The Watt Report

How have developments in the 2020 Presidential Election race affected the odds of the favorites?
Pete Watt
Fri, July 5, 10:23 AM EDT

With the first round of Democratic debates behind us, the race to secure the blue ticket looks very different than it did on the eve of the first session on June 26th.

Kamala Harris has moved from the bottom of the leading pack to clear frontrunner following her widely-acclaimed success in the verbal joust with Joe Biden over his historical support for segregationist senators.

In numerical terms, her rise is best illustrated by the fact that her implied probability - based on the odds - of securing the ticket was 11.10% before the debates began. Now, she is the clear favorite with a 26.70% chance, a clear 10% above nearest challenger Biden.

The rest of the favorites have remained relatively stable, with Warren's progress and Sanders' decline both appearing to taper off.

 

However, the former VP shows no signs of throwing in the towel, exemplified by the fiery interview he undertook with CNN today, in which he claims that Trump the 'bully' is the kind of person he would have 'smacked in the mouth' as a younger man.

With that said, 'The Donald' has dealt with significantly more severe accusations in his career than being called a 'bully' and his odds are as unflappable as he is; he remains the overwhelming favorite with a 42.10% chance.of retaining the keys to the White House

 

Trump has also taken aim at various Democrats over the handling of the migrant crisis at the Mexican border, arguing that his 'auld enemy' are doing a better job at managing it than his countrymen.

These comments will further endear Trump to the vehemently patriotic section of his support and increase tensions between the GOP and a Democrat outfit that is being perceived as increasingly left-wing.

Ultimately, it is Trump who very much remains in the driving seat; his odds have not lengthened at all since March 6th and it is looking increasingly likely that the juggernaut will not be stopped. At the moment, it is Kamala Harris who represents the best chance of doing just that.

Let us know what you think on Twitter.

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