2020 US Election Odds: Odds Show Trump Closing The Gap On Biden In Minnesota

The UK betting markets suggest the vote in Minnesota could be closer than many imagined months ago
Tom Dodd
Fri, September 18, 11:25 AM EDT

As we wrote earlier this week, Donald Trump is making gains in many of the key swing states. Over the past month, the Republican party have made gains (according to the oddsmakers) in states such as Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Michigan. That appears to be the case in a state that so many thought was done and dusted for the Democrats.

The state in questions is Minnesota. UK bookmakers made a Democratic win in Minnesota odds of 2/11 (85% implied probability) back on August 1. Basically… huge favorites.

However, the odds have gone in the wrong direction since then for Joe Biden. Now, odds for a Democratic win are at just an implied probability percentage of 63.6% (UK odds of 4/7). Dems needn’t be too concerned just yet, they’re clearly the favorites still but as you can see from the graphic below, the Republicans are gaining rapidly.

In contrast, you could have backed Donald Trump’s Republicans at odds of 100/30 (23% implied probability) on August 1, whereas now they shortened in the betting to 36.4% (7/4 odds).

Betting on the US Election

Betting on the US Election isn’t legal in the US yet despite online sports betting being legal in many states. See which bookmakers you can bet within your state here. All the data we use is from our UK website which has millions of users each month checking odds.

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2020 US Election - Latest Odds & Betting Data

Despite the betting odds shifting in the swing states and in Minnesota, Joe Biden remains the betting favorite to win the 2020 Election, but odds for a Donald Trump have dropped in recent weeks.

On August 4, Joe Biden’s US Election odds suggested he had a 61.9% chance of winning, now it has slipped to just a 54.5% chance of coming out on top. Trump now has a 50% chance of retaining the White House, odds which have increased 2% in the past week.

 

UK Odds

US Odds

Implied Probability

Joe Biden

5/6

-120

54.5%

Donald Trump

1/1

+100

50%

With three head-to-head debates scheduled before the US Election on November 3, there is still plenty of time for huge shifts in terms of odds, depending on who comes out on top in the debates. Even before those debates, the first of which is nearly a fortnight away, there is almost daily movement in terms of odds as bettors look to take advantage of every news story which comes out

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