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PGA Power Rankings: Top 5 for Waste Management Phoenix Open

The PGA Tour finally departs from California and heads to the Desert at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, Arizona. PGA handicapper Matt MacKay is here with his power rankings ahead of Thursday's opening round.
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PGA Power Rankings: Top 5 for Waste Management Phoenix Open

The Waste Management Phoenix Open has returned! It was a thrilling finish during last year's event, with Scottie Scheffler beginning his dominant season with a three-hole sudden-death playoff win over Patrick Cantlay, while Sam Ryder and Carlos Ortiz both drained hole-in-one shots on the iconic 16th hole par 3, sending the crowd into a frenzy.

Phoenix is also hosting Super Bowl LVII in nearby State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, so there will be a lot of sports entertainment events occurring in Arizona's desert this weekend. The Waste Management Phoenix Open has a packed field, including the 2023 debut of Rory McIlroy, defending champion Scottie Scheffler, and 134 other talented professionals, making it a vastly different competition than the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The winning scorecard in each of the previous six WMPO events has fluctuated between -16 and -19-under-par, which means viewers will be in store for quite a few birdies throughout the weekend.

Jon Rahm returns as the betting favorite at +650 for the 2023 WMPO outright winner, followed by McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Scheffler, and Max Homa to round out the top-five heading into Thursday's opening round. Here are our picks, predictions, and odds in the form of power rankings ahead of the opening tee times from TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, Arizona.

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Waste Management Phoenix Open Time and Where to Watch

  • Date - Thursday, February 9th - Sunday, February 12th, 2023
  • Opening Tee Time - 9:15 a.m. ET - 3 p.m. ET
  • Where - TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course), Scottsdale, Arizona
  • Where to Watch - ESPN+, Golf Channel, CBS

Waste Management Phoenix Open Odds

PlayerOdds to Win Outright
Jon Rahm+650
Rory McIlroy+800
Xander Schauffele+1100
Scottie Scheffler+1100
Max Homa+1600
Justin Thomas+1600
Patrick Cantlay+1800
Matt Fitzpatrick+2200
Tony Finau+2500
Collin Morikawa+2500

Click here for Waste Management Phoenix Open odds

Waste Management Phoenix Open Course

TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 track that runs 7,261 yards. Players will finally get a break from the multi-course rotation that has been the status quo in consecutive previous events. The course opened up in 1986 and underwent renovation in 2014. The fairways and greens are both comprised of TiffDwarf grass, while the limited tree hazards are countered with water hazards on a third of the 18 holes at TPC Scottsdale.

The fairways are over-seeded, creating optimal surfaces for players to hit off of, but a rainy winter could keep some of the surfaces under-seeded in comparison to past events. Adding the mountains in the background creates a stunning visual for players and fans alike. Since the altitude hovers above 1,500 feet, drives, tee shots, and approach shots all will fly a bit further this weekend. Of course, sand bunkers will be a common hazard flanking fairways and greens to punish errant shots.

Waste Management Phoenix Open Power Rankings

1. Jon Rahm (+650) Bet $100 to collect $750 Caesars has the best odds, click here to bet

Jon Rahm is the betting favorite for the fourth time in his previous four PGA Tour events, getting +650 odds to win outright. Rahm attended Arizona State University for his collegiate golf career, so he's familiar with the course and the conditions players will be dealing with in Scottsdale. Rahm has logged previous finishes of T10, T13, T9, and T10 at the WMPO event, so he'll be looking to crack the top five in a star-studded event. Rahm had an opportunity to win The American Express after the first three rounds in his last event, but he imploded with a +2 round on Sunday, so he'll have plenty of motivation to return to form and dominate as the betting favorite this weekend.

2. Rory McIlroy (+800) Bet $100 to collect $900 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

The 2022 FedExCup champion, Rory McIlroy, hasn't been playing the PGA Tour since winning his only previous event at the CJ Cup in South Carolina back in October. He's the only other player in the WMPO with higher than 10/1 odds, so oddsmakers expect McIlroy to have his irons dialed in and putter red-hot as he returns to the Desert. The 33-year-old Irishman didn't compete in this event in 2022 but did log a T13 finish in 2021. McIlroy hasn't competed at this event much in his career recently, so he'll view it as a welcome challenge with the Tour's best players in a standard one-course, two-round cut format.

3. Scottie Scheffler (+1100) Bet $100 to collect $1,200 Caesars has the best odds, click here to bet

The epic start to Scottie Scheffler's 2022 PGA season started with his win over Patrick Cantlay at TPC Scottsdale, where the 26-year-old Texas native earned his first of four outright wins. Scheffler went nine-under-par in the third round while edging out Cantlay in a three-hole playoff by sinking a birdie putt on the 18th hole. He has competed in five events and earned three T10 finishes this season, logging a T7 finish at Sentry and a T11 finish at The American Express while making the cut in all five events. He is ranked 27th in total strokes gained, including fourth in strokes gained off-the-tee, while ranking seventh in greens in regulation, converting over 76.3 percent of his attempts. At a course where he's defending his title, expect Scheffler to utilize his week of rest and stay near the top of the leaderboard to attempt being the first back-to-back winner at the WMPO since Hideki Matsuyama rattled off consecutive wins in 2016 and 2017.

4. Hideki Matsuyama (+2800) Bet $100 to collect $2,900 FanDuel has the best odds, click here to bet

It's been a tougher season for Hideki Matsuyama compared to previous years on the PGA Tour. The Japanese native has only cracked one T10 in eight events this season, but he's made all seven cuts, which is encouraging. Matsuyama won at the WMPO in 2016 and 2017, one of only a couple of players to achieve this feat, so he'll feel very comfortable at a course that rewards ball striking and sharp irons. Matsuyama is ranked eighth in strokes gained around the green and averaging over 4.1 birdies per round while saving 65 percent of his bunker shots. The good news is that Matsuyama finally hit a T9 finish in his last event at the Farmers Insurance Open, so he's rounding into form at the perfect time. Laying an outright bet at 28/1 odds is highly appealing, considering how well Matsuyama has played at this event.

5. Tom Kim (+2800) Bet $100 to collect $2,900 FanDuel has the best odds, click here to bet

The PGA Tour was taken by storm with Tom Kim's elite performances down the stretch in 2022. The 20-year-old native of South Korea hasn't competed in the past two events, so he should be well-rested after logging a T6 finish at The American Express. Kim has three T10 finishes in six events, but he had a shocking missed cut at the Sony Open due to a slow start. Kim has few flaws in his game, whether it's being ranked fourth in driver accuracy, converting 77 percent of his greens in regulation, and five birdies per round. It will be Kim's debut at TPC Scottsdale but it's a course built for his skill set. Take advantage of the 28/1 odds and pounce on his outright value ahead of Thursday's opening tee times.

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Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.


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