2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Trump's Odds Shorten But Biden Remains Favorite

The US Election might become a three way battle between Donald Trump, Joe Biden and Kanye West

Sam Eaton
Tue, July 7, 1:09 PM

2020 US Election Odds

It’s been a funny old week in US politics, just last week when we were recapping the election betting markets there was absolutely zero mention of Kanye West. However, the music mogul has catapulted himself into the race, and has some pretty big names endorsing his claims.

However, even though Kanye has made a late entrance into the race, at the moment it’s still very much a tussle between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

As mentioned in previous US Election betting recaps, Donald Trump’s stranglehold on the market disappeared when he slipped into second-favouritism in the market for only the second time during June 2020. The current president remains the second-favorite, but since the Kanye West news broke his odds have actually decreased slightly.

The table below shows Joe Biden is still the significant market leader, and therefore the most likely winner of the 2020 US Election.

Candidate

Odds (UK Format)

Odds (US Format)

Implied Percentage Chance

Return on $10 Bet...

Joe Biden

3/4

-133

57.1%

$17.52

Donald Trump

6/4

+150

40%

$25

Hillary Clinton

66/1

+6600

1.5%

$670

Mike Pence

66/1

+6600

1.5%

$670

Kanye West

80/1

+8000

1%

$810

(Data correct as of 07/07/2020)

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The odds used in the table below are taken from our UK site, where it’s legal to bet on the 2020 US Election. We work with all the biggest bookmakers in the UK and US, congregating their odds and betting data to formulate an overview of the market. The odds shown are the best odds on the market. Oddschecker helps users get the best odds for their bets as each bookmaker sets their own odds. For example, Kanye West’s odds might be 80/1 in the table above, but one bookmaker is offering 40/1 on him winning the US Election.

US Election Betting Trends

There’s been plenty of movement in the market since we last updated the table a week ago. See below:

Joe Biden’s US Election Odds

On the 30th of June, Joe Biden had a 61.9% chance of winning the US Election and was the clear market leader. Biden is still the favorite in the market, however, following the Kanye West news his odds chances have slipped from 61.9% to 57.1% chance.

Donald Trump’s US Election Odds

As previously mentioned, Donald Trump has been the favorite to win the 2020 Election for the majority of the time over the last couple of years. Last week, Trump had a 36.4% chance of winning the election according to the bookmakers, this increased this week to 40%.

Hillary Clinton’s US Election Odds

Hillary Clinton remains one of the outsiders to cause a shock and win the 2020 US Election. Clinton’s odds haven’t moved and she remains a 1.5% chance.

Mike Pence’s US Election Odds

If you look at the overall picture, Mike Pence’s odds have only moved slightly. His chances have gone from 1.4% to 1.5%. However, this is using the best odds on the market, other bookmakers have Pence as short as 33/1 (2.9% chance).

Kanye West’s US Election Odds

As you can imagine, Kanye West has been the big market mover. His odds have gone from 500/1 to 80/1 in the past week. Which mean his chances have gone from 0.2% to 1.2%. However, if you were to take the smallest odds available, West has a 2.4% of winning the US Election.

2020 US Election Betting

Betting patterns on political markets can be a great indicator to the actual results, which we showcase further down the article. Joe Biden might be the favorite with the bookmakers, but that’s certainly not the case with bettors.

US Election Betting Patterns From 2019

Just under 45% of bets placed on the 2020 US Presidential Election in 2019 were placed on Donald Trump. Trump’s support was someway clear of any other potential candidates, Bernie Sanders was the second most backed in 2019, accounting for just 9% of all bets.

Joe Biden was only the fourth most backed candidate in the market with 6.6% of bets, he found himself behind Trump, Sanders and Andrew Yang.

US Election Betting Patterns From 2020

Donald Trump’s stranglehold over the market increased in the early stage of 2020. From January 1st until the end of March, the current President accounted for 48% of all bets in the US Election market. Bernie Sanders was the second most supported with 18% of bets, and Joe Biden was third with 10.7% of wagers.

As the market whittled down to only realistic candidates, the percentage of bets Donald Trump accounted for grew. From the 1st of April until the end of June, Trump was responsible for 56% of all bets in the market, Biden’s percentage grew to 32%.

Below you’ll see a further breakdown of betting.

Candidate

2019 Betting Market Share

 

Candidate

2020 Betting Market Share

 

Candidate

Betting Market Share Since Kanye’s Tweet

Donald Trump

45%

 

Donald Trump

51.77%

 

Donald Trump

41.63%

Bernie Sanders

9.3%

 

Joe Biden

21.67%

 

Kanye West

29.82%

Andrew Yang

7.9%

 

Bernie Sanders

7.64%

 

Joe Biden

19.81%

Joe Biden

6.6%

 

Andrew Yang

1.14%

 

Mike Pence

2.16%

Elizabeth Warren

5.13%

 

Michael Bloomberg

2.47%

 

Michelle Obama

0.93%

Pete Buttigieg

3.8%

 

Hillary Clinton

1.84%

 

 

 

Kamala Harris

3.4%

 

Pete Buttigieg

1.19%

 

 

 

Kanye West

0.08%

 

Kanye West

0.99%

 

 

 

(Data correct as of 07/07/2020)

Celebrities in the 2020 US Election Betting Market

Like Kanye West, there have been various other celebrities linked with mounting a challenge for the 2020 US Election. Betfair exchange is the world's biggest online betting exchange where bettors bet against other bettors. There’s been over £44 million bet on the US Election market with Betfair, below are a few very surprising names and the amount staked on them in the market:

Candidate

Amount Bet

George Clooney

£1,617

Mark Zuckerberg

£9,222

Ivanka Trump

£20,554

Dwayne Johnson

£23,529

Mark Cuban

£33,023

Oprah Winfrey

£22,232

Angelina Jolie

£659

(Amounts correct as of 07/07/2020)

US Election Democratic VP Nominee Odds

The US Election Democratic VP betting market has been amongst the popular on Oddschecker over the last two months. There are a few more potential candidates in this market, but it’s topped by Kamala Harris who is currently priced at even money. There are only two other people in the market under 10/1, these are Susan Rice and Val Demmings.

Candidate

UK Odds

Implied Probability

2020 Betting Market Share

Kamala Harris

1/1

50%

25.16%

Susan Rice

4/1

20%

5.95%

Val Demmings

10/1

9.1%

6.6%

Tammy Duckworth

12/1

7.7%

4.1%

Elizabeth Warren

20/1

4.8%

7.1%

Michelle Obama

25/1

3.8%

10.28%

Michelle Obama Democratic VP Betting

Michelle Obama’s name has been linked with the Democratic VP role for a number of months now, and the chance of this happening have remained pretty consistent. The bookmakers are split on the possibility of this becoming a reality, one operator has her at 25/1, whereas another makes it a 14/1 chance.

Michelle Obama’s been the second most backed candidate in the Democratic VP market since the turn of the year, but her popularity in the market has gradually grown. In April 2020 she was the most backed person in the market, accounting for 22% of all bets placed.

How reliable are the betting markets?

UK betting data has been a reliable source for previous political betting markets and is used by various sources to predict future developments. In 2016, Donald Trump dominated the market in terms of bets placed. Brexit was another event that betting data correctly predicted.

 

Remain/Clinton

Leave/Trump

Brexit

27%

73%

2016 US Election

39%

61%

Can US residents bet on the 2020 US Election?

No legal operator will take bets on the 2020 US Election in the United States of America currently. This is not expected to change before the 2020 US Election. However, online betting is legal on sports, and is opening up on a state-by-state basis.

Oddschecker works with the biggest US bookmakers to ensure bettors get the best odds available. We help users beat the odds for events such as the Super Bowl. Check here which operators are avialble in your state and access thousands of dollars in free bets.

Further information

Betting markets are a solid predictor for political markets. Oddschecker collects data from the world's biggest bookmakers, and remains a neutral voice in the market.

Keep up to date with all the latest 2020 US Election betting news! Sign-up to our FREE mailer.

Oddschecker has been used as a reference point by some of the biggest publications in the US, if you would like more information/data please contact: useditor@oddschecker.com

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