World Cup Qualifying Odds: Mexico Favored To Get Huge Win Against USA

Mexico and the United States are on the edge in World Cup qualifying, with neither being able to afford a loss ahead of their March 24th matchup. Oddsmakers expect the Americans to be the team that comes up short.
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World Cup Qualifying Odds: Mexico Favored To Get Huge Win Against USA

Mexico and the United States are on the edge in World Cup qualifying, with neither being able to afford a loss ahead of their March 24th matchup. Oddsmakers expect the Americans to be the team that comes up short.

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El Tri are given +110 odds, or an implied 47.6% chance of victory. Meanwhile, the USA is given +260 odds, or an implied 27.8% chance of victory. Oddsmakers believe a draw, +225 or an implied 30.8% chance, is more likely than an American victory.

Yet despite backing Mexico, oddsmakers believe the most likely score at the end of the game will be 1-1. They give the 1-1 draw, +550 odds, or an implied 15.4% chance of being the correct score. The most likely score in a Mexican win is 1-0, given +600 odds or an implied 14.3% chance. The most likely score for an American victory is 1-0, given +950 or an implied 9.5% chance.

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Mexico’s home record is pristine. They haven’t lost a game on home soil, since a 2018 1-0 loss to Chile. They haven’t lost to a CONCACAF opponent at home since losing 2-1 to Honduras in 2013. The US hasn’t won in Mexico since 2012. It’s honestly a surprise El Tri aren’t bigger favorites than they are. Despite their 2-0 loss to the US in America earlier this year, Mexico is still without a doubt the favorite in this one, and historical precedent shows why.

Mexico vs USA World Cup Qualifying Odds

ResultOddsImplied chance
Mexico wins+11047.6%
Draw+22530.8%
America wins+26027.8%

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insight

A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.

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