2020 US Election Odds: Odds Of Winning Florida Swing In Trump's Favor

The last time the Republicans were the betting favorites to win the Sunshine State was May 14
Pete Watt
Thu, September 24, 1:24 PM

2020 US Election Odds: Odds Of Winning Florida Swing In Trump's Favor

Perceived as one of the key ‘swing states’ of the 2020 Presidential Election, Florida will be hotly contested by Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

OddsChecker has been tracking the odds from British sportsbooks – where political betting is legal, regulated and thriving – for which party is likely to secure Florida, and there has been an interesting development in the past few days.

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As the graphic below depicts, the GOP opened as favorites when the market was created on March 5th, with their odds of -225 indicative of a 69.20% chance. This put them ahead of the Democrats on +163 (38.10% chance).

However, the Democrats quickly closed the gap and by the middle of May oddsmakers gave both parties a 50/50 chance.

In the months since then, the Democrats opened up a healthy lead – at one point being deemed 22.5% more likely to win Florida.

However, since the middle of August the gap has been closing and today – for the first time in over five months, the GOP are once again the frontrunners to retain the state they won in 2016.

Oddschecker spokesperson Pete Watt: “We’ve been tracking a number of swing states since the beginning of the year and the closest and most interesting one has, by far, been Florida.”

“With under two months to go until election day, interest in these markets will continue to build so we can expect plenty more activity – and twists – before 3rd November.”

2020 US Election Odds - Latest Betting

  UK Odds US Odds Implied Probability
Joe Biden 5/6 -120 54.5%
Donald Trump 11/10 +110 47.6%

As you can see, Joe Biden is the slight favorite to take the 2020 US Election, but with three head-to-head debates scheduled before November 3, there is still plenty of time for huge shifts in terms of odds, depending on who comes out on top in the debates. Even before those debates, the first of which is nearly a fortnight away, there is almost daily movement in terms of odds as bettors look to take advantage of every news story which comes out.

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