2022 Oscars Odds: Is the Power of the Dog Overrated?

It seems that every year a movie gets nominated for a ton of awards only to be the runner-up in every category. This year, oddsmakers think there’s a very real chance that The Power of the Dog takes over the mantle.
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2022 Oscars Odds: Is the Power of the Dog Overrated?

It seems that every year a movie gets nominated for a ton of awards only to be the runner up in every category. Last year it was The Trial of the Chicago 7, in 2020 it was The Irishman, and in 2019 as Star is Born won 1 award despite 8 nominations. This year, oddsmakers think there’s a very real chance that The Power of the Dog takes over the mantle.

2022 Complete Oscar Odds

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The western is nominated for 11 awards and oddsmakers have them as the favorites to win just 2 awards. The first is Best Director, which seems a lock for Jane Campion. She’s given -2400 odds, or an implied 96% chance to take home the Academy Award. The second is Best Picture, which has become a dog fight. The Power of the Dog is given -110 odds, or an implied 52.4% chance, but CODA is given EVEN odds or a 50% chance.

As things stand, The Power of the Dog would be a historic Best Picture winner. Their futility despite winning Best Picture is something we've only seen one other time this century.

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This is a weird year. Dune is expected to sweep the technical categories, but is given next to no shot to win Best Picture. Meanwhile, the favorite to win Best Picture is only expected to win one other award. If the oddsmakers get this right, then The Power of the Dog would have the least award victories of any Best Picture winner since Spotlight in 2016. In fact, The Power of the Dog would join Spotlight as the only film since 2000 to win Best Picture and only take home 2 awards. Not great if you’re looking for someone to bet on.

The Power of the Dog Oscar Nominations Odds

CategoryOdds and rankImplied chance
Best Picture-110 (1st)52.4%
Best Actor+650 (2nd)13.3%
Best Adapted Screenplay+195 (2nd)33.9%
Best Cinematography+350 (2nd)22.2%
Best Director-2400 (1st)96%
Best Film Editing+350 (3rd)22.2%
Best Original Score+450 (2nd)18.2%
Best Production Design+2700 (5th)3.6%
Best Sound+2200 (4th)4.3%
Best Supporting Actor+380 (2nd)20.8%
Best Supporting Actress+700 (2nd)12.5%

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insight

A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.

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