European Super League: 63.8% Chance That The Super League Begins Before 2024
The Super League was announced on Sunday and sent the soccer world into complete meltdown. Announced to nearly absolute outrage, The Super League is a collection of 15 clubs who have formed a new league to compete with the UEFA Champions League.
What is the European Super League?
So far just 12 of the founding 15 clubs have been announced. Those teams are Man City, Man Utd, Spurs, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal from the Premier League. AC Milan, Inter Milan and Juventus from Italy's Serie A, in addition to Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid representing La Liga. Another 3 teams will be announced soon, and then a further 5 slots will be available going forward, with those teams invited each year based on 'merit'.
This is a historic cash grab and one which has upset the sporting world. It's a model which is facing huge criticism beause it kills competition and lacks the sporting integrtity of every other soccer competition in the world. The 15 founding clubs would be ringfenced and unable to miss out on the competition, similar to how teams in the NFL and NBA cannot be relegated.
Those who are against it, which seems like everyone, believes that this is a case of the rich getting richer, and the final nail in the coffin of the most popular sport across the globe.
The governing bodies of the sport, in addition to politicians and governements, have all been very critical and there are threats to halt the competition from taking place. With teams potentially unable to play in their domestic leagues, and the players unable to play for their countries in the World Cup.
Will The Super League happen?
One British sportsbook, BetVictor, has priced up a market on whether The Super League will begin before the end of 2023. Yes is priced at 4/7 (-175) which implies a 63.6% chance that we see the league begin play before the close of '23.
If you don't think it will happen, and that it's a bargaining chip to force more changes to the Champions League, then you can wager no at odds of 5/4 (+125) which implies a 44.4% chance that it won't happen.