• Hideki Matsuyama
• Logan McAllister
• Denny McCarthy
• Graeme McDowell
• William McGirt
• Max McGreevy
• Rory McIlroy
• Maverick McNealy
• Troy Merritt
• Guido Migliozzi
• Taylor Moore
• Trey Mullinax
• Matthew NeSmith
• Seung-Yul Noh
• Henrik Norlander
• Andrew Novak
• Ryan Palmer
• C.T. Pan
• Mito Pereira
• Pat Perez
• J.T. Poston
• Ian Poulter
• Andrew Putnam
• Aaron Rai
• Chad Ramey
• Chez Reavie
• Doc Redman
• Seth Reeves
• Davis Riley
• Patrick Rodgers
• Sam Ryder
• Adam Schenk
• Matthias Schwab
• Greyson Sigg
• David Skinns
• Roger Sloan
• Alex Smalley
• Austin Smotherman
• Brandt Snedeker
• J.J. Spaun
• Jordan Spieth
• Scott Stallings
• Kyle Stanley
• Brendan Steele
• Henrik Stenson
• Robert Streb
• Kevin Streelman
• Brian Stuard
• Adam Svensson
• Hudson Swafford
• Nick Taylor
• Sahith Theegala
• Curtis Thompson
• Brendon Todd
• Martin Trainer
• Kevin Tway
• Dawie van der Walt
• Jhonattan Vegas
• Camilo Villegas
• Jimmy Walker
• Matt Wallace
• Nick Watney
• Richy Werenski
• Lee Westwood
• Vince Whaley
• Gary Woodland
• Dylan Wu