Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds: Can Anyone Stop Joey Chestnut?

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds and betting preview ahead of this weekend's contest. Can heavy favorite Joey Chestnut be beaten?
Kyle Newman
Thu, July 1, 1:25 PM EDT

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds: Can Anyone Stop Joey Chestnut?

Joey Chestnut seems to outdo himself every year. In fact, he’s set a new world record in 2 of the last 3 Nathan’s hot dog eating contests. Oddsmakers don’t think he’ll set a new record this year, but they do think it’ll be close.

How Many Hot Dogs Will Joey Chestnut Eat?

Oddsmakers have set the Over/Under at 73.5 hot dogs. They give Chestnut -200 odds, or an implied 66.7% chance to go over. He’s +170 or an implied 37% chance to go under. Chestnut’s record, set in 2020, is 75 hot dogs.

Joey Chestnut Total Hot Dogs Odds

Over/Under

Odds

Implied Probability

Over 73.5

-200

66.7%

Under 73.5

+170

37%

Does the Field Stand a Chance?

Of course, oddsmakers don’t expect anyone to get close to him. They give Chestnut -1200 odds, or an implied 92.3% chance to win the event. The rest of the field is given +2000 odds, or an implied 4.8% chance to pull off an upset.

Joey Chestnut is the face of the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. He’s won the event 12 times. So, these odds are exactly as expected. Chestnut is going to continue to be the massive favorite until either he loses again or he retires, whichever comes first.

Nathan’s Hotdog Contest Odds

Eater

Odds

Implied Probability

Joey Chestnut

-1200

92.3%

The Field

+2000

4.8%

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