2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Joe Biden Has A 61% Chance Of Beating Donald Trump
2020 US Election Odds
It’s been another big week in for the race for the Whitehouse. Kanye West appeared to make policy decisions off-the-cuff in Charleston rally, and Donald Trump slipped even further behind Joe Biden in the 2020 US Election betting market.
Kanye West’s Charleston rally did nothing to settle the debate whether his campaign was a genuine bid at winning the US Election. However, it did reveal a few where his party stood on a few topical issues. Also, if you needed any re-affirmation if Kanye was committed to the campaign, he appeared on stage with “2020” shaved into the back of his head.
Joe Biden’s recent dominance of the betting market intensified this week. This time last week, we reported that Joe Biden was -137 (8/11) to win the 2020 US Election, which implied he had a 57.9% of doing so. However, in the space of seven days his odds have shortened to -154 (13/20), which no implies he has a 60.6% chance.
As you’ll expect Donald Trumps chances have moved in the opposite direction to Joe Biden’s. Last week, the current US President was +163 (13/8) to win the US Election, however his odds have drifted out to +175 (7/4). This means his chances of winning the 2020 election have gone from 38.1% to 36.4% in the space of a week.
Interestingly, one UK bookmaker has dramatically cut both Hillary Clinton’ and Michelle Obama’s odds to win the 2020 US Election. They have gone +2500 (25/1) on Hillary Clinton and +5000 (50/1) on Michelle Obama. However, as you’ll see the best odds on the market are far greater than these two prices.
|Candidate||Odds (UK Format)||Odds (US Format)||Implied Percentage Chance||Return on $10 Bet...|
(Data correct as of 20/07/2020)
2020 US Election Betting Market
The odds in the table above are all taken from our UK site. It’s not legal to bet on the 2020 US Election in the US currently, however, there are plenty of other countries worldwide which offer 2020 US Election Odds. We partner with the worlds biggest betting sites in the UK and US to ensure bettors get the best odds on every single bet. The odds above are using the best odds currently on the market.
2020 US Presidential Election Betting Trends
What are Joe Biden’s chances of winning the 2020 US Election?
Joe Biden’s odds still haven’t caught up to the state they were in pre Kanye West’s election announcement. In the week leading up to Kanye’s shock announcement, Joe Biden’s implied probability of winning the 2020 US Election was 61.9%. However his chance have greatly improved from the 57.9% chance seen this time last week.
Joe Biden’s momentum has grown rapidly during 2020, he entered the year with odds suggesting he only had a 5.9% chance.
What are Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2020 US Election?
Donald Trump was the long-time favorite in the betting market, however, he’s not been favorite since Joe Biden overtook him in the middle of May. Donald Trump’s latest implied probability of winning the 2020 US Election is the joint-worse it’s been in since late February.
What are Kanye West’s chances of winning the 2020 US Election?
To be frank, pretty slim. Despite his Charleston rally, Kanye West’s odds of winning the US Election have slipped out to +12500. At this price, his implied probability of winning the US Election is 0.8%.
2020 US Election Betting Compared to 2016 US Election and Brexit
Betting patterns are used a key predictor by the majority of big publications around the world. Newspapers, radio stations and TV programmes will all quote betting patterns when discussing political events. This is unsurprising given that betting patterns have actually predicted two of the biggest political events in recent history.
The table below shows the amount of bets placed on the outcome of an event. In both scenarios the bookmakers favorite lost and the public bet correctly.
|2016 US Election||39%||61%|
Can US residents bet on the 2020 US Election?
Even thought online betting is now legal in various states in the US, no legal operator will take bets on the 2020 US Election. Unfortunately this isn’t expected to change before the 2020 US Election. However, online betting is legal on sports, and is opening up on a state-by-state basis.
Oddschecker works with the biggest US bookmakers to ensure bettors get the best odds available. We help users beat the odds for events such as the Super Bowl. Check here which operators are available in your state and access thousands of dollars in free bets.
Despite online betting not being available on the US election, people based in the US can play DraftKings free fantasy league.
The prize for the main pool leading into the election is $100,000, and DraftKings also hopes to have additional smaller pools each month leading up to the election, including both National Conventions and all three presidential debates.
2020 US Election Betting Overview
Donald Trump has been the popular option in the betting market since the 2020 US Election market formed. In 2019, Donald Trump accounted for 45% of all bets, Bernie Sanders was the second most backed in the market with 9.3% of bets.
This betting trend has continued into 2020, Donald Trump still holds the majority of the market share, however, Joe Biden has replaced Bernie Sanders as the second most backed candidate.
Below you’ll see a full breakdown of the betting patterns in the 2020 US Election betting market for 2019, 2020 and the last seven days.
|3||6||Candidate||2019 Betting Market Share||2020 Betting Market Share||Last Seven Days|
(Data correct as of 20/07/2020)
Even though Donald Trump’s 2020 US Election odds have drifted in the last seven days, his share of the betting market has increased from 54.37% to 52.21%. Kanye West has been the biggest loser in the market, his betting share has dropped from 9.16% to 3.6%.
When looking at betting patterns it’s also always good to take a look at the actual money wagered. The table above shows the individual number of bets, the one below shows the actual amount wagered. For example, Kanye West might have a lot of $1 bets placed which will impact the table above, but will be outweighed by a sizeable bet on another candidate in the table below.
Will Kanye West be on state ballots?
Due to Kanye West’s late entrance to the 2020 US Election race, he missed the deadline to appear on the ballot on several states. He appeared on the Oklahoma presidential ballot last week, which was his first since announcing his intentions on Twitter. If we wants to appear on the South Carolina ballot he needs to collect 10,000 signatures by midday on Monday.
|3||6||Candidate||2019 Percentage of Wagers||2020 Percentage of Wagers||Last Seven Days|
Donald Trump’s dominated the market in terms of money wagered this week.
2020 US Election Democratic VP Nominee Odds
Vice President Odds
The Vice President odds market is one of the most popular betting markets in the world at the minute, with people speculating who will fill the position.
Kamal Harris remains the favorite in the market, and her odds have barely moved in the previous seven days.
The most notable move in the Vice President odds market has been Susan Rice. Online bookmakers have cut her odds from +500 to +300 in the last seven days making her the second favorite behind Kamala Harris. Tammy Duckworth’s Vice President odds have also been cut, her odds have gone from +900 to +650 in the last seven days.
Kamala Harris has also proven to be a popular pick with online bettors, however, it’s worth noting Elizabeth support has grown from 6.2% to 10.51% in the last seven days.
|Candidate||UK Deomicrate VP Nominee Odds||Implied Probability||Last seven days Betting Market Share|
|Kamala Harris||6/4 (+150)||40%||32.12%|
|Susan Rice||3/1 (+300)||25%||11.13%|
|Val Demmings||14/1 (+1400)||6.7%||2.83%|
|Tammy Duckworth||13/2 (+650)||13.3%||12.53%|
|Elizabeth Warren||20/1 (+2000)||4.8%||10.51%|
|Michelle Obama||25/1 (+2500)||2.9%||3.8%|
|Michelle Lujan Grisham||33/1 (+3300)||2.9%||2.02%|
Michelle Obama’s Democratic Vice President Odds
Will Michelle Obama be the Vice President? The answer to this question is starting to look clearer, and unfortunately for Michelle Obama fans the answer looks like it will be a negative one.
One online bookmaker now only gives Michelle Obama a 3.8% chance of being the Vice President. However, looking at this more positively, there are two bookmakers who are offering 10/1 (+10000) odds on Obama being the Vice President. If you took these odds, the implied probability would be 9.1%.
If you don’t understand betting, the best way of looking at this is to compare Michelle Obama’s odds to NFL teams chances of winning the Super Bowl.
At 25/1 Michelle Obama is the same price as New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl.
At 10/1 Michelle Obama is the same price as San Francisco to win the Super Bowl.
Betting markets are a solid predictor for political markets. Oddschecker collects data from the world's biggest bookmakers, and remains a neutral voice in the market.
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