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Presidential Election Odds: Trump's Chances Of Winning Lowest In 15 Months

President Trump has plummeted to 38% implied probability, compared to 58% for Joe Biden
| 4 min read
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Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2020 US Election have slipped to +163, the longest they have been since 25th March 2019.

The incumbent President’s odds have been steadily falling since the middle of April while the probable Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, has been going in the opposite direction.

It was on the June 2 that Biden overtook Trump to become the outright favorite to be the next POTUS, and the gap has continued to widen over the course of the month.

As of this morning, Trump’s odds of +163 are indicative of a 38.1% chance of winning, while Biden’s odds of -137 demonstrate a 57.9% likelihood of success.

Oddschecker spokesperson Pete Watt: “Four months ago, Trump’s chances were the highest they had ever been and Joe Biden was looking down and out as early Democratic primaries left him adrift of his rivals.”

“Fast forward to today and the landscape looks very different indeed; Biden is the presumptive Democratic nominee whilst Trump is being increasingly maligned – even within his own party – over his handling of what has been an extraordinary 2020.”

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