Oscars Nominations Are Out And Nomadland And Chadwick Boseman Look Set For Awards
The Oscars nominations have been revealed and it’s the most diverse Oscars ever, with 9 of the 20 acting nominees being from ethnic backgrounds. It’s also the first time that there has ever been multiple women nominated for best director in the same year too.
This year’s ceremony will take place between two venues. The Dolby Theatre, the regular home of the ceremony, and Union Station, LA’s biggest railway hub, and it’ll take place on April 25.
Our very own movie buff Kyle Newman has taken a look at the three biggest markets ahead and studies how the betting has been impacted by the nominations announcement.
Nomadland heavy favorite to win Best Picture
27.3% of all bets placed in the last week on Best Picture have been placed on Nomadland. This despite Nomadland having -275 odds.
Nomadland won the Golden Globe for Best Drama, which is likely a reason for it’s rising hype. However, the Golden Globes and Oscars almost always disagree on Best Picture. Since 2010, only three Best Drama winners at the Golden Globes went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars; Argo, 12 Years a Slave, and Moonlight. The 2020 Best Picture winner, Parasite, wasn’t even nominated for Best Drama at the Golden Globes.
This year, three such movies have been nominated. Minari, Sound of Metal, and Judas and the Black Messiah have all been nominated for Best Picture, none of which were nominated for Best Drama, Comedy, or Musical.
Nomadland may be the heavy favorite right now, but I don’t believe it will win Best Picture. The movie to keep an eye on is Minari. The film about growing up Asian in America is especially poignant during the time of COVID-19.
It’s seen a surge in bets, as over the last week 11.7% of all bets have been placed on Minari. It’s also surged up to 3rd in odds at +1100. Like Parasite last year, Minari could be the shock winner.”
|Best Picture Nominees||Odds|
|Trial of the Chicago 7||+400|
|Promising Young Woman||+1400|
|Judas and the Black Messiah||+2000|
|Sound of Metal||Not Listed|
Chadwick Boseman is favorite to win Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman tragically lost his battle to cancer in 2020. However, before passing he completed the filming of two phenomenal movies. He’s been nominated for Best Actor for his performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
Over the last week, 25% of all bets on the Best Actor Oscar have been placed on Boseman, making him the overwhelming bettor’s favorite. His next best challenger is Riz Ahmed from Sound of Metal at 8.3%.
Boseman won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama, likely increasing the bets placed on him. If Bosman were to win he would be only the second posthumous Best Actor winner at the Oscars. The first was Peter Finch in 1976 for his performance in Network.
It’s hard to see anyone other than Boseman winning this award. He’s the heavy favorite for both oddsmakers and bettors. It’s also incredibly hard to imagine the Academy not honoring Boseman in his last chance to win an award.
His career may not have been as long as others, but he’s become a legendary actor and a huge part of film culture for the late 2010s and early 2020s. That doesn’t even mention the fact that his performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom was without a doubt the best of the year. This is one award that shouldn’t even be in question.
|Best Actor Nominees||Odds|
30.8% of bets placed on Andra Day to win Best Actress
The critical reception for Andra Day’s newest movie, The United States Vs. Billie Holliday, was not great. The movie received a 53% on Rotten Tomatoes and is certified Rotten. The one good thing that came out of that movie was the performance of Andra Day.
This was her first lead role as an actress, and she nailed it. Her performance has not only earned her an Oscar Nomination, but she’ one of the favorite to win the award. 30.8% of all bets over the last week on Best Actress winner have been placed on Day.
The other nominees are Viola Davis, Vanessa Kirby, Frances McDormand, and Carey Mulligan. Bettor believe Davis to be Day’ biggest competition as she has seen 23.1% of all bets in the last week.
The Golden Globes are a strong predictor of future Best Actress winners. 3 of the last 5 Golden Globe best Drama Actress winners have gone on to win the Oscar. With that knowledge, Andra Day seems the logical favorite to win the award.
However, it’s Carey Mulligan who’s the heavy oddsmakers favorite. Mulligan’s Promising Young Woman is up for Best Picture, which could give her the edge she needs to win Best Actress.