Oscars Odds Update: Is this Will Smith’s Year?

Will Smith has been nominated for Best Actor for the third time in his career. After falling short his first two times, oddsmakers believe that the third time will be the charm.
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Oscars Odds Update: Is this Will Smith’s Year?

Will Smith has been nominated for Best Actor for the third time in his career. After falling short his first two times, oddsmakers believe that the third time will be the charm.

Smith is given very strong odds to win Best Actor. He’s given -188 odds, or an implied 65.2% chance to take home the Academy Award. A decent improvement over his -121 odds, or implied 63.2% chance prior to nominations.

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His biggest competition is without a doubt Benedict Cumberbatch. The British star is given +400 odds, or an implied 20% chance to win the award. Again, an improvement on his previous +500 odds, or implied 16.7% chance.

All three other nominees saw their odds lengthen. Andrew Garfield moved from +520 to +600, or a change from a 16.1% chance to a 14.3% chance. Denzel Washington went from +2700 to +3300, or a change from a 3.6% chance to a 2.9% chance. Javier Bardem had it the worst though, going from +2000 to +4000. That’s a change from an implied 4.8% chance to a 2.4% chance.  

Smith won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama Motion Picture. That usually locks up the Academy Award. Since 2010, only twice have the Golden Globes and the Oscars not had the same winner. In 2011 when Jean Dujardin won the Oscar, and in 2020 when Anthony Hopkins won it.  So, the oddsmakers have reason to be bullish on Smith’s chances. Still, The Power of the Dog is expected to be a powerhouse this year, so Cumberbatch can’t be counted out.

2022 Oscars Odds

ActorOdds after nomination Odds prior to nomination
Will Smith-188 -121
Benedict Cumberbatch+400 +500
Andrew Garfield+600 +520
Denzel Washington+3300 +2700
Javier Bardem+4000 +2000

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insight

A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.

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