Elections are won and loss on the results from swing states and, if the movement in the betting market is anything to go by, Republicans are making inroads in three crucial states.
The trends from the 2012 and 2016 elections imply that the closest results in 2020 will occur in Arizona, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The Democratic party are favorites in the betting markets to win in seven of these states. However, current betting trends indicate the Republican party could potentially manoeuvre themselves into favortism in a handful of these markets.
Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in North Carolina back in 2016 and the odds over recent months have suggest Trump will claim another narrow victory. However, in the last couple of weeks five UK bookmakers have cut the odds on the Republican Party securing the Tar Heel State; the best price you can back the Republicans is now -120, where as the Democrats are +100.
These odds are indicative of a 50% chance of success for the Democrats, compared to 55% for the GOP.
Another state which is starting to look a little more optimistic for the Republicans is Pennsylvania. At the start of the month the party could have been backed at +175 to win the 2020 vote. However, the best price is now +150, with some bookmakers going +100. Despite this, the Democrats still remain favorites the Keystone State.
Lastly, the Republicans are also starting to gain traction in Wisconsin. Two bookmakers this week have cut their odds from +120 to -110. However, despite being odds-on with a couple of operators, one bookmaker is still offering +125, but they are likely to follow the lead of other firms.
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