The Oscars 2020: The Latest From The Betting Markets
With betting currently underway for the Oscars, what is the favourite to win Best Picture? Well, the bookmakers’ favorite is Sam Mendes’ 1917. The World War One epic is the runaway favourite at the top of the market, currently priced at -175.
The most prestigious markets are currently dominated by favorites, but, what is going on in some of the lesser-known markets.
While three of the major categories seem like they’re pretty much done deals, with outlandishly short odds, there is definitely still value to be found.
In case you were wondering about the three major categories however - here are the favorites.
Undoubtedly the most popular betting category for the Oscars, the Best Picture category has swayed from side to side for the favorite, as punters have been divided over who they see taking home the Oscar this year.
1917 is the current market leader and it seems unlikely to move from top spot in the coming days. Now available at -175, the World War One action/drama which was released in the United States on December 25th, could have been found at +650 on that day. However, it has almost continuously shortened in price since then.
Parasite has collected 18% of bets in this market by bettors who may be hunting for value. The highest-rated of the bookies three top films on IMDb Bong Joon-ho’s Korean language drama/mystery thrilled viewers. Even achieving a 99% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and a 5/5 by Empire.
Now available at +400 with one bookie, Parasite can be found as short as -200. That’s a $70 difference off a $20 stake.
Once Upon A Time in Hollywood has collected a respectable 14% of all bets in this market and can now be found at +900. Punters who jumped on Quintin Tarantino’s flick early will be disappointed by this news as when the nominations were announced the comedy-drama’s odds were cut from +200 to +120.
Joker: +1200Jojo Rabbit: +8000
The Irishman: +8000Marriage Story: +10000Little Woman: +15000Ford v Ferrari: +25000
It’s hard to argue against Sam Mendes picking up the Best Director merit this year. After his nomination, you could have backed him at -120, but now available at a best price of -500 and collecting 43% of bets. Books and bettors alike seem to think it’s a done deal.
23% of gamblers have backed Bong Joon-ho since the market opened. Now as high as +600 to win the Oscar he can also be found as short as +275 for his direction of Parasite.
Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon A Time In Hollywood: +2000Martin Scorsese for The Irishman: +6600Todd Phillips for Joker: +10000
Joaquin Phoenix has picked up 71% of bets in the category and has already won the Golden Globe and BAFTA for his role in Joker.
Arguably the best portrayal of the iconic villain since Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight, Phoenix has little competition in the market with the best available price being -2000 giving him a 95% implied probability of winning.
Adam Driver in Marriage Story: +1000Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: +5000Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes: +5000Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory: +6600
Renee Zellweger can be found at a best price of -1600 and is the most popular bet in this market for her portal of Judy Garland in Judy collecting 45% of bets.
Having already won a Golden Globe and BAFTA for the role it’s understandable why she would be the favourite in the market.
Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story: +1600Cynthia Erivo in Harriet: +2900Saoirse Ronan in little woman: +3300Charlize Theron in Bombshell: +5000
Best Animated Feature Film
Bettors are backing Netflix’s Klaus as a major competitor in this category. Attracting 49% of all bets and currently at a best price of evens. For a Christmas film to win an Oscar is often unlikely but not unheard of, is this where value lies?
Toy Story 4 was the favorite with bookies in this market. Now available at the best price of +100, however, the fourth installation of the Pixar classic has attracted 30% of bets since the market opened.
Elsewhere in the marketMissing link: +2000I Lost My Body: +3700How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World: +10000
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jojo Rabbit is the market leader in this category, currently at best odds of -167. The Comedy/Drama adapted from Christine Leunen’s book Caging Skies was well liked by critics achieving -125 on IMDb and 80% on rotten tomatoes and no doubt featured an impressive performance from Roman Griffin in his portrayal of Jojo Betzler.
However value hunting punters may have found something bookies failed to notice. Little Woman is currently available at a best price of +200 and has attracted almost 45% of all bets since the market opened.
Greta Gerwig’s Period drama based on Louisa May Alcott’s novel of the same name impressed audiences. Although only achieving 8.1/10 on IMDb the picture was rated 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and 91% on Metacritic.
Elsewhere in the marketThe Irishman: +850Joker: +6600The Two Popes: +7000
Best Original ScreenplayPunters are split on who they believe the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay, But bookies are certainly not.
Parasite is the bookies favourite to win the accolade available at a best price of -143. The Korean Language drama is met with tough competition in Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
Available at a best price of +250, Tarantino was winner the of both Best Director, Motion Picture, Best Motion Picture, Musical and Comedy at the Golden Globes for the picture which has attracted 38% of bets since the market opened.
Elsewhere in the market
Marriage Story: +1200
Knives Out: +6000
Best Supporting Actress
The Best supporting actress looks mostly dead a buried with punters and bookies alike backing Laura Dern for her role in Marriage Story at -1250.
Little Woman’s Florence Pugh has attracted a respectable 19% of value hunting bettors however. Available at +1700 this is the first time Pugh has been nominated for an Academy Award.
Elsewhere in the marketMargot Robbie: +1600Scarlett Johansson: +3300Kathy Bates: +6600
Best Supporting ActorHaving already won a Golden Globe, BAFTA, AACTA and countless more accolades for his supporting role in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood it should be of no surprise that Brad Pitt is the front runner in this category.
At best odds of -2000 he’s attracted the large majority (62%) of bettor in this category.
Elsewhere in the marketJoe Pesci: +1600Al Pacino: +3500Tom Hanks: +3700Anthony Hopkins: +6000