Will Donald Trump Be Impeached?
What are the betting odds on Donald Trump being impeached in 2019?
The best price being offered by oddsmakers on the House voting to impeach Trump is -250, indicating an implied probability of 71%. This, in fact, highest chance that Trump has been given this year; Less than a month ago, oddsmakers gave the president odds of +300 - or 25% - for proceedings being brought against him.
However, the chances of impeachment resulting in conviction and due removal from office are considerably longer, at +300 – which is indicative of just a 25% chance.
Has a President been impeached before?
Impeachment proceedings have been brought against two Presidents in the history of the United States; Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton. However, on neither occasion did the Senate vote to remove the President from office by a two-thirds majority. A (dis)honorable mention goes to Richard Nixon who would almost certainly have faced impeachment had he not resigned in the wake of the Watergate scandal.
What would a successful impeachment do to Trump's chances of re-election?
It would obliterate them. Whilst it may be possible for Trump to stand again if he was removed from the White House - an additional process is required to ban an impeached President from running for public office - the reputational stain would surely see his odds lengthen astronomically.
By Pete Watt