2020 US Presidential Election Odds: 69% Of Wagers Backing Donald Trump
2020 US Presidential Election Odds
Compared to the previous week, it’s been a pretty mundane seven day on the US Election betting front. Kanye West spiced up the betting market last week by throwing his name into the hat, which caused bookmakers to cut his 2020 US Election odds. However, the market has returned to previous trends with no dramatic twist since Kanye’s tweet.
Joe Biden continues to top the betting market, and he’s witnessed his odds shorten ever so slightly in the previous seven days. Last Tuesday, Biden was available to back at -133, which implied a 57.1% chance of winning the US Election. However, the best price now on the market is -137, which implies a 57.9% chance.
Donald Trump’s US Election chances have decreased slightly over the last week, Trump’s odds have slipped from +150 to +163. His odds now suggest he only has a 38.1% chance of winning the US Election.
Kanye West’s US Election campaign has hardly gathered in momentum since his social media announcement. Kanye West’s US Election chances have slipped from 1.2% to 1%, as he’s now +10000 in the US Election betting market.
That said, a couple of bookmakers still have him at +5000, which would imply he still has a 2% chance of winning the US Election.
| Candidate | Odds (UK Format) | Odds (US Format) | Implied Percentage Chance | Return on $10 Bet... |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 8/11 | -137 | 57.9% | $17.30 |
| Donald Trump | 13/8 | +163 | 38.1% | $26.30 |
| Hillary Clinton | 66/1 | +6600 | 1.5% | $670 |
| Mike Pence | 66/1 | +6600 | 1.5% | $670 |
| Kanye West | 100/1 | +8000 | 1% | $1010 |
(Data correct as of 13/07/2020)
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US Election Betting Market
The odds in the table above are all taken from our UK site. It’s legal to bet on the 2020 US Election market in various countries including the UK. We partner with the worlds biggest betting sites in the UK and US to ensure bettors can get the best odds on every event. The odds above are the best odds available on the market.
2020 US Presidential Election Betting Trends
Joe Biden’s chances of winning the 2020 US Election
Before Kanye West’s shock announcement to try and make a late bid for the White House, the chances of Joe Biden winning the 2020 US Election was 61.9%. As the table above shows, his chances have dropped to 57.9%, but they have improved by 0.8% in the last week.
Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2020 US Election
Donald Trump was the favorite to win the 2020 US Election for well over a year until June. Since then he’s been overtaken in the market by Joe Biden. Donald Trump’s chances of winning the US Election have decreased from 40% to 38.1% in the last week. In early May, bookmakers thought Donald Trump had a 61.9% chance of winning the 2020 US Election.
Kanye West’s chance of winning the 2020 US Election
Kanye West went from +50000 to +8000 overnight when he announced his 2020 campaign. That move meant his chances of winning the 2020 US Election went from 0.2% to 1.2%. However, as the table shows his chances have since dropped to 1%.
2020 US Presidential Election Betting
Betting patterns on political markets are used as key indicator by some of the biggest publishers around the world. Below you’ll see how they’ve actually predicted the outcome of a couple of major events over the last few years.
The table below shows the amount of bets placed on the outcome of an event. In both scenarios the bookmakers favorite lost and the public bet correctly.
| 1 | Remain/Clinton | Leave/Trump |
|---|---|---|
| Brexit | 27% | 73% |
| 2016 US Election | 39% | 61% |
Betting on the 2020 US Election
We showcased last week how Donald Trump had been the popular option in the betting market since the 2020 US Election market formed. In 2019, Donald Trump accounted for 45% of all bets, Bernie Sanders was the second most backed in the market with 9.3% of bets.
The trend has changed in 2020, Donald Trump has still accounted for the majority of bets in the market. However, Joe Biden has moved into the second most backed candidate. See the full breakdown below.
No legal operator will take bets on the 2020 US Election in the United States of America currently. This is not expected to change before the 2020 US Election. However, online betting is legal on sports, and is opening up on a state-by-state basis.
Oddschecker works with the biggest US bookmakers to ensure bettors get the best odds available. We help users beat the odds for events such as the Super Bowl. Check here which operators are avialble in your state and access thousands of dollars in free bets.
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| 3 | 6 | Candidate | 2019 Betting Market Share | 2020 Betting Market Share | Last Seven Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 45% | 51.93% | 54.37% | ||
| Joe Biden | 9.3% | 22.02% | 28.46% | ||
| Kanye West | 7.9% | 8.68% | 9.16% | ||
| Mike Pence | 6.6% | 1.03% | 1.49% | ||
| Michelle Obama | 5.13% | 2.36% | 0.72% | ||
| 3.8% | 1.81% | ||||
| 3.4% | 1.14% | ||||
| 0.08% | 1.3% |
(Data correct as of 13/07/2020)
Even though Donald Trump has accounted for 54.37% of all bets placed in the market. The percentage share of money wagered on the market is considerably bigger.
| 3 | 6 | Candidate | 2019 Percentage of Wagers | 2020 Percentage of Wagers | Last Seven Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 60.39% | 68% | 68.98% | ||
| Joe Biden | 7.38% | 14.06% | 22.31% | ||
| Kanye West | 6.98% | 6.71% | 8.31% |
Celebrities in the 2020 US Election Betting Market
There have been various rumours floating about over the previous four years about celebrities trying their hand at politics. Kanye West is the only one to do date to officially enter the market, however, this hasn’t stopped bettors wagering on other potential options. Betfair exchange is the world's biggest online betting exchange where bettors bet against other bettors. There’s been over £46 million bet on the US Election market with Betfair, below are a few very surprising names and the amount staked on them in the market:
| Candidate | Amount Bet |
|---|---|
| George Clooney | £1,617 |
| Mark Zuckerberg | £9,222 |
| Ivanka Trump | £20,554 |
| Dwayne Johnson | £24,197 |
| Mark Cuban | £36,444 |
| Oprah Winfrey | £22,232 |
| Angelina Jolie | £659 |
(Amounts correct as of 13/07/2020)
2020 US Election Democratic VP Nominee Odds
Currently the second most popular politics market in the world is the Democratic VP Nominee market. This market is a lot more competitive than the US Election market (as expected), as there are various candidates all who have a 5% or more chance of becoming the VP Nominee.
Over the last seven days, Val Demmings Democratic VP Nominee odds have slipped from 10/1 to 14/1, which means her chances have gone from 9.1% to 6.7%. Tammy Duckworth’s chances have improved, as she now has a 10% chances, compared to 4.1% just a week ago.
| Candidate | UK Deomicrate VP Nominee Odds | Implied Probability | Last seven days Betting Market Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | 21/20 | 48.8% | 32.17% |
| Susan Rice | 5/1 | 16.7% | 15.5% |
| Val Demmings | 14/1 | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| Tammy Duckworth | 9/1 | 10% | 15.7% |
| Elizabeth Warren | 20/1 | 4.8% | 6.2% |
| Michelle Obama | 20/1 | 4.8% | 6.98% |
Michelle Obama’s Democratic VP Odds
Michelle Obama’s name has been linked with the Democratic VP position for the last couple of month. Despite the bookmakers shortening Obama’s odds to 20/1 in the last seven days, she still remains the 5th favorite in the market.
That said, even though her odds imply she has a 4.8% chance of being the Democratic VP, another bookmakers odds actually gives her a 9.1% chance.
She’s been the second most backed candidate in the market in 2020, accounting for 10.1% of all bets.
Further information
Betting markets are a solid predictor for political markets. Oddschecker collects data from the world's biggest bookmakers, and remains a neutral voice in the market.
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