Valero Texas Open Betting Preview: Course Preview, Past Winners, and Predictions
Valero Texas Open Betting Preview: Course Preview, Past Winners, and Predictions
Only one week remains between now and the 2022 Masters, as the Tour stays in Texas making the short trip from Austin to San Antonio. This event also marks the last week where the winner of the event will get an automatic bid for the following week at Augusta National.
The importance of the automatic bid was on full display in 2019, where Corey Conners qualified for this event on Monday, only to win the event and qualify for the 2019 Masters. A few elites in Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth will be on this week to try and stop a newcomer from winning, however.
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Past Winners of Valero Texas Open
- 2021: Jordan Spieth
- 2020: N/A
- 2019: Corey Conners
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Course Preview: TPC San Antonio - AT&T Oaks Course
Coming in as a Par 72 and 7,494 yards, TPC San Antonio is slightly longer than the Tour average and from recent results, slightly harder in a handful of areas. Often consumed by wind, the fairways are lined with trees and on average result in a Driving Accuracy 6% lower than the Tour Average.
Greens in regulation are also lower (7%) than the Tour average, as the greens are smaller than many other courses these guys see each week. With the standard four Par 5s, TPC San Antonio does boat two that are over 600 yards which have led to some of the lowest birdie rates on Tour each and every year.
Widely considered the toughest of the courses on the Texas swing, the guys will have their work cut out for them this week. While you might want to consider guys yet to qualify for Augusta this week, those who can navigate TPC San Antonio are few and far between.
Relevant Betting Course Metrics
- SG: Driving Accuracy
- SG: Approach
- SG: High Winds
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Outright Picks
Corey Conners (+1800) (Bet $100 to Win $1800)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
Speaking of Conners, I think he has a real shot to repeat his 2019 performance heading into this year’s edition. Since 2016 at this event, Conners ranks #2 in the field in strokes gained, and in addition to his win has a T26 and T14 in his three total starts.
His recent form has also been something to behold. Coming into this week, Conners is coming off a third-place finish at last week’s WGC Match Play event, one of the most stacked fields of the season. Prior to that, Conners had made three of his previous four cuts, with two top 30 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship.
He also comes into this event #3 on tour in Greens in Regulation percentage (74.13%), and #7 in SG: Off-The-Tee at .664. One of the best ball strikers on Tour as of late at +3 in those two events prior to WGC, Conners is clicking on all cylinders heading back to a course he knows well.
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Abraham Ancer (+2200) (Bet $100 to Win $2200)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
Currently #11 on Tour in driving accuracy, Ancer controls his drives with the best of them on Tour and appeared to get some momentum going last week following what has been a slow start to 2021-22. Even still, Ancer has missed just three cuts in his 12 starts so far to start the season, finishing T30 or better in four events with bad rounds here and there sinking his final positioning.
In his four starts here at TPC San Antonio, Ancer has made all four cuts with an adjusted stroke gained of +.34. Finishing T26 here last year, Ancer overcame a Thursday/Friday 72/73 to shoot a 69/70 over the weekend finishing -4 on the week. The year prior it was a Sunday 73 which sunk his top 20 chances, finishing T42. If Ancer can start well this week, his experience at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio should put him directly into contention come Sunday.
Also, Ancer is a local to the San Antonio area, which should make for an easier week than most as travel will be out of the equation. With Augusta just a week away, I expect a renewed sense of focus from one of the most naturally talented guys in this week’s field.
Johnny has been covering the sports betting markets and handicapping games for the better part of the past decade. Along the way, he has written for publications such as All-In Magazine, Blitz Predict, FantasyPros, Betting Pros, Sportsbook Review, and most recently, OddsChecker. In addition to giving out picks on Twitter, Johnny is the host of the podcast The Daily Sports Bet -- a 10 minute or less listen with actionable insights and no fluff or BS. Starting the podcast in June, he closed out 2021 up 26 units with a winning percentage of 55%.