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How Much Does The Performance Of The US Economy Affect Trump’s Odds Of Re-Election?

Taking a look at how the current performance of the US economy has impacted the likelihood of Trump's re-election in 2020
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In just a one-month period, Trump’s likelihood of winning another general election has decreased by over 14%, while Biden’s chances have increased nearly seven-fold

Donald Trump has made it clear that he considers the performance of the US economy under his administration his greatest achievement as president – so clear in fact that CNBC reported in 2018 that, in just under a year in office, he had personally tweeted about the stock market 63 times.

As 2020 has drawn closer, however, the economy hasn’t just been the subject of Trump’s boasts; it has now become the crux of his re-election campaign.

In order to examine this idea in more detail, Oddschecker has compared the performance of the Dow Jones – the US stock market index – against how European oddsmakers have rated Trump’s chances of retaining the keys to the White House.

As indicated on the first graph, the Dow Jones began to drop significantly on 22nd February 2020 – which was the same day that Trump’s odds were the shortest they had ever been to win the November election.

Since then, both graphs share a negative correlation; as the Dow Jones has plummeted, oddsmakers have been slowly but surely lengthening the odds on the president and significantly shortening the odds of his main competitor Joe Biden. In just a one month period, Trump’s likelihood of winning another general election has decreased by over 14%, whilst Biden’s chances have increased nearly seven-fold.

However, on Monday 23rd March, the Dow Jones bucked the recent trend, enjoying its greatest daily change in 77 years. By the end of that same day, Donald Trump’s odds had risen by 3%, marking the first time that oddsmakers’ had improved his price since the beginning of February.

These trends are demonstrable of the notion that the economy – although admittedly a metric that any administration is judged up – is key to Trump and his hopes of a second term in office.


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