British oddsmakers’ priced up which way each state would vote in the 2020 general election back in March, and Oddschecker has been tracking how the odds have changed every day since then.
And for the state of Texas, the trends suggest we may be edging closer to an upset in 2020.
When the market opened back on March 5th 2020, the Republican Party was installed as favorites with odds of -400, which is an implied chance of 80%. The Democrats, by comparison, were firm underdogs with their odds of +275 indicative of just a 26.70% chance.
However, as the graphic below indicates, the gap between the two has been slowly but steadily closed over the past four months; initially, the GOP were over three times likelier to win, compared to just over twice as likely today.
Oddschecker spokesperson Pete Watt: “Much has been made of Joe Biden’s decision to launch his first campaign advert in Texas, seemingly indicating his belief that it can be won by the Democrats for the first time since Jimmy Carter in 1976.”
“Whilst oddsmakers’ clearly still believe that Trump will retain Texas, it will be intriguing to see if and how these odds continue to change in the coming months.”