2024 Election Odds: Kamala Harris the Favorite to Win 2024 Election
On Wednesday, Joe Biden was officially sworn in as President of the United States of America by Chief Justice John Roberts. It marked the official end to President Donald Trump’s term in the White House and signaled the changing of the guard as a new regime takes over.
Still, just a few hours into the 46th President’s first term, there are already bettors looking toward the future. More specifically, they’re looking toward the 2024 US Presidential Election and trying to figure out if there is a candidate they should be betting.
So who are the bettors focusing on? Who is the favorite to call the White House their home starting in 2025? It may surprise you to hear that the current President of the United States is not the favorite, but rather his running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris.
2024 Election Betting
As of Inauguration Day, Vice President Kamala Harris is officially the favorite to become POTUS during the next election cycle. According to UK oddsmakers, Harris’ odds currently sit at +400, odds which imply a 20% chance she becomes the head of the Executive Branch.
Behind Harris is her running mate, President Joe Biden, whose odds are at +500 as of Wednesday. Donald Trump is the third favorite at +1100 and his Vice President, Mike Pence, is right behind him at +1600.
The first face on the list that has never held the title of either President or Vice President is that of Nikki Haley. Haley is the former Republican Governor of South Carolina and US Ambassador to the United Nations, and her odds to become president in 2024 are +2000.
| Candidate | UK Odds | US Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | 4/1 | +400 | 20% |
| Joe Biden | 5/1 | +500 | 16.7% |
| Donald Trump | 11/1 | +1100 | 8.3% |
| Mike Pence | 16/1 | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Nikki Haley | 20/1 | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Michael Flynn | 28/1 | +2800 | 3.4% |
| Nina Turner | 29/1 | +2900 | 3.3% |
| Ivanka Trump | 33/1 | +3300 | 2.9% |
| Tucker Carlson | 33/1 | +3300 | 2.9% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 33/1 | +3300 | 2.9% |
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2024 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds
We can, for the most part, guess who will be representing the Democratic Party in the 2024 Election. If Biden, for one reason or another, does not run, it's all but certain that Harris would be the party’s choice. But, who would the Republicans choose?
The favorite, as of Inauguration Day, is former President Donald Trump at +440. Right behind him is Haley, at +700, followed by Pence (+900), Ted Cruz (+1600), Tucker Carlson (+1600) and Ivanka Trump (+1600).
| Candidate | UK Odds | US Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 22/5 | +440 | 18.5% |
| Nikki Haley | 7/1 | +700 | 12.5% |
| Mike Pence | 9/1 | +900 | 10% |
| Ted Cruz | 16/1 | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Tucker Carlson | 16/1 | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Ivanka Trump | 16/1 | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Tom Cotton | 18/1 | +1800 | 5.3% |
| Mike Pompeo | 25/1 | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Josh Hawley | 28/1 | +2800 | 3.4% |
| Dan Crenshaw | 33/1 | +3300 | 2.9% |