2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Donald Trump Popular With Bettors Despite Joe Biden Being Favorite
2020 US Presidential Election Betting Odds
There’s been very little movement in the 2020 US Election odds market over the last week or so, Joe Biden remains the bookmaker’s favourite at -162, which implies he has a 61.9% chance of being victorious in November.
Biden’s US election odds have lengthened slightly over the last week, which means his chances drifted from 62.5% to 61.9%.
Donald Trump’s election odds have remained the same since we last reported any movements in the market. Online sports betting sites have the current President at +175, which means he has a 36.4% chance of winning the US election.
|Candidate||Odds (UK Format)||Odds (US Format)||Implied Percentage Chance|
Kanye West’s US Election dream looks over, despite one bookmaker cutting his odds from +40000 to +30000, his odds still imply he only has a 0.3% chance of winning the US Election.
Donald Trump’s 2020 US Election Odds
Last week was the first time Donald Trump’s 2020 Election winning probability had dropped below his 2016 Election winning probability. Donald Trump had been the long-time favourite in the 2020 US Election betting market before being replaced at the top of the market by Joe Biden in late May.
At one stage in late February, Donald Trump’s US Election odds implied he had a 62.5% chance of winning the election in November.
The graph below compares Donald Trump’s 2016 Election odds against his 2020 Election odds.
Joe Biden’s 2020 US Election Odds
As mentioned above, Joe Biden replaced Donald Trump as favorite in the 2020 US Election betting market in late May, and his odds have shortened ever since. However, it hasn’t been a smooth ride for Joe Biden. On the 12th February, Joe Biden’s election odds implied he only a 2.9% chance of winning the 2020 election.
2020 US Presidential Election Betting Breakdown
Despite Joe Biden topping the 2020 US Election betting market, he’s never been the popular option with bettors. The betting pattern for the 2020 Election has followed a very similar flow to the 2016 election, where Donald Trump was the popular pick with online bettors.
|4||Candidate||% of bets accounted (2020)||% of money wagered (2020)||% of bets accounted (August)||% of money wagered (August)|
The table above shows that Donald Trump has not only been the most bet candidate, but also has had the most money wagered. This indicates that less big staking betters (high-rollers) are willing to put their money on Joe Biden.
Why is this interesting? This becomes really interesting when you compare the current betting markets to two previous political markets, the 2016 US Election and Brexit.
The table below shows the amount of bets placed on the outcome of two major political events. In both scenarios the bookmakers favorite lost and the public bet correctly. If the trend from the last two major politics betting markets was to continue, despite not being the favorite in the betting market, Donald Trump would actually win the 2020 US Election.
|2016 US Election||39%||61%|
Donald Trump vs TikTok
One Australian bookmaker has given odds on TikTok being banned in the United States by the end of August. The odds suggest it’s good news for all the video loving teens out there, as the odds imply there’s a 91% chance TikTok won’t be banned this month. These chance have significantly improved over the last couple of days, previously the odds suggested there was a 41% chance it would be banned.
2020 US Election Betting
Online sports betting is legal in various states in the United States, however, you can’t legally bet on the US Election. Therefore all of our data above is based on UK betting trends. Even though, it’s the US election, it will be one of the biggest betting events not only in the UK but globally.
As mentioned, US residents can’t legally bet on the US Presidential Election, they can still play Draftkings $100,000 fantasy game, and try and predict the outcomes of various events to win the top prize. Click the link below to find out more.