2020 US Election Odds: Texas Slipping From Joe Biden's Grasp

Hopes that Texas would turn blue appear to be slipping by the day
Samuel Farley
Mon, September 14, 10:05 AM EDT

2020 Texas Election Odds

Texas is said to be one of the key states in this year's election and Joe Biden will be doing everything in his power to try and turn it blue. In recent days, Biden has reportedly looked to hire more staff there in order to ensure that he puts himself in the best positon to win.

Where the echo chamber of social media is claiming that it's close, our exclusive betting data appears to disagree. The odds for Biden to win Texas are now longer than they have been since the market went live in March. Biden had made real progress and in June the race looked neck and neck but now Trump appears to be tightening his grip on the state.

Our data, which comes from bets made in the United Kingdom, shows that the Democrats now have just a 23.10% chance of victory, something which won't please those who are claiming that it's still close. The same data implies that Donald Trump and the Republican Party has an 80% chance of winning Texas, meaning he is now more likely to retain Texas than ever before.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

With three head-to-head debates scheduled before the US Election on 3 November, there is still plenty of time for huge shifts in terms of odds, depending on who comes out on top in the debates. Even before those debates, the first of which is nearly a fortnight away, there is almost daily movement in terms of odds as bettors look to take advantage of every news story which comes out.

It's not been a good month for Joe Biden. On August 4th, Joe Biden’s US Election odds suggested he had a 61.9% chance of winning, now it has slipped to just a 52.4% chance of being victorious. He's still in the lead, as he has been over recent months, but the odds shortening on Donald Trump is something which should concern all Democrats. Trump now has a 47.6% chance of retaining the White House, odds which have increased 2% in the past week.

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US Election Odds

 

UK Odds

US Odds

Implied Probability

Joe Biden

10/11

-110

52.4%

Donald Trump

11/10

+110

47.6%

First Presidential Election Debate Winner

29 September sees the first of the three election debates, this one set in Cleveland, Ohio. Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace will be moderating this debate.

Donald Trump was believed by some to be favorite but when the betting markets came out it was actually Joe Biden who was the shortest price. Interestingly Biden's price has only got shorter over this past week, and his chances of winning the first debate have increased.

At +150 Donald Trump is now seen as a man on the outside, with some bettors wary that moderator Chris Wallace could be problematic for Trump, after his fearsome takedown of the President earlier this summer.

First Presidential Election Debate Odds

 

UK Odds

US Odds

Implied Probability

Joe Biden

1/2

-200

66.7%

Donald Trump

6/4

+150

40.0%

The betting market will be settled on CNN snap poll result.

Betting on the US Election

Betting on the US Election isn’t legal in the US yet despite online sports betting being legal in many states. See which bookmakers you can bet within your state here. All the data we use is from our UK website which has millions of users each month checking odds.

As mentioned, online betting is legal in many states in the US and with the NFL season now upon us, it’s a great time to sign-up to our FREE mailing list to get all the latest betting insight.

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