2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Joe Biden Has A 61% Chance Of Beating Donald Trump

It was another bad week for Donald Trump as Joe Biden’s odds shortened dramatically
Sam Eaton
Mon, July 20, 5:48 AM EDT

2020 US Election Odds

It’s been another big week in for the race for the Whitehouse. Kanye West appeared to make policy decisions off-the-cuff in Charleston rally, and Donald Trump slipped even further behind Joe Biden in the 2020 US Election betting market.

Kanye West’s Charleston rally did nothing to settle the debate whether his campaign was a genuine bid at winning the US Election. However, it did reveal a few where his party stood on a few topical issues. Also, if you needed any re-affirmation if Kanye was committed to the campaign, he appeared on stage with “2020” shaved into the back of his head.

Joe Biden’s recent dominance of the betting market intensified this week. This time last week, we reported that Joe Biden was -137 (8/11) to win the 2020 US Election, which implied he had a 57.9% of doing so. However, in the space of seven days his odds have shortened to -154 (13/20), which no implies he has a 60.6% chance.

As you’ll expect Donald Trumps chances have moved in the opposite direction to Joe Biden’s. Last week, the current US President was +163 (13/8) to win the US Election, however his odds have drifted out to +175 (7/4). This means his chances of winning the 2020 election have gone from 38.1% to 36.4% in the space of a week.

Interestingly, one UK bookmaker has dramatically cut both Hillary Clinton’ and Michelle Obama’s odds to win the 2020 US Election. They have gone +2500 (25/1) on Hillary Clinton and +5000 (50/1) on Michelle Obama. However, as you’ll see the best odds on the market are far greater than these two prices.

Candidate

Odds (UK Format)

Odds (US Format)

Implied Percentage Chance

Return on $10 Bet...

Joe Biden

13/20

-154

60.6%

$16.49

Donald Trump

7/4

+175

36.4%

$$27.50

Hillary Clinton

66/1

+6600

1.5%

$670

Mike Pence

80/1

+8000

1.2%

$1260

Kanye West

125/1

+12500

0.8%

$1010

Michelle Obama

100/1

+10000

1%

$1010

(Data correct as of 20/07/2020)

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2020 US Election Betting Market

The odds in the table above are all taken from our UK site. It’s not legal to bet on the 2020 US Election in the US currently, however, there are plenty of other countries worldwide which offer 2020 US Election Odds. We partner with the worlds biggest betting sites in the UK and US to ensure bettors get the best odds on every single bet. The odds above are using the best odds currently on the market.

2020 US Presidential Election Betting Trends

What are Joe Biden’s chances of winning the 2020 US Election?

Joe Biden’s odds still haven’t caught up to the state they were in pre Kanye West’s election announcement. In the week leading up to Kanye’s shock announcement, Joe Biden’s implied probability of winning the 2020 US Election was 61.9%. However his chance have greatly improved from the 57.9% chance seen this time last week.

Joe Biden’s momentum has grown rapidly during 2020, he entered the year with odds suggesting he only had a 5.9% chance.

What are Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2020 US Election?

Donald Trump was the long-time favorite in the betting market, however, he’s not been favorite since Joe Biden overtook him in the middle of May. Donald Trump’s latest implied probability of winning the 2020 US Election is the joint-worse it’s been in since late February.

What are Kanye West’s chances of winning the 2020 US Election?

To be frank, pretty slim. Despite his Charleston rally, Kanye West’s odds of winning the US Election have slipped out to +12500. At this price, his implied probability of winning the US Election is 0.8%.

2020 US Election Betting Compared to 2016 US Election and Brexit

Betting patterns are used a key predictor by the majority of big publications around the world. Newspapers, radio stations and TV programmes will all quote betting patterns when discussing political events. This is unsurprising given that betting patterns have actually predicted two of the biggest political events in recent history.

The table below shows the amount of bets placed on the outcome of an event. In both scenarios the bookmakers favorite lost and the public bet correctly.

 

Remain/Clinton

Leave/Trump

Brexit

27%

73%

2016 US Election

39%

61%

Can US residents bet on the 2020 US Election?

Even thought online betting is now legal in various states in the US, no legal operator will take bets on the 2020 US Election. Unfortunately this isn’t expected to change before the 2020 US Election. However, online betting is legal on sports, and is opening up on a state-by-state basis.

Oddschecker works with the biggest US bookmakers to ensure bettors get the best odds available. We help users beat the odds for events such as the Super Bowl. Check here which operators are available in your state and access thousands of dollars in free bets.

Despite online betting not being available on the US election, people based in the US can play DraftKings free fantasy league.

The prize for the main pool leading into the election is $100,000, and DraftKings also hopes to have additional smaller pools each month leading up to the election, including both National Conventions and all three presidential debates.

2020 US Election Betting Overview

Donald Trump has been the popular option in the betting market since the 2020 US Election market formed. In 2019, Donald Trump accounted for 45% of all bets, Bernie Sanders was the second most backed in the market with 9.3% of bets.

This betting trend has continued into 2020, Donald Trump still holds the majority of the market share, however, Joe Biden has replaced Bernie Sanders as the second most backed candidate.

Below you’ll see a full breakdown of the betting patterns in the 2020 US Election betting market for 2019, 2020 and the last seven days.

Candidate

2019 Betting Market Share

 

Candidate

2020 Betting Market Share

 

Candidate

Last Seven Days

Donald Trump

45%

 

Donald Trump

52.21%

 

Donald Trump

58.84%

Bernie Sanders

9.3%

 

Joe Biden

22.32%

 

Joe Biden

29.63%

Andrew Yang

7.9%

 

Bernie Sanders

8.36%

 

Kanye West

3.6%

Joe Biden

6.6%

 

Andrew Yang

0.99%

 

Mike Pence

1.54%

Elizabeth Warren

5.13%

 

Michael Bloomberg

2.28%

 

Michelle Obama

0.93%

Pete Buttigieg

3.8%

 

Hillary Clinton

1.78%

 

 

 

Kamala Harris

3.4%

 

Pete Buttigieg

1.1%

 

 

 

Kanye West

0.08%

 

Kanye West

1.39%

 

 

 

(Data correct as of 20/07/2020)

Even though Donald Trump’s 2020 US Election odds have drifted in the last seven days, his share of the betting market has increased from 54.37% to 52.21%. Kanye West has been the biggest loser in the market, his betting share has dropped from 9.16% to 3.6%.

When looking at betting patterns it’s also always good to take a look at the actual money wagered. The table above shows the individual number of bets, the one below shows the actual amount wagered. For example, Kanye West might have a lot of $1 bets placed which will impact the table above, but will be outweighed by a sizeable bet on another candidate in the table below.

Will Kanye West be on state ballots?

Due to Kanye West’s late entrance to the 2020 US Election race, he missed the deadline to appear on the ballot on several states. He appeared on the Oklahoma presidential ballot last week, which was his first since announcing his intentions on Twitter. If we wants to appear on the South Carolina ballot he needs to collect 10,000 signatures by midday on Monday.

Candidate

2019 Percentage of Wagers

 

Candidate

2020 Percentage of Wagers

 

Candidate

Last Seven Days

Donald Trump

60.39%

 

Donald Trump

69.95%

 

Donald Trump

88%

Andrew Yang

7.38%

 

Joe Biden

13.77%

 

Joe Biden

11%

Bernie Sanders

6.98%

 

Michelle Obama

6.07%

 

Kanye West

0.3%

Donald Trump’s dominated the market in terms of money wagered this week.

2020 US Election Democratic VP Nominee Odds

Vice President Odds

The Vice President odds market is one of the most popular betting markets in the world at the minute, with people speculating who will fill the position.

Kamal Harris remains the favorite in the market, and her odds have barely moved in the previous seven days.

The most notable move in the Vice President odds market has been Susan Rice. Online bookmakers have cut her odds from +500 to +300 in the last seven days making her the second favorite behind Kamala Harris. Tammy Duckworth’s Vice President odds have also been cut, her odds have gone from +900 to +650 in the last seven days.

Kamala Harris has also proven to be a popular pick with online bettors, however, it’s worth noting Elizabeth support has grown from 6.2% to 10.51% in the last seven days.

Candidate

UK Deomicrate VP Nominee Odds

Implied Probability

Last seven days Betting Market Share

Kamala Harris

6/4 (+150)

40%

32.12%

Susan Rice

3/1 (+300)

25%

11.13%

Val Demmings

14/1 (+1400)

6.7%

2.83%

Tammy Duckworth

13/2 (+650)

13.3%

12.53%

Elizabeth Warren

20/1 (+2000)

4.8%

10.51%

Michelle Obama

25/1 (+2500)

2.9%

3.8%

Michelle Lujan Grisham

33/1 (+3300)

2.9%

2.02%

Michelle Obama’s Democratic Vice President Odds

Will Michelle Obama be the Vice President? The answer to this question is starting to look clearer, and unfortunately for Michelle Obama fans the answer looks like it will be a negative one.

One online bookmaker now only gives Michelle Obama a 3.8% chance of being the Vice President. However, looking at this more positively, there are two bookmakers who are offering 10/1 (+10000) odds on Obama being the Vice President. If you took these odds, the implied probability would be 9.1%.

If you don’t understand betting, the best way of looking at this is to compare Michelle Obama’s odds to NFL teams chances of winning the Super Bowl.

At 25/1 Michelle Obama is the same price as New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl.

At 10/1 Michelle Obama is the same price as San Francisco to win the Super Bowl.

Further information

Betting markets are a solid predictor for political markets. Oddschecker collects data from the world's biggest bookmakers, and remains a neutral voice in the market.

Keep up to date with all the latest 2020 US Election betting news! Sign-up to our FREE mailer.

Oddschecker has ben used as a reference point by some of the biggest publications in the US, if you would like more information/data please contact: useditor@oddschecker.com

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