Donald Trump’s Impeachment Odds: Bookmakers Cut Odds on Donald Trump Not Serving His First Term in Full

UK oddsmakers have slashed the price of President Trump finishing his first term in the White House
Sam Eaton
Wed, January 13, 4:30 AM EST

Donald Trump’s Impeachment Odds

The odds on Donald Trump being impeached

Today will rank among the most defining moments in American political history, as the House of Representatives votes to impeach Donald Trump in connection with his supporters’ siege on the US Capitol. A move which would make him the first President to be impeached twice.

With only days left until Joe Biden is sworn in as the 46th US President, there are many skeptical if Donald Trump will be removed from his position. However, one UK bookmaker has cut the odds on Donald Trump not serving his full term in the White House.

As the end of 2020, online bookmakers only gave Donald Trump a 3% chance of not serving his first term as President of the United States in full, however, the odds now imply there’s a 20% chance of this happening.

Just over 77% of bets this week have been placed on Donald Trump not serving his full term.

Donald Trump Impeachment Odds: Will Donald Trump Serve His First Term As President Of The United States In Full

Will Donald Trump Serve His First Term As President Of The United States In Full ? US Odds Implied % Chance % of bets this week
Yes -714 87.7% 23%
No +500 20% 77%

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House Votes For Trump Impeachment

Online bookmakers think there’s a 43.5% chance that 245 or more members of the US House of Representatives will vote in favor of impeaching Donald Trump by January 15, 2021.

If the majority of the House’s 435 members approve bringing charges against Trump, the process moves to the Senate, the upper chamber, which holds a trial.

How many members of the US House Of Representatives will vote in favor of impeaching Donald Trump by 15 January 2021?

Number of House Votes In Favor of Impeachment US Odds Implied % Chance
Fewer than 225 +1500 6.3%
225-229 +900 10%
230-239 +420 19.2%
240-244 +520 16.1%
245 or more +130 43.5%

2024 US Election Odds: Donald Trump’s Odds For The 2024 Election

Donald Trump is currently the third favorite to win the 2024 election, behind Kamala Harris and Joe Biden. However, his chances of winning the 2024 election have drifted from 11.1% to 8.3% in the last week.

In the last 48-hours, just over 36% of bets in the 2024 US Presidential Election odds market have been on Trump winning. Mike Pence has been the second most backed candidate with 18% of all bets in the market.

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2024 US Presidential Election Betting Market

Candidate UK Odds US Odds Implied % Chance % of Bets (48 Hours)
Kamala Harris 5/1 +500 16.7% 4%
Joe Biden 32/5 +640 13.5% 8%
Donald Trump 11/1 +1100 8.3% 36%
Nikki Haley 16/1 +1600 5.9% 6%
Mike Pence 16/1 +1600 5.9% 18%
Ivanka Trump 25/1 +2500 3.8% 3%

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