Will Donald Trump Be Impeached?

We take a look at the odds on President Donald Trump being impeached in 2019
Pete Watt
Tue, December 10, 4:13 PM

What are the betting odds on Donald Trump being impeached in 2019?

 

The best price being offered by oddsmakers on the House voting to impeach Trump is -250, indicating an implied probability of 71%. This, in fact, highest chance that Trump has been given this year; Less than a month ago, oddsmakers gave the president odds of +300 - or 25% - for proceedings being brought against him.

However, the chances of impeachment resulting in conviction and due removal from office are considerably longer, at +300 – which is indicative of just a 25% chance.

 

Has a President been impeached before?

 

Impeachment proceedings have been brought against two Presidents in the history of the United States; Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton. However, on neither occasion did the Senate vote to remove the President from office by a two-thirds majority. A (dis)honorable mention goes to Richard Nixon who would almost certainly have faced impeachment had he not resigned in the wake of the Watergate scandal.

 

What would a successful impeachment do to Trump's chances of re-election?

 

It would obliterate them. Whilst it may be possible for Trump to stand again if he was removed from the White House - an additional process is required to ban an impeached President from running for public office - the reputational stain would surely see his odds lengthen astronomically.

 

By Pete Watt

 
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